Conmann’s 9/9/23 UFC 293 Betting Blueprint

Conmann's DraftKings UFC Betting/DFS Plays

Today’s UFC 293 event is now a 12-fight card starting at 6:30PM with the early prelims on ESPN+ followed by the featured prelims at 8:00 on ESPN News, and then the main card on PPV at 10:00. We have six total bets! Enjoy the UFC 293 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

Betting Terms Key:

  • ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
  • Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
  • Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”

Kevin Jousset vs. Kiefer Crosbie

Notes:
  • Jousset has a record of 8-2 with 4 wins by KO. “Air” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
  • Crosbie is 10-3 with 7 wins by finish. “Big Daddy” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
  • Both fighters are making their UFC debut.
Analysis:

The opening bout features two fighters making their UFC debuts in Kevin Jousset vs. Kiefer Crosbie. Jousset is the bigger fighter and will have a three-inch height and a five-inch reach advantage over Crosbie and will look to use his hometown crowd behind him to gain momentum and kick off the card in style. His team, “City Kickboxing,” has five fighters on the card, including main event champion Israel Adesanya. Crosbie is a 10-3 Irish prospect fighting out of SBG Ireland and is a brawler who wings wild punches without much defense, looking for the finish. Jousset should win here, but I have no conviction to put my money on either fighter here and I will pass. No Bet.

Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda

Notes:
  • Young is 13-7 with 10 wins by finish. “Sugar” was KO in 1 of his 7 losses.
  • Miranda is 16-6 with all 16 wins by finish, including 15 by submission. “Fly” was KO in 2 of his 6 losses.
Analysis:

Shane Young missed weight by four pounds and looked terrible on the scales, but perhaps that was a tactic with his UFC career on the line. Young, on a three-fight losing streak, will be facing off against a strong grappler in Gabriel Miranda. Young is a high-volume striker with poor takedown defense and is now facing a grappler with 15 submission victories. Miranda dropped his UFC debut vs. a very good Benoit St. Denis, who we just bet on and won this past week. “Fly” will have a three-inch height advantage and will look to get this fight to the ground by all means, including trips, flops, and pulling guard. I think this fight plays out with either Miranda getting the takedown and sub or Young bludgeoning Miranda on the feet, as his striking does not look UFC-caliber. When Miranda wins, he wins by submission early and has 11 first round submission wins, and his other win came in round 2. I am going to attack this fight by betting on the underdog with one unit of total risk and play it as follows: I bet Miranda to win via submission in round 1 +650, risking 0.5 to win 3.25 units and Miranda to win by submission in round 2 +800, risking 0.5 to win 4 units. If Miranda pulls it off, we either win 2.75 or 3.5 units.

Mike Mathetha vs. Charlie Radtke

Notes:
  • Mathetha is 3-2 with 2 wins by finish. “Blood Diamond” was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.  
  • Radtke is 7-3 with 5 wins by finish. “Chuck Buffalo” was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:

“BLOOD DIAMOND” returns! Mike Mathetha, or better known as “Blood Diamond,” gets his most winnable fight in his third UFC matchup at home vs. the debuting American, “Chuck Buffalo”! What a great battle of nicknames! “Chuck Buffalo,” or Charlie Radtke, is 33 years old and 7-3 and now being brought in from Illinois to fly around the world to fight Mathetha. It looks like the UFC tried to give Mathetha every opportunity to win a fight and this is the end of the line for the teammate and friend of Israel Adesanya, who needs a win to stay in the UFC. Radtke is decent, but the key is that he is a striker, like Mathetha, and we should see a standup fight with neither fighter looking to grapple, which gives “Blood Diamond” his best path to victory. I am going to side with the underdog Mathetha, who has the UFC experience, along with the home crowd and a two-inch height and four-inch reach advantage to pull off the upset at +255. I bet “Blood Diamond” +255, risking 1 to win 2.55 units.

Nasrat Haqparast vs. Landon Quinones

Notes:
  • Haqparast is 14-5 with 9 wins by KO. Nasrat was stopped in 2 of his 5 losses.
  • Quinones is 7-1-1 with 6 wins by finish. “The Lone Wolf” is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:

Nasrat Haqparast is a 6-4, 10-fight UFC veteran and gets a debuting fighter here in a favorable matchup vs. Landon Quinones, who does not have a singular attribute that I believe can outclass Haqparast. Nasrat is a solid striker who utilizes good movement and footwork to implement his high-volume striking offense and has good takedown defense to keep the fight standing. Quinones is also a striker, and as mentioned, nothing jumps off the page to make me believe that he can walk into his UFC debut and defeat the veteran at his own game. I think Haqparast will use his inch of height and two-inch reach advantage to put a pace on the kid and win dominantly. I bet Haqparast and used him as a parlay piece.

Jamie Mullarkey vs. John Makdessi

Notes:
  • Mullarkey is 16-6 with 13 wins by finish, including 10 by KO. Jamie was KO in 4 of his 6 losses. 
  • Makdessi is 18-8 with 9 wins by KO. “The Bull” was stopped in 3 of his 8 losses.
Analysis:

This should be a fun striking affair between two good strikers for as long as Mullarkey, who is the better wrestler of the two, allows it to stay upright. Mullarkey lost his last time out via KO, snapping a two-fight winning streak, so he might play it safe here and look for the easiest path to victory, which will be taking the fight to the floor. Makdessi is now 38 years old and has lost two of his last three fights. “The Bull” is very tough and has nine knockout victories and has only been stopped in three of his eight losses. I favor Mullarkey to use his volume and wrestling to get the win here, but Makdessi is live for a KO, as Mullarkey is a little sloppy at times and has also shown some durability issues. I lean Mullarkey, but pass on a bet. No Bet.

Jack Jenkins vs. Jose Mariscal

Notes:
  • Jenkins is 12-2 with 8 wins by finish. “Phar” was submitted in both losses.
  • Mariscal Is 14-6 with 9 wins by finish. “Chepe” was KO in 3 of his 6 losses.

Analysis:

This will be a good scrap between two tough fighters who are a combined 3-0 in the UFC. Jose Mariscal won his UFC debut by enduring vs. the previously undefeated Trevor Peek, out striking him and securing four takedowns. This fight is a step up in competition for both fighters and will determine if Jenkins is the prospect that everyone believes that he is, or if “Chepe” is the real deal after taking the long road to the UFC. Jenkins has good cardio and boxing and utilizes leg kicks, mixing up his punches and kicks well. Mariscal also has good cardio and fights at a high pace, with a solid grappling game to complement his well-rounded skillset. Jenkins had a scare in his last fight, winning a split decision in a fight that many though his opponent Jamall Emmers won. This should be a fun scrap and I would not be surprised to see Mariscal pull it out as a +175 underdog and derail the second UFC prospect in as many fights. I am going to pass on a bet here and enjoy what I determine to be a high variance, fun fight. No Bet.

Carlos Ulberg vs. Da Woon Jung

Notes:
  • Ulberg is 8-1 with 6 wins by KO. “Black Jag” was KO in his only loss.
  • Jung is 15-4-1 with 13 wins by finish. “Sseda” was stopped in 2 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:

Carlos Ulberg is on a four-fight winning streak, with three first round knockouts, after dropping his UFC debut. Ulberg will be taking on seven-fight UFC veteran, Da Woon Jung. Jung is 4-2-1 in his UFC fights and is on a two-fight losing streak. Ulberg is a very powerful striker with a kickboxing background and is a high-volume southpaw striker with powerful leg kicks. Jung is also a striker with power, as evidenced by 11 of 15 wins by KO, but fights with low volume and has shown durability issues as of late. I like Ulberg here to be better in all aspects of striking and to use his volume and power to overwhelm Jung and most likely get the knockout. Without the threat of wrestling, I think Ulberg cruises here. I bet Ulberg and used him as a parlay piece.

Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj

Notes:
  • Pedro is 9-4 with all 9 wins by finish. Tyson was stopped in 2 of his 4 losses.
  • Turkalj is 8-2 with 7 wins by finish. “The Pleasure Man” was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:

Tyson Pedro and Anton Turkalj are both kill-or-be-killed fighters, with 19 of their combined 23 fights ending by finish. Turkalj is 0-2 in the UFC and searching for his first win and Pedro is coming off a loss to Modestas Bukauskas, in which he did not look good in. Pedro gets a chance for redemption here in friendly territory vs. an opponent who has a similar skillset. Both fighters are explosive in their striking and have good grappling. Pedro has good leg kicks, but has also shown poor cardio in past fights. Turkalj is a little sloppy with his defensive striking, but I expect this fight to hit the ground at some point, and “The Pleasure Man” has the cardio edge. I do not anticipate this fight going the distance, with two good finishers here, and lean the fight to end early, but I have a funny feeling about this fight and will pass. No Bet.

Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane

Notes:
  • Tafa is 6-3 with all 6 wins by KO. “Bad Man” was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
  • Lane is 12-3 with all 12 wins by finish, including 11 by KO. Austen was KO in all 3 losses.
Analysis:

A rematch from an earlier matchup in June, which resulted in a no contest when Tafa was poked in the eye in the first round. Just like I felt the first time, I believe again that this fight is sure to end in VIOLENCE!  Austen Lane has a 100% finish rate in his 12-3 MMA career, which includes being KO in the first round in all three of his losses. Tafa is a big, power puncher, with all six of his wins coming by KO in the first or second round. Lane tends to enter exchanges with his chin up in the air, which is a recipe for disaster in this matchup vs. Tafa. I think Tafa will build on his two-fight winning streak and get Lane out of there early. I bet Tafa to win by KO -150, risking 4.5 to win 3 units.

Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos

Notes:
  • Kape is 18-6 with 16 wins by finish. “Starboy” was submitted in 2 of his 6 losses. 
  • dos Santos is 7-0 with 5 wins by finish. “Lipe Detona” is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:

Manel Kape will now be facing a 7-0, undefeated fighter in Felipe dos Santos, who will be making his UFC debut after replacing Kai Kara-France on about three weeks’ notice. Kape is 3-2 in his five UFC fights and on a three-fight winning streak after dropping his first two UFC fights. dos Santos will have a two-inch height and reach advantage and is a very aggressive striker from the Chute Box team and has all the traits of their stable of fighters, including good kicks and a solid grappling game. Kape is a good counter striker, and the aggression of dos Santos could work against him here. Even more troubling for him is his propensity to get hit, as he is a little sloppy with his aggression. I think Kape is levels above the 22-year-old newcomer and will use his speed, power, and athleticism in the striking department, along with his plus grappling, to get the finish. I like Kape to win inside the distance. At -170 for Kape to win ITD, it makes more sense to pay a little more juice and bet fight ITD -250 and also have a path with the newcomer just in case. I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it as a parlay piece.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov

Notes:
  • Tuivasa is 14-5 with 13 wins by KO. “Bam Bam” was stopped in 4 of his 5 losses.
  • Volkov is 36-10 with 27 wins by finish, including 24 by KO. “Drago” was stopped in 5 of his 10 losses.
Analysis:

This will be a fun, and most likely, VIOLENT heavyweight fight between two finishers who have been headed in different directions recently. Tai Tuivasa is on a two-fight losing streak and Volkov a two-fight winning streak, with all four fights ending by KO, thrice in round 1. Volkov is huge for the division and will have a five-inch height and reach advantage. Tuivasa is a brawler and will look to close the distance in order to land a huge overhand right and is not afraid to eat a few punches in order to do so. Volkov uses his length very well and peppers the body of his opponents with his kicks and has a good clinch game as well. Both fighters struggle to defend takedowns and rarely wrestle, with Tuivasa never even attempting a takedown in his 13-fight UFC career. This fight is going to be violent, and I am shocked at the fight ITD line at -330, which I have closer to -800. Huge discrepancy, and you know what we do to the number when I feel it is wrong. We smash! I bet fight ITD and used it in a parlay.

Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland

Notes:
  • Adesanya is 24-2 with 16 wins by KO. “The Last Stylebender” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
  • Strickland is 27-5 with 15 wins by finish. “Tarzan” was KO in 2 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:

The Main Event! “The Last Stylebender,” 24-2 Champion Israel Adesanya faces American AF fighter Sean Strickland in front of his raucous home crowd to cap off the night. Both fighters are great strikers, with Strickland offering a smothering, high-volume boxing style, and Adesanya a more diversified kickboxing approach. Izzy is a low-volume striker and tends to start slow. Strickland is very technical and will look to close the distance, limiting the kicks of Adesanya. Strickland should look to wrestle and make this a dirty MMA fight, as opposed to a glorified striking affair, which will favor Adesanya. Strickland is tough and gritty, but Adesanya is the cleaner, more technical overall striker. My heart is with “Tarzan” here, and at a juicy underdog price of +490, it is either dog or pass for me here. As of now, I am passing, but if I am up units heading into the last fight of the night, I might throw a half unit on Strickland for the rooting interest, but as of now, No Bet. 

UFC 293 – Official Bets:

  • 7:00 Miranda submission in round 1 +650 (0.5 to win 3.25 units)
  • 7:00: Miranda submission in round 2 +800 (0.5 to win 4 units)
  • 7:30: Mathetha +255 (1 to win 2.55 units)
  • 8:00: Haqparast/Ulberg parlay -159 (5 to win 3.15 units)
  • 10:30: Tafa via KO -150 (4.5 to win 3 units)
  • 11:00: Kape/dos Santos fight ITD & Tuivasa/Volkov fight ITD parlay -132 (5 to win 3.84 units)

Continue Reading: Conmann’s UFC 293 DraftKings Plays

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