Fantasy Football QB Rankings -By Benny Ricciardi
The quarterback position is one that is notoriously volatile from year-to-year. Injuries, schedule difficulty, and regression seem to make it tough at this position from one season to the next. We have historically seen more than half of the top twelve quarterbacks from the previous season fail to repeat that feat in the next. This has been less true in recent years, but it is a trend that stretches back for decades. Here are some of the best guys to draft in fantasy football for 2023.
Tier1 QB Rankings: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen
You SHOULD Draft Josh Allen in Fantasy Football
We can sit here and argue whether you should draft Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, or Josh Allen first in fantasy football this year. They are the only three elite options I have in my first tier rankings at the QB position. Mahomes and Hurts tend to go off the board first. Mahomes rarely gets past the second round. Hurts sometimes is drafted before Mahomes and the rest of the time not long after. Allen seems to be the one who drops into round three and sometimes even the start of round four. The difference in range of outcomes between the top three quarterbacks is smaller than the difference in range of outcomes between the running backs and wide receivers available in round two vs. round three or four. Guys like Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are routinely going in the second round. Same for running backs like Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, and Tony Pollard. Being able to draft one of those options and still having the chance to pair them with a tier one quarterback like Josh Allen is a more enticing build than having to drop down to a tier three wide receiver or running back option to pair with Hurts or Mahomes in rounds three and four.
Tier 1A QB Rankings: Lamar Jackson
I am very high on Lamar Jackson this year. He is well clear of everyone behind him and a step behind those in the tier 1 rankings. The change in offensive philosophy coupled with the improved weapons should translate into more passing work for him. How much of a hit that is to his rushing totals remains to be seen. I think we can see a huge jump in passing numbers that can more than make up for a slight regression in the rushing stats. His ceiling is QB1 overall this year and the floor is safer than we have seen in years past.
Tier 2 QB Rankings: Justin Fields, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence
You SHOULD Draft Justin Herbert in Fantasy Football
Justin Fields is a guy going at the top of his range. The addition of DJ Moore was a great trade for the Bears, but I am not sure it makes Fields that much better through the air. Fields is an absolute freak athlete who was able to rip off some massive runs last year. He would have to not only exceed that magical season with his feet, but also take a major step forward to justify being drafted at the end of round four or start of round five.
Justin Herbert on the other hand is being undervalued. Herbert’s pass catching group was in shambles last season with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both missing time. The offense played slower than they are expected to this year and Herbert played through an injury himself. The Chargers are healthy at WR, added another weapon in rookie Quentin Johnson, and have a new faster paced offensive philosophy. All of that points to positive regression for Herbert. Running quarterbacks are the cheat code and Herbert is not going to match any of those guys with his legs, but for a guy available in round five or six of most drafts, you are getting a guy who will have a lot of big games and a pretty high weekly floor. Joe Burrow had been going before Herbert earlier in August. He and Fields were the two guys that flip flopped at the end of round four. Herbert has leaped up a bit recently due to Burrow’s injury scare. I like both guys in the fifth round, but prefer Herbert a tad more even if they are both on the board.
Tier 3 QB Rankings: Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa
You SHOULD draft Tua Tagovailoa in Fantasy Football
I was not overly impressed with what I saw from Deshaun Watson at the end of last season and Dak Prescott is playing for a coach who wants to win games by running the football and playing defense. Tua has a pair of stud wide receiving options that are both going off the board before the end of the second round. Both guys are also able to take any catch and turn it into a huge game. Tua had some scary head injuries that limited him a bit in 2023, but in the thirteen games he did play he averaged just shy of 275 yards and two touchdowns per contest. The Dolphins offense is explosive enough where Tua will have a handful of 300 yard passing games with multiple touchdowns during the season. He is going in round eight of many drafts and is a guy who has even fallen into the ninth or tenth of some twelve team drafts. I rank hi higher than Dak and just below Watson. Watson is going a full round or two ahead of Tua and the difference between them should not be that wide.
Tier 4 QB Rankings: Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith
You SHOULD draft Aaron Rodgers in fantasy football
I am not buying the hype on Anthony Richardson. He is a poor man’s Justin Fields on an offense that probably leans heavy on the run and plays at a very slow pace. I would rather have Daniel Jones two rounds later. I like Kirk Cousins, but he is going a full round earlier than Rodgers is. Maybe Geno Smith improves again with some added weapons, but Seattle is still a team that likes to run the ball too. Rodgers could start the season without the service of his clear #1 back as Breece Hall is coming off a season ending injury and is still not up to playing speed yet. Rodgers was being drafted earlier than round nine or ten in 12 team drafts last year and is arguably in a better situation this season. I am a die hard New York Jets fan, but those who know me know I am also harder on my favorite team than most. As much as I love Hall and Garrett Wilson, I have been one of the few who is pounding the table saying they are being overdrafted at ADP. I am not saying the same about Rodgers, who is at a very reasonable ADP. Do I think he can be a top three fantasy QB at this stage of his career? Probably not, but he should be going at least a round earlier than he has been at a ADP in the 120-130 range.
Tier 5 QB Rankings: Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray
You SHOULD draft Russell Wilson in fantasy football
Russell Wilson is another QB that was drafted higher in 2022 and it was a disaster. No excuses for him, but there was a glimmer of hope as he did play better late in the season. He has a new coach, a new system, and a new weapon in Marvin Mims. All of those things have to be positive for him. Last year was a low end expectation, which has made people very gun shy in pulling the trigger on draft day. I am not expecting him to bounce back to a top 5 QB finish in 2023, but at QB18 there is more upside than downside at the price. Wilson is going in the twelfth round of many drafts and I have him projected to be in the top 12 this year. He’s a great second quarterback that does not cost a ton of draft capital and if you wait on the position in your drafts he is a viable guy that could end up giving you top 12 production at a deep discount.
Tier 6 QB rankings: Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Kenny Pickett, Bryce Young, Sam Howell, C.J. Stroud, Jimmy Garroppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, Baker Mayfield
You SHOULD draft Kenny Pickett in fantasy football
Let me start by saying if your #1 QB is on this list, your league mates thank you in advance for your donation. This list should be strictly guys who are backups, or streaming options in most competitive fantasy football leagues. The guy I have the ost faith in as a late round back up option is Kenny Pickett. Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are both going before ADP 75. PAt Freirmuth is in that middle tier of tight end options and Najee Harris is a plodder. The division is stacked, which should lead to a lot of come from behind throw heavy second halves. With the talent at his pass catching positions, Pickett should be able to throw up a few useful fantasy performances in 2023.
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