Conmann’s 3/9/24 UFC 299 Betting Blueprint

Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:

Today’s UFC 299 event is a 14-fight card with the early prelims starting at 6:00PM on ESPN+ followed by the featured prelims at 8:00 on ESPN and the Main Card at 10:00 on PPV. We have eight bets! Enjoy the UFC 299 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord voice chat at 4pm EST

Betting Terms Key:

  • ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
  • Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
  • Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”

Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz

  • Wood is 16-8 with 6 wins by finish, including 5 by KO. “JoJo” was submitted in 5 of her 8 losses. 
  • Moroz is 11-5 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 by submission. “The Iron Lady” was submitted in 1 of her 5 losses.

Today’s UFC 299 card opens with a lackluster women’s fight between Joanne Wood, who is now 38 years old and 2-4 her last six fights, vs. Maryna Moroz, who is on a two-fight losing streak. Moroz is six years younger with a one-inch height and a two-inch reach advantage, and has a clear path to victory through her grappling and submission game, as that has proved to be the path to defeat Wood, who has been submitted in five of her eight losses. With 14 fights on this card, I am not going to try to even guess what is going to happen here.

No Bet.

C.J. Vergara vs. Asu Almabaev

  • Vergara is 12-4-1 with 7 wins by KO. C.J. was submitted in 2 of his 4 losses. 
  • Almabaev is 18-2 with 12 wins by finish, including 9 by submission. “Zulfikhar” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.

Asu Almabaev looked very impressive in his UFC debut, which was a second round submission victory over a tough veteran, Ode Osbourne, and has an overall record of 18-2 with 12 wins by finish. Vergara missed weight for this fight by one pound and looked a little worn on the scales. Almabaev is a very well-rounded fighter with good striking, including thudding leg kicks, but his major strength is his grappling, as shown by his nine submission victories. Vergara has a good boxing-style striking game and excellent cardio, which with him missing weight for this fight, is something to keep an eye on for live betting if this fight gets extended. Vergara gives up his back in a lot of fights and Almabaev excels at taking the back of his opponent, which is not a good situation for CJ in this fight. I like Almabaev in this matchup to out-grapple Vergara for the win. 

I bet Almabaev and used him in a parlay.

Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian

  • Despaigne is 4-0 with 4 wins by KO. Despaigne is making his UFC debut. 
  • Parisian is 15-7 with 13 wins by finish, including 11 by KO. Josh was stopped in 4 of his 7 losses.

Robelis Despaigne is making his long-heralded UFC debut and is 4-0 with all four wins by first round KO. He will be taking on Josh Parisian, who is 2-4 in the UFC and on a two-fight losing streak. Despaigne is a bronze medal-winning Tae Kwon Do Olympian from Cuba and will have a three-inch height and a five-inch reach advantage in this matchup, which will favor his style of striking, which utilizes footwork and distancing. Despaigne has starched everyone put in front of him thus far, including his last three opponents, which he finished in an astonishing, combined 19 seconds. Let that sink in, three wins in a combined 19 seconds. He touches people and they go to sleep. Now he gets a big, stiff, immobile Parisian, who is tailor-made to showcase the Cuban in Miami in front of a somewhat home crowd, as there will be a large Cuban presence in the arena. If Parisian gets a takedown and gets on top of Despaigne, he could be in trouble, but I think the Olympian shuts his lights off right quick. 

I bet Despaigne to win in under a ½ round on DraftKings +200, risking 1 to win 2 units.

Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

  • Pereira is 29-11 with 18 wins by finish. “Demolidor” was stopped in 2 of his 11 losses.
  • Oleksiejczuk is 19-6 with 15 wins by finish, including 14 by KO. “Hussar” was stopped in 5 of his 6 losses.

Michel Pereira is riding a six-fight winning streak and is coming off an impressive first round KO over Andre Petroski in his last fight. Michal Oleksiejczuk is a fun striker, who is 7-4 in the UFC, with six of those wins by KO. Although a devastating KO artist, “Hussar” is one-dimensional and lacks in all other areas, which could be a problem against Pereira, who is a very athletic striker who also possesses the ability to wrestle and grapple. “Demolidor” is 7-2 in the UFC and has looked better each fight and has shown that he has fixed his cardio issues, which plagued him earlier in his career. Although Pereira can strike with Oleksiejczuk, his biggest advantage will be on the ground, and Michel would be wise to get the fight there using his 94% takedown accuracy vs. Michal’s 48% takedown defense. Pereira is also extremely durable and has only been stopped in two of his 11 losses. I like Pereira in this spot and think he gets the job done, whether by dominant decision or a finish. 

I bet Pereira -145, risking 2.9 to win 2 units.

ViIon Cutelaba vs. Philipe Lins

  • Cutelaba is 17-9-1 with 15 wins by finish, including 13 by KO. “The Hulk” was stopped in all 7 of his 9 losses.
  • Lins is 17-5 with 13 wins by finish. “Monstro” was KO in 4 of his 5 losses.

It is very tough to bet on and play Philipe Lins fights, as he has cancelled fights multiple times throughout his career, both leading up to the fight, and even worse, during fight day after DFS lineup lock, which decimates your entries. I have learned my lesson and will NOT play many lineups in DFS with this fight, but if it does indeed happen, I anticipate violence. Both fighters combined have had 28 of their 34 wins and 11 of their 14 losses end by finish. Cutelaba is extremely explosive with huge power and good wrestling, yet has shown cardio issues, and Lins is a low-volume striker, but it is very tough to play that style of fight vs. “The Hulk,” as Cutelaba fights at such an insane pace. 

I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it in a parlay.

Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Philips

  • Munhoz is 20-8 with 13 wins by finish, including 8 by submission. 
  • Philips is 11-2 with 7 wins by finish.

Pedro Munhoz and Kyler Philips are both extremely durable fighters who have combined for 41 career fights with 10 losses, yet they have never been finished. Munhoz has faced the much tougher competition and Philips has been inactive, with only four fights in the last three years. Munhoz is a low-volume striker with very good leg kicks and exceptional takedown defense and Philips is a very explosive, athletic fighter with good power in his strikes, as well as being a good wrestler and grappler holding a black belt in BJJ. “Matrix” has most of the pure, raw talent edges over Munhoz. However, he has shown to slow down in tough fights, and with the durability of Munhoz, it will be tough for him to find a finish. With the line where it is at, Philips -235, I like Munhoz at the dog price to hang in there, fight for my money, and hopefully pull off a victory. 

I bet Munhoz + 190, risking 1 to win 1.90 units.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

  • Gamrot is 23-2 with 13 wins by finish. 
  • Dos Anjos is 32-15 with 16 wins by finish, including 11 by submission. Rafael was stopped in 4 of his 15 losses.

Mateusz Gamrot is on a two-fight winning streak and is 6-2 overall during his eight-fight UFC run. Rafael Dos Anjos is a former champion and is 21-13 in his 34 UFC fights spanning across two weight classes. Gamrot is a beast of a wrestler, averaging 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, and that will be trouble for Dos Anjos, who struggles to defend takedowns at a near 50% rate. Now at 39 years old, Dos Anjos has finally shown signs of slowing down, and in his last fight vs. Vicente Luque, it was evident. I like Gamrot, who is bigger, younger, and will also have the cardio edge to ragdoll RDA with takedowns for as long as this fight lasts, whether it ends early or if it goes the distance for a dominant decision victory. 

I bet Gamrot and used him in a parlay.

Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber

  • Cerminara is 18-5 with 3 wins by finish. “Blonde Fighter” was KO in 2 of her 5 losses.
  • Barber is 13-2 with 8 wins by finish, including 6 by KO.

Katlyn Cerminara, formerly Chookagian, is a high-volume, low-to-no-power striker who has done a great job being the gatekeeper in the women’s division, pretty much beating everyone except for top of the division fighters who were Champions or title contenders. Maycee Barber is only 25 years old and has a wealth of UFC experience over her 8-2, 10-fight UFC career that started in 2018 when “The Future” was only 19 years old. Barber is a very physical fighter with big power and is also good on the ground, specifically with top control and ground and pound. Cerminara is now 35 years old and will be 10 years older than Barber and I think they are just at different points of their careers. I lean Barber, but at a -210 favorite, not enough to bet. 

No Bet.

Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida

  • Blaydes is 17-4 with 12 wins by KO.  “Razor” was KO in all 4 of his losses.
  • Almeida is 20-2 with 19 wins by finish. “Malhadinho” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.

What a heavyweight BANGER we have here with top of the division fighter, Curtis “Razor” Blaydes, vs. Jailton Almeida, who is an absolute unit of a man. Almeida is coming off a dominant decision win over Derrick Lewis, but the market has soured on him a bit because he was unable to finish “The Black Beast,” although he controlled him for the full 15 minutes of the fight. Blaydes is a beast of a wrestler and has decent striking, and what makes this fight extra interesting is that not many men have tried to wrestle Blaydes, and that is what we will see here from Almeida, who will also have a significant advantage in the Jiu Jitsu department. I think this fight comes down to who will be able to control top position on the ground and I think it will be Jailton, who is getting a nice discount on the line due to his last time out. 

I bet Almeida -115, risking 2.3 to win 2 units.

Petr Yan vs. Yadong Song

  • Yan is 16-5 with 8 wins by finish, including 7 by KO. 
  • Song is 21-7-1 with 12 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “Kung Fu Kid” was KO in 2 of his 7 losses.

Petr Yan vs. Yadong Song opens the Main Card on PPV in what should be a banger of a striking match. Yan is a former Champion and has fought ultra-premium opponents in his last several fights, including Aljamain Sterling twice, Merab, Sean O’Malley, Jose Aldo, and Corey Sandhagen. It is such a killer group of opponents that Yadong is technically a step down. “Kung Fu Kid” has won five of his last six fights and is a powerful striker with nine KOs. With striking as his best attribute, Yadong sets up as a perfect opponent for Yan, as striking is his best skillset as well. I like this matchup as a good bounce back spot for Yan.

I bet Yan -125, risking 2.5 to win 2 units.

Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena

  • Burns is 22-6 with 15 wins by finish. “Durinho” was KO in 2 of his 6 losses.
  • Della Maddalena is 16-2 with 13 wins by finish, including 11 by KO. Jack was stopped in both of his losses.

Jack Della Maddalena is 6-0 in the UFC with four wins by finish and he will now be facing longtime veteran, Gilbert Burns. “Durinho” is a very good BJJ black belt and has nine of his 22 wins by submission. One knock on Burns, historically, has been his gas tank and if he is unable to get this fight to the ground, I anticipate Della Maddalena to piece him up and most likely get the KO victory. The key to this fight is wrestling. Although he came away with the win, Della Maddalena struggled with the aggressive wrestling style of late notice, debutin, Bassil Haffez just two fights ago. Burns is exceptional on the ground, but he is a below average wrestler and only gets takedowns at a 35% rate. This fight is a dog or pass for me and as of now, I am going to pass. 

No Bet.

Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page

  • Holland is 25-10 with 21 wins by finish. “Trailblazer” was stopped in 4 of his 10 losses.
  • Page is 21-2 with 16 wins by finish, including 13 by KO. “Venom” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.

Michael “Venom” Page will finally make his UFC debut after an illustrious 21-2 career (mostly in Bellator) and will face Kevin Holland in what should be a fan-friendly fight with a lot of showmanship. Holland is 12-7 in the UFC across two weight classes and is predominantly a striker, but has good submissions. Where “Trailblazer” can be beaten is by strong wrestlers, which Page is not. Holland, by all rights, is the much better grappler and he should take the fight to the floor where he will have his biggest advantage, but he won’t. Page has a dazzling skillset of awkward angle kicks, punches, and elbows and could put anyone’s lights out quickly. This fight also, unfortunately, has the potential to be a dud, as both fighters could be extra cautious, and even worse, high-five each other during moments in the cage. I despise that by the way… Holland is the more complete fighter and should get the win, but I cannot trust him enough to execute in the areas that will get the victory. On the feet, this is anyone’s fight to win.

No Bet.

Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis

  • Poirier is 29-8 with 22 wins by finish, including 14 by KO. “The Diamond” was stopped in 6 of his 8 losses.
  • Saint Denis is 13-1 with all 13 wins by finish.

Benoit Saint Denis is an absolute handful of a fighter to face as he has powerful kicks, very good wrestling, and good submissions. Dustin Poirier is a longtime UFC veteran, and he has faced the who’s who in MMA and has now made a ton of money with his Conor McGregor fights, in addition to his business ventures that include a hot sauce company. Poirier has said some questionable things leading into this fight, which is something that you never want to see or hear, including him pondering retirement. The opposite sentiment is presented by Saint Denis, who is nicknamed “The God Of War” and has won all 13 fights by finish. Poirier is a southpaw boxer who utilizes a long stance and awkward striking angles, and he is adept in Jiu Jitsu, and specifically, has a good guillotine choke. One knock on Poirier is his takedown defense and the fact that he gives up his back a lot, which is not a good recipe vs. Saint Denis, who is very good in both areas. I like Saint Denis here to press the action through his grappling and wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish “The Diamond.”

I bet Saint Denis and used him in a parlay.

Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera

  • O’Malley is 17-1 with 13 wins by finish, including 12 wins by KO. “Sugar” was KO in his only loss.
  • Vera is 23-8-1 with 18 wins by finish.

This fight is a rematch from a 2020 fight, which gave O’Malley the only blemish on his record, as “Chito” Vera won by TKO due to an injury suffered by “Sugar” Sean. Since that fight, O’Malley has gone 5-0-1 and became UFC Champion with a win in his last fight, a KO of Aljamain Sterling. Vera is an extremely durable fighter, who has never been stopped in 32 fights and fights at a slow pace with solid leg kicks, and when the fight hits the ground, he has plus grappling and submissions. O’Malley is a very good striker, and he uses excellent footwork and spacing to stay on the outside and fight long. One of O’Malley’s weaknesses is his takedown defense and Vera should look to wrestle early and often here. I do not expect O’Malley to be the first fighter to finish “Chito” and Vera has ways to win this fight, so as a +220 underdog, Vera is live.

I bet Vera +220, risking 1 to win 2.2 units.

UFC 299 – Official Bets: 

  • 6:30: Almabaev, Gamrot, Lins/Cutelaba fight ITD parlay -128 (1.28 to win 1 unit)
  • 6:30: Almabaev/Gamrot/Saint Denis +110 (4 to win 4.4 units)
  • 7:00: Despaigne & UN ½ Round +200 (1 to win 2 units)
  • 7:30: Pereira -145 (2.9 to win 2 units)
  • 8:30: Munhoz +190 (1 to win 1.9 units)
  • 9:30: Almeida -115 (2.3 to 2 units)
  • 10:00: Yan -125 (2.5 to 2 units)
  • 12:00: Vera +220 (1 to win 2.2 units)

Continue Reading: Conmann’s UFC 299 DraftKingsPlays