NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500
Darlington Raceway
Saturday 09/03/23 6:00 PM
1.366 mile concrete oval
What’s up, 4Deep. PLAYOFF TIME BABY!!! THIS IS WHERE THE GOAT SHINES!! Headed to Darlington Raceway for this 367-lap event.
Last Race Notables: Byron won. Truex led 145 laps, Chastain led 93 laps, Larson led 29 laps, Hamlin led 9 laps, Byron led 7 laps. Start/Finish: Harvick 20/2, Elliott 21/3, Haley 22/8, Buescher 27/10, Gilliland 24/11, Preece 32/15, Briscoe 31/17, LaJoie 34/24.
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, which makes place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them and really separate them from the pack.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
| Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
| Hamlin | 153 | Byron | 2023 | Truex | 222 | Logano | 7.8 |
| Logano | 151 | Jones | 2022 | Larson | 215 | Hamlin | 9 |
| Bell | 142 | Logano | 2022 | Hamlin | 203 | Harvick | 11 |
| Byron | 139 | Hamlin | 2021 | Kyle Busch | 174 | Bell | 11.3 |
| Harvick | 123 | Truex | 2021 | Logano | 171 | Reddick | 11.3 |
| Chastain | 117 | Harvick | 2020 | Chastain | 121 | Kes | 13 |
| Blaney | 109 | Hamlin | 2020 | Byron | 81 | Preece | 13.5 |
| Kes | 107 | Harvick | 2020 | Harvick | 26 | Burton | 13.7 |
| Larson | 105 | Jones | 2019 | Jones | 26 | Haley | 13.8 |
| Reddick | 105 | Keselowski | 2018 | Blaney | 21 | Byron | 14 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Top Tier:
- Martin Truex Jr ($10,800) – Starting 31st.
- Denny Hamlin ($11,000) – Starting 2nd.
- Kyle Larson ($10,500) – Starting 18th.
- William Byron ($10,200) – Starting 23rd.
Mid Tier:
- Joey Logano ($9,000) – Starting 6th.
- Chris Buescher ($8,900) – Starting 8th.
- Ryan Blaney ($8,600) – Starting 4th.
- Brad Keselowski ($8,700) – Starting 5th.
Sleepers:
- Ryan Preese ($5,900) – Starting 34th.
- Justin Haley ($5,500) – Starting 29th.
- Austin Cindric ($6,100) – Starting 14th.
- Ty Gibbs ($7,200) – Starting 17th.
- Todd Gilliland ($5,200) – Starting 30th.
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or GOAT in Discord.
