Conmann’s 8/19/23 UFC 292 Betting Blueprint

August 19, 2023
3:02 pm

Today’s UFC 292 event is a 12-fight card starting at 6:30PM with the early prelims airing on ESPN+ followed by the featured prelims at 8:00 on ESPN, and then the Main Card on PPV at 10:00. We have four bets, including three five-unit Bombs! Enjoy the UFC 292 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

Betting Terms Key:

ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”

Maryna Moroz vs. Karine Silva (women’s)
Notes:

Moroz has a record of 11-4 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 by submission.
Silva is 16-4 with all 16 wins by finish. “Killer” was stopped in 3 of her 4 losses.

Analysis:
Karine Silva is on a seven-fight winning streak, with all seven fights ending by finish, including 2-0 in the UFC, with both fights ending by first round submission. Maryna Moroz is 3-3 in her six UFC fights and is very durable, having never been finished in her 15-fight career. Silva is a very good grappler and also has power in her punches, which she uses to close distance, looking to get the fight to the ground. Moroz has good cardio and can hang in the striking and grappling department and is a well-rounded fighter. I think this fight plays out with Silva live for an early finish and slowing down if the fight goes long. Moroz will have the edge in the later rounds if it gets there. Tough fight to call. Pass, No Bet.

Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva (women’s)
Notes:

Lee has a record of 13-7 with 8 wins by finish.
Silva is 15-5-1 with 12 wins by finish. Natalia was stopped in 3 of her 5 losses.

Analysis:
Much like the first fight on the card, we have another women’s MMA bout with similar circumstance. Natalia Silva is on a nine-fight winning streak with eight finishes and is 3-0 in the UFC. Andrea “KGB” Lee is a 10-fight UFC veteran with a 5-5 record. Silva is a very good striker and grappler who can finish you with her strikes and with her Jiu Jitsu. Lee is similar in the fact that she has a well-rounded skillset with good kickboxing, and the ability to wrestle, averaging over two takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. Lee will have the size advantage with a two-inch height and a four-inch reach advantage. Silva is eight years younger, and I like her explosiveness and the fact that she is the ascending fighter facing the middling, veteran fighter with a .500 record. I think Silva will be a step ahead throughout. I bet Silva and used her as a parlay piece.

Andre Petroski vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Notes:

Petroski is 9-1 with 8 wins by finish. Andre was KO in his only loss.
Meerschaert is 35-16 with 33 wins by finish, including 27 by submission. “GM3” was stopped in 12 of his 16 losses.

Analysis:
VIOLENCE! There shall be VIOLENCE!!! These two fighters have combined for 55 of their 60 fights ending inside the distance! Andre Petroski is 9-1 with eight wins by finish and he was KO in his only loss. Gerald Meerschaert has 33 of his 35 wins by finish and he was stopped in 12 of his 16 losses! Petroski is a heavy-handed, former college wrestler, who averages over five takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. Meerschaert is a VERY dangerous submission artist, with 27 of his 35 wins by submission. In the striking department, “GM3” utilizes powerful kicks to the body, and Petroski is a wild, looping, power puncher. Petroski has shown some cardio issues later in fights and Meerschaert has won fights in the third round, sometimes with seconds to spare, which favors the overall staying power of “GM3.” However, he has durability problems when rocked on the feet. I like the explosiveness of Petroski in this matchup to find a KO and stay safe in the grappling exchanges. I bet Petroski and used him as a parlay piece.

Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson
Notes:

Katona is 12-2 with 4 wins by finish.
Gibson is 19-8 with 11 wins by finish. “The Renegade” was submitted in 4 of his 8 losses.

Analysis:
This is the first of two Ultimate Fighter finale fights, and we have the most hated man from the show, Brad Katona, facing Cody Gibson. This fight sets up to be a striker vs. grappler matchup with Gibson, the larger fighter, with a four-inch height and a seven-inch reach advantage looking to keep the fight standing and Katona pushing for takedowns to drag the fight to the ground, where he will have his biggest edge. Katona will look to offensively wrestle, as he does not have the best takedown defense, and in his previous UFC stint, he was only able to defend at a 47% rate. I lean the +140 underdog Gibson, but not enough confidence for a bet. No Bet.

Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh
Notes:

Hubbard is 15-6 with 7 wins by finish. “Thud” was submitted in 2 of his 6 losses.
Holobaugh is 19-7 with 16 wins by finish. Kurt was stopped in 2 of his 7 losses.

Analysis:
This fight is the second Ultimate Fighter final and we have Austin “Thud” Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh. Hubbard won a lackluster split decision over Roosevelt Roberts to earn his way here and Holobaugh won a very exciting fight vs. Jason Knight by second round KO. Hubbard is the better wrestler of the two and has decent striking, which includes good leg kicks. Holobaugh is 37 years old now and is a brawler on the feet and has average to below average takedown defense. I think the difference maker in this fight will be just that, the wrestling, and that Hubbard will do just enough to win a decision. I lean Hubbard, but officially No Bet.

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin
Notes:

Rodrigues is 13-5 with 11 wins by finish. “RoboCop” was KO in 3 of his 5 losses.
Tiuliulin is 10-7 with 9 wins by KO. Denis was stopped in 5 of his 7 losses.

Analysis:
Denis Tiuliulin is 35 years old and has lost seven of 17 fights, and when he wins, it is by knockout in nine of his 10 victories. Gregory “RoboCop” Rodrigues is coming off a KO loss, but otherwise is 4-1 in the UFC with three wins by finish. Tiuliulin is dangerous on the feet, and with “RoboCop” just getting knocked out, I envision him taking the path of least resistance and getting takedowns, and ultimately, the finish. Tiuliulin has been submitted four times and struggles against takedowns. This seems like the perfect bounceback spot and opponent for Rodrigues to get back on track. I bet on Rodrigues and used him as a parlay piece.

Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares
Notes:

Weidman is 15-6 with all 10 wins by finish. “The All American”” was KO in all 6 of his losses.
Tavares is 19-8 with 7 wins by finish. Brad was KO in 4 of his 8 losses.

Analysis:
In the featured prelim, we have Chris Weidman, who is now 39 years old, returning to the Octagon after a 2.5-year layoff due to a nasty leg break in his fight vs. Uriah Hall. Even before that fight, “The All American” was looking a bit chinny, being knocked out in five of his last seven fights. Brad Tavares is also coming in on a losing streak, dropping his last two. Tavares is a low-output fighter, but is solid everywhere. Just like Weidman, Tavares has shown to wear, being knocked out in his last fight and now four times in his eight losses. It is tough to bet on Weidman at this stage in his career and Tavares has more left in the tank. If Weidman is able to grapple before his leg or chin fail him, he is live as a big underdog. So many variables, and I will be rooting for Chris, but as of now, I have no bet. Depending how my bets start, I might add a small play on “The All-American.” No Bet.

Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz
Notes:

Vera is 20-8-1 with 16 wins by finish.
Munhoz is 20-7 with 13 wins by finish.

Analysis:
Both fighters are extremely durable and have never been finished in their combined 58 fight career. “Chito” Vera lost a five-round decision to top of the division fighter Cory Sandhagen his last time out and was on a four-fight winning streak prior. Pedro Munhoz is coming in off a unanimous decision win, a no contest previously, and dropped four of his five fights prior to that. I think that “The Young Punisher’s” last fight was fools gold and “Chito” is going to put it on him here. Vera is two inches taller, has a five-inch reach advantage, and is six years younger, and is very durable. Munhoz will throw volume and has good leg kicks, but so does the bigger, younger fighter in Vera. It is tough to lay money on “Chito,” as he is typically a slow starter, and now in a three-round fight, I don’t want my wager to depend on the judges. No Bet.

D’Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista
Notes:

Blackshear is 14-5-1 with 11 wins by finish, including 9 by submission.
Bautista is 12-2 with 9 wins by finish. Mario was stopped in both of his losses.

Analysis:
D’Mon Blackshear is looking to make history with the fastest turnaround in company history. Blackshear just fought Saturday night and won with a historic twister submission, the third in UFC history. Now Da’Mon will have to cut weight again within six days, a very tall task alone, yet against a very good opponent. Mario Bautista is 12-2 with nine wins by finish and is currently riding a four-fight winning streak, with three first round submissions. Mario pushes a high pace striking attack and is a good wrestler, averaging three takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. Blackshear is slightly taller and will have a three-inch reach advantage in this matchup and will look to use hard kicks to the body to close the distance and get the fight to the floor. The problem with that plan is that Bautista has very good wrestling and submissions and will have a definitive edge on the feet in the striking department. I think the turnaround will be too much for Blackshear to overcome and Bautista will get stronger the longer the fight goes. I bet Bautista and used him as a parlay piece.

Neil Magny vs. Ian Garry
Notes:

Magny is 28-10 with 11 wins by finish. “The Haitian Sensation” was stopped in 8 of his 10 losses.
Garry is 12-0 with 8 wins by finish, including 7 by KO.

Analysis:
Neil Magny is a late notice replacement and took this fight on seven days’ notice. Ian Garry is a 12-0 undefeated prospect and has looked improved in each of his outings. “The Future” is 5-0 in the UFC with three wins by KO and is a good striker with power and a high-volume output. Magny is a veteran who likes to grind his opponent against the cage and use top control after securing takedowns. Garry is good on the ground as well, and has only seemed to look a little behind when facing strikers who can exchange with him, and Magny is not that. Garry will be the significantly better striker, the more physical fighter, and I do not think Magny has the tools to hurt Garry, whereas Garry can shut Magny’s lights off and is also live for a submission. I bet Garry and used him as a parlay piece.

Weili Zhang vs. Amanda Lemos (women’s)
Notes:

Zhang is 23-3 with 19 wins inside the distance. “Magnum” was KO in 1 of her 3 losses.
Lemos is 13-2-1 with 11 wins by finish. “Amandinha” was stopped in both of her losses.

Analysis:
Weili Zhang is the current Champion and a fighter that I am very high on. I think that “Magnum” is a complete fighter with great striking, both volume and power, strong wrestling, good cardio, and good positional grappling and submissions. She has it all and continues to get better. A very scary proposition. Amanda Lemos is a finisher, with 11 of her 13 wins inside the distance, and is very powerful, but can slow down as the fight goes long. I like Weili to take over the fight as it progresses, and ultimately, get the finish. I bet Zhang and used her as a parlay piece.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley
Notes:

Sterling is 23-3 with 11 wins by finish. “Funk Master” was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
O’Malley is 16-1 with 12 wins by finish, including 11 by KO. “Sugar” was KO in his only loss.

Analysis:
Aljamain Sterling is in the talk for the greatest bantamweight in UFC history and a victory here vs. Sean O’Malley will help solidify that cause. “Sugar” Sean is 16-1 with 12 finishes, including 11 wins by KO. O’Malley’s only loss was to Marlon Vera after an injury cut the fight short. “Aljo” is very well-rounded and excels in Jiu Jitsu, especially taking the back of his opponent and hunting for the rear naked choke. O’Malley will look to sprawl and brawl here in this striker vs. grappler matchup, where Sterling is going to look for takedowns. Aljamain only became the second fighter to take down Olympic Gold Medalist and former UFC Champion, Henry Cejudo, in his last fight, and he did it four times! O’Malley has the fight-ending power edge, but Sterling has that too, in addition to being the better minute winner. I like “Aljo” to get the win here. I bet Sterling and used him as a parlay piece.

UFC 292 – Official Bets: