GOAT’s 10/1/23 YellaWood 500 DraftKings Plays

NASCAR YellaWood 500
Talladega Superspeedway
Sunday 10/1/23 2:00 PM
2.66 mile, Paved

Playoffs at a Superspeedway…………Great Idea!  This is a 188-lap event.  

We are at Talladega this weekend.  A superspeedway where the “Big One” always happens.  The “Big One” is an accident that takes out many of the top drivers.  This happens due to how close the cars run together at very high speeds.  Trust me, it is not a matter of if, but when, this will happen at superspeedways (Talladega and Daytona).  This is a 188-lap event.  One rule of thumb here at the superspeedway:  Don’t be afraid to leave ANY amount of salary on the table with your lineups.

Last Race Notables: Kyle Busch won.  Blaney led 47 laps, Wallace led 35 laps, Truex led 19 laps, Elliott led 18 laps, Harvick, Almirola, Burton led 11 laps.  21 different lap leaders.  Start/Finish:  17/1 Busch, 20/5 Keselowski, 24/6 Jones, 22/9 Suarez, 28/10 Gilliland, 38/11 Yeley, 29/12 Elliott, 27/13 Bowman, 32/15 Ty Dillon, 33/15 Stenhouse, 37/18 McLeod.

Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions.  Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, which makes place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable.  Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.

Process:

Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar.  We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers.  Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run.  I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off.  The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.

I am trying to narrow things down for you.  Too much information can just be confusing.  If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.

Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:

Point Scoring:

Drivers will accumulate points as follows:

DraftKings Scoring:

• Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
• Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
• Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
• Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)

FanDuel Scoring:

• 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
• Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
• Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
• Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
• Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)

Track Stats:

Picks (DK pricing shown)

Top Tier:

• Brad Keselowski ($10,500) – Starting 5th.
• Ryan Blaney ($10,200) – Starting 10th.
• Denny Hamlin ($9,800) – Starting 12th.

Mid Tier:

• Chase Elliott ($9,300) – Starting 23rd.
• Bubba Wallace ($9,200) – Starting 9th.
• Ricky Stenhouse ($8,500) – Starting 35th.
• Eric Jones ($7,800) – Starting 26th.

Sleepers:

A ton of guys down here.  Low end teams that will cruise around the back and miss the “BIG ONE” and get a nice respectable finishing position. Some good options listed below, but all the cheap guys starting in back are viable.  Good strategy.  Pick two guys you think can win, then the rest have low, low end starting in the back.

• Corey LaJoie ($6,200) – Starting 36th.
• AJ Allmendinger ($6,600) – Starting 31st.
• Michael McDowell ($7,100) – Starting 18th.
• Ty Dillon ($5,000) – Starting 33rd.

For More GOAT Bets: See Today’s Plays

As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or @GOAT in Discord.