Getting Started with MVP

Getting Started With MVP

What is MVP?

MVP stands for “Mayhem Value Picks” and is a machine-based sportsbetting system that uses historical data to identify positive expected value sports picks. Point spreads, moneylines, and game totals (“over/unders”) are the three major markets that MVP focuses on. Each sporting event with these available markets and betting odds will be assigned a value score by MVP. Since each side has three scores, each contest has a total of six value scores, ranked on a five-star scale, with five stars being an outstanding value. As a general rule of thumb, 3.5 stars or higher is considered a playable bet.

MVP is Not for All Sports and Markets

MVP systems don’t currently include golf, motorsports, or combat sports. Player props have weaker historical correlations, and thus, less value, than the point spreads, totals (over/unders), and moneyline markets mentioned above. That being said, player props are very popular now, especially with the emergence of “Same Game Parlays,” and MVP does provide premium subscribers with access to the analysis and ratings for a variety of prop markets.

Trends

Trends are different viewpoints of a particular pick in the context of one individual team or player. The difference between a Pick or Trend is subtle, but important to distinguish. Trends are built into the MVP system to analyze the relative value of a particular pick by analyzing the pick from thousands of different viewpoints. The MVP systems aggregates these trends and produces a single numeric score value for each side’s moneyline, over/under, and point spread betting market. A few examples of trends are:

As an Underdog.
Against a Team with a Winning Record in its Last 10 Games.
On the Same Day of the Week.
Against a Team with a Losing Record.
After a Point Spread Win as a Favorite.

Trend Value Score

As we touched on above, the Trend Value Score, or just Value Score for short, is the heart of MVP. It is the basis for how we rate and view bets. The score is a historical profit index that helps us rank upcoming and live picks by their past profitability.

The basis of our value score is the “Net” or profit/margin which is the amount you would earn if you risked one unit on the pick. Looking back historically at each pick’s trends you will find that certain trends are more profitable over time and those profitable trends you want to highlight on related picks to calculate the value score. So, once the trends are calculated for no more than the 50 past games, we pick the row for that trend with the maximum Net, which is what you see here:

This maximum Net is then summed up across all the trends and divided by 1000 to make the score a small percentage value, like 12% or 25%, as examples.

Calculation example:

Let’s look at the LA Lakers +6. See the three example trends below:

After Point Spread Loss, Net = 15.2 in last 23 games
Against Winning teams, Net = 22.8 in last 39 games
As Home Team, Net = 19.2 in last 41 games

Total Net = 57.2

Value Score = 57.2 / 1000 = +5.7%

Value Picks

When a particular set of trends result in a high-value score, we label this as a Value Pick. The value indicates that the pick is historically profitable and should result in a profitable long-term outcome for the person willing to apply risk by placing a real-life wager in such situations. The performance of a trend is analyzed by risking ONE UNIT on each value pick historically and tracking the results. MVP systems can be tracked by sport and market across the last seven days, last 30 days, and all-time. Live and pregame picks are tracked separately.

Pick Systems

During the pick-making process, picks that are made on our platform are assigned to Pick Systems. Users can create their own Pick Systems that represent a single sport or that span across all of one’s actual bets, for example. You are free to name your systems however you please, and premium members can create an unlimited number of pick systems for their different strategies. The lines and wager amounts can be edited as well, for full transparency and accurate bookkeeping. Here are some Pick System examples:

Live Spread Value

All picks have positive or negative value, but that value is usually very small pre-game. The bookmakers setting the lines aim for a 50/50 outcome on each game’s point spread (pre-game). However, live markets operate differently, as in-game lines are rapidly changing as the game progresses. The live point spread betting markets are updating constantly with every point scored during the game or match. Whenever a game unfolds in such a way that one team or pick is in a position of high value, based on pre-game matchup data and the closing line, we label this as a Live Spread Value play. Notifications will be sent to all subscribers specifying the current game information, the live line, the line at the very start of the contest, and the net value of the play based on the difference in the game’s starting line and the live line. In addition, the live value pick will be automatically added to our machine systems that follow these high-value live picks. Live Spread Values are the bread-and-butter of MVP.

Keys to Success

Turn on email notifications for pregame plays that the system likes.
Dig into the MATCHUPS and study the trends before making a wager.
Live value plays historically have a higher win rate than pregame picks, so to begin with, focus only on live value plays recommended by the system and our experts in Discord.