Conmann’s 9/2/23 UFC Paris Betting Blueprint

Conmann's DraftKings UFC Betting/DFS Plays

Saturday’s UFC Paris event is now an 11-fight card starting at 12:30PM airing in its entirety on ESPN+.  We have three total bets! Enjoy the UFC Paris – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

Betting Terms Key:

  • ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
  • Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
  • Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”

Zarah Fairn dos Santos vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (women’s)

Notes:
  • dos Santos has a record of 6-5 with 4 wins by KO. “Infinite” was stopped in 2 of her 5 losses.
  • Cavalcanti is 5-1 with 3 wins by KO. Jaqueline is making her UFC debut.
Analysis:

This is a real tricky card, and with only 11 fights and multiple debuting fighters, we are going to have to be selective with our spots and this fight is not one of them. The opening fight is a women’s bout featuring a 36-year-old, 0-3 UFC fighter, vs. a 5-1 career fighter who is making her UFC debut. dos Santos is huge for the division and has some power, but struggles in the grappling department. Cavalcanti is a former LFA Champion and is also a striker with good power and below average grappling. I anticipate a standup striking affair for the most part, with both fighters historically having bad cardio. The debuting Cavalcanti is a huge -385 favorite and the +315 on dos Santos is tempting, but I cannot trust either fighter at these odds. Pass, No Bet.

Farid Basharat vs. Kleydson Rodrigues

Notes:
  • Basharat is 10-0 with 6 wins by finish. 
  • Rodrigues is 8-2 with 6 wins by finish.
Analysis:

Farid Basharat is an undefeated 10-0 fighter with good striking and utilizes his speed and powerful leg kicks to mix up his attacks on the feet and he is also a good grappler. Kleydson Rodrigues is 1-1 in his two UFC fights but has struggled with making weight and had a previously scheduled fight cancelled due to his 3-pound weight miss. When Kleydson does make it to the cage he is a powerful striker who fights at a high pace and like Basharat, he is also a good grappler. Basharat will have a 3-inch height & 4-inch reach advantage in this matchup and is the more trustworthy fighter who I believe to also be the more skilled fighter. I like Basharat here to outpace Rodriguez and take over as the fight goes long. I bet Basharat and used him as a parlay piece.

Nora Cornolle vs. Joselyne Edwards (women’s)

Notes:
  • Cornolle is 6-1 with 5 wins by KO.  
  • Edwards is 13-4 with 8 wins by finish. “La Pantera” was submitted in 1 of her 4 losses.
  • Cornolle is making her UFC debut.
Analysis:

Another tough to call women’s MMA fight with a debuting fighter vs. a UFC veteran. Nora Cornolle will make her UFC debut in front of her hometown crowd and is 6-1 with all six wins by finish. Nora is an aggressive striker with power, but has fought very low-level opposition on the regional scene. Edwards is on a three-fight UFC winning streak and will have an inch of height and a three-inch reach advantage. “La Pantera” is a one-dimensional striker with a good kicking attack, but lacks power and has subpar takedown defense. This fight is an easy pass for me lined at a coin flip price of -120 Edwards. Pass, No Bet.

Ange Loosa vs. Rhys McKee

Notes:
  • Loosa is 9-3 with 6 wins by finish. 
  • McKee is 13-4-1 with all 13 wins by finish. “Skeletor” was KO in 2 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:

Rhys McKee is making his return to the UFC after winning three straight fights by finish since he was released after an 0-2 UFC stint. Ange Loosa is 1-1 in his two UFC fights and is a powerful striker who fights at a high pace. “The Last Ninja” has shown the ability to wrestle and secured two takedowns in his UFC victory to go along with 129 significant strikes. McKee is a finisher, with all 13 of his wins inside the distance, including 10 by knockout, and he will have a four-inch height and reach advantage and will look to use his length to keep the fight standing. “Skeletor” has subpar takedown defense and an average at best grappling game. This will be an all-action fight with both fighters looking for the kill. I expect this fight to end inside the distance and I favor Loosa to get it done with his wrestling being the difference maker, but not enough to pull the trigger for a bet vs. the massive McKee. Pass, No Bet. 

Taylor Lapilus vs. Caolan Loughran

Notes:
  • Lapilus is 18-3 with 10 wins by finish. “Double Impact” is making his UFC debut. 
  • Loughran is 8-0 with 7 wins by finish. “The Don” is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:

Taylor Lapilus returns to the UFC after previously going 3-1 back in 2016 and then surprisingly getting cut, and he will face a late-notice fighter making his UFC debut in undefeated Irish prospect, Caolan “The Don” Loughran. “The Don” is 8-0 with seven wins by finish and is a well-rounded fighter with power in his striking game and a good grappling game to compliment it. Lapilus is a kickboxer and has good elbows and knees from the clinch. “Double Impact” will look the keep this fight on the feet and I expect Loughran to try to wrestle, which will be his best path to victory. However, I am not confident in either fighter to overwhelmingly employ his strategy. I will sit this one out. Pass, No Bet.

Morgan Charriere vs. Manolo Zecchini

Notes:
  • Charriere is 18-9-1 with 13 wins by finish, including 10 wins by KO. “The Last Pirate” was submitted in 1 of his 9 losses.
  • Zecchini Is 11-3 with 9 wins by finish. “Angelo Veneziano” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
  • Both fighters are making their UFC debut.

Analysis:

Another fight with debuting fighters, and in this case, both fighters. Morgan Charriere is the A-side, an exciting hometown fighter with 13 of his 18 wins by finish, facing Manolo Zecchini, a low-level regional fighter from Italy. Charriere has powerful striking, including heavy leg kicks and a good jab. Zecchini has power, with eight knockouts in his 11 wins, but has shown to tire later in fights. I like the athleticism and explosiveness of Charriere to shine through and I expect him to get the finish. I bet Charriere and used him as a parlay piece.

William Gomis vs. Yanis Ghemmouri

Notes:
  • Gomis is 12-2 with 7 wins by finish. “The Jaguar” was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
  • Ghemmouri is 12-1 with 7 wins by finish. “The Desert Warrior” was submitted in his only loss.
  • Ghemmouri is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:

William Gomis is 2-0 in the UFC, utilizing a VERY low output striking game, only landing 32 and 27 significant strikes in his two decision wins. “Jaguar” will have a three-inch height and a four-inch reach advantage vs. Yanis Ghemmouri, who is making his UFC debut with a 12-1 record, with seven wins by finish. “The Desert Warrior” is a kickboxer with power and has shown that he can grapple and will have the grappling edge in this matchup. This is another tough fight to gauge, and at a line of -200 for Gomis, I am not willing to put my money behind either fighter. Pass, No Bet.

Volkan Oezdemir vs. Bogdan Guskov

Notes:
  • Oezdemir is 18-7 with 13 wins inside the distance, including 12 by KO. “No Time” was stopped in 4 of his 7 losses.
  • Guskov is 14-2 with all 14 wins by finish. Bogdan was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
  • Guskov is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:

Volkan Oezdemir is a 6-6, 12-fight UFC veteran, but has lost to very good fighters, including former UFC Champions Daniel Cormier and Jiri Prochazka. Bogdan Guskov is making his UFC debut and is 14-2 with a 100% finishing rate, with all but one of his wins ending in the first two rounds. Guskov is a powerful striker who is untested in the grappling department and seems like a KO-or-bust option here. Oezdemir has looked a step slower as of late, but has beaten everyone in front of him in the UFC, except the two former Champions mentioned, and his other losses include three title challengers, clearly giving “No Time” the vast experience edge. I think this fight is going to end early, as either Guskov proves to be the real deal and gets a fading Oezdemir out of there, or the savvy veteran exposes the padded record of Guskov. My money is on Oezdemir exposing Guskov and getting the win. Either way, I see VIOLENCE! I bet Oezdemir to win and used him as a parlay piece.

Benoit St. Denis vs. Thiago Moises

Notes:
  • St. Denis is 11-1 with all 11 wins by finish. 
  • Moises is 17-6 with 11 wins by finish. Thiago was stopped in 2 of his 6 losses.
Analysis:

Benoit St. Denis is as tough as they come, a former French Special Forces Commando and an 11-1 fighter with a 100% finishing rate, who showed that he can endure a beating, as evidenced in his first UFC fight (and only career loss) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. “God of War” has since won three fights, all by finish. Thiago Moises is also a very tough fighter who has fought very good fighters in the division, including current Champion, Islam Makhachev. Moises is a black belt in BJJ and has low-volume striking with decent power. St. Denis is an explosive grappler, averaging four takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon and has serviceable striking. I like St. Denis in this spot to be the more aggressive fighter with the wrestling edge, fighting in front of his home crowd, to overwhelm Moises and get the win. I bet St. Denis and used him as a parlay piece.

Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas

Notes:
  • Fiorot is 10-1 with 6 wins by KO. 
  • Namajunas is 11-5 with 7 wins by finish. “Thug” was stopped in 2 of her 5 losses.
Analysis:

Rose Namajunas is returning after a 1.5-year layoff and now up a weight class at 125 pounds. Manot “The Beast” Fiorot is 5-0 in the UFC with two knockouts and will have a two-inch height advantage in this matchup. “Thug Rose” has climbed the hill twice to defy all odds and become Champion, however, I believe that she is brought in here in this spot to put Fiorot over for the title shot. Namajunas is a good technical striker with power and is a capable grappler. Fiorot is also very well-rounded and fights at a high pace with a high-volume attack and can wrestle, averaging almost two takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. Rose has been talking about retirement, which is never a good sign heading into a fight. I like Fiorot in this spot to use her volume and power advantage to be a step ahead throughout. I bet Fiorot and used her as a parlay piece.

Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak

Notes:
  • Gane is 11-2 with 8 wins by finish. “Bon Gamin” was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
  • Spivak is 16-3 with 14 wins by finish. “The Polar Bear” was KO in 2 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:

The Main Event! We last saw Ciryl Gane lose via one way traffic to the GOAT “Jonny Bones” via first round guillotine choke and Sergey Spivak choke out Derrick Lewis, also in the first round. This fight is a striker vs. grappler matchup where Gane will look to use his one-inch height and three-inch reach advantage to keep Spivak on the outside at range and keep the fight on the feet. Spivac, “The Polar Bear,” is on a three-fight winning streak with all three wins by finish and has looked great. This fight card was made for Gane in the Main Event at home in Paris, France, and I would be surprised if Spivak was to come in here and manhandle him, but it sure is possible with the gigantic grappling edge that he will have. This is another fight that I do not think will see the judges’ scorecards and either Spivak will get the submission or Gane the KO. I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it as a parlay piece.

UFC Paris – Official Bets:

  • 1:00: Basharat/Charriere parlay -159 (4.77 to win 3 units)
  • 4:00: Oezdemir & Gane/Spivak fight ITD parlay -115 (3.45 to win 3 units)
  • 4:30: St. Denis/Fiorot parlay +141 (3 to win 4.23 units)

Continue Reading: Conmann’s Daily UFC DraftKings Plays

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