Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:
Today’s UFC Vegas 87 event is an 11-fight card starting at 1:30PM with the entire card airing on ESPN+. We have four bets! Enjoy the UFC Vegas 87 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord voice chat at 12pm EST
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Loik Radzhabov vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Notes:
- Radzhabov is 17-5-1 with 12 wins by finish. “Jaguar Paw” was KO in 1 of his 5 losses.
- Al-Selwady is 15-3 with 10 wins by finish, including 8 by KO. Abdul was KO in all 3 of his losses.
- Al-Selwady is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady is making his UFC debut, and in addition to having a double hyphenated name, he carries big power in his strikes and is well-rounded with a solid grappling game. Loik Radzhabov is 1-1 in the UFC and coming off a second round KO loss. “Jaguar Paw” also is a powerful striker, but his strength is his wrestling, as shown with 11 takedowns in his UFC debut. An area of concern for Radzhabov is his cardio and durability, which could play right into the gameplan of Al-Selwady, who pushes a high pace. Durability is also a concern for Abdul, as he has been KO in all three of his losses. Despite his poor cardio, Radzhabov was only stopped for the first time in his career last fight and is very dangerous offensively. This is a tough fight to confidently predict, and I will pass on a wager.
No Bet.
Ludovit Klein vs. AJ Cunningham
Notes:
- Klein is 20-4 with 16 wins by finish. “Mr. Highlight” was stopped in 3 of his 4 losses.
- Cunningham is 11-3 with 8 wins by finish. “The Savage” was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:
AJ Cunningham showed decent striking and volume in his UFC debut, which only lasted for inside of two rounds. However, he struggled with the striking of his opponent and now faces a high-level striker in Ludovit Klein. Klein is 4-2-1 in his seven UFC fights and is coming off a win his last time out. “Mr. Highlight” is an explosive finisher with 16 of his 20 wins by finish and Cunningham is a step down in competition from fighters that he already faced and defeated in the UFC. Cunningham is very hittable on the feet, which spells doom for him vs. Klein, and AJ is not very good on the ground, which will give Klein the ability to dictate where he would like this fight to take place. Klein is a ridiculous -1000 favorite, which makes him tough to bet on the money line. I do think Klein wins and most likely gets the finish, and at -250, that would be the play for me.
I bet Klein ITD and used it as a parlay piece.
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Claudio Ribeiro
Notes:
- Duncan is 9-1 with 8 wins by finish, including 7 by KO.
- Ribeiro is 11-4 with all 11 wins by KO. Claudio was stopped in 3 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:
This fight screams VIOLENCE, as Claudio Ribeiro has all 11 wins by finish and was stopped in three of his four losses, vs. Christian Leroy Duncan, who has won eight of his nine wins by finish. Ribeiro is a powerful striker, but he is very wild and sloppy. Duncan is also a very powerful striker, but does not offer much volume, and, in some fights, has long stretches of inactivity. I anticipate a car crash type of fight with both fighters looking for the finish. Duncan has shown that the longer fights go, the worse his cardio becomes, which is another sign pointing to this fight ending inside the distance.
I bet fight ITD and used it in a parlay.
Javid Basharat vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Notes:
- Basharat is 14-0 with 11 wins by finish.
- Zahabi is 10-2 with 8 wins by finish. Aiemann was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
Javid Basharat is undefeated at 14-0 with 11 finishes and is 3-0 in the UFC with three dominant, unanimous decision victories. Aiemann Zahabi is 4-2 in his six UFC fights, but has fought sparingly, as those six fights span over a seven-year period. Basharat is a very well-rounded fighter with crisp, technical boxing and a strong wrestling and overall grappling game. Zahabi is a low volume, technical striker with average takedown defense. I anticipate Basharat to have the speed advantage in the striking exchanges moving in and out of the pocket, as well as being the clearly better grappler.
I bet Basharat and used him in a parlay.
Vinicius de Oliveira vs. Bernardo Sopai
Notes:
- de Oliveira is 19-3 with 17 wins by finish, including 15 by KO. “Lok Dog” was KO in all 3 of his losses.
- Sopai is 11-2 with 10 wins by finish.
- Both fighters are making their UFC debut.
Analysis:
Vinicius de Oliveira is a very wild and exciting, all-action, kill-or-be-killed fighter. He was stopped in all three of his losses and has won by finish in 17 of his 19 wins. Bernardo Sopai is taking this fight as a late notice replacement on only four days’ notice. Sopai is 11-2 with 10 wins by finish and has good power with his strikes and utilizes fast combinations and leg kicks. Oliveira, as mentioned, is very wild and you will see jumping and spinning strikes, as he throws caution to the wind. This could be a spot where we see a quick finish either way and with both fighters making their UFC debut with Sopai on late notice and Oliveira being so wild with below average durability, all roads lead to VIOLENCE!
I bet fight to end ITD and used it in a parlay.
Eryk Anders vs. Jamie Pickett
Notes:
- Anders is 15-8 with 10 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “Ya Boi” was stopped in 2 of his 8 losses.
- Pickett is 13-10 with 9 wins by KO. “The Nightwolf” was stopped in 6 of his 10 losses.
Analysis:
Eryk Anders is an athletic, well-rounded fighter who is a plus-athlete, fighting Jamie Pickett, who is 2-4 in the UFC and currently on a four-fight losing streak with three of those losses by finish. Anders fights out of a southpaw stance and has a very powerful overhand left that he uses very well to set up his takedowns. Pickett is very long for the division and will have a one-inch height and a five-inch reach advantage in this matchup. “The Nightwolf” is not particularly great in any one area, but despite his record, is not a pushover. I like the durability and strength of Anders to be able to use his wrestling to be the difference maker here, and if the striking exchanges are not going his way, I look for “Ya Boi” to pin Pickett up against the cage to win control time minutes and get takedowns.
I bet Anders and used him in a parlay.
Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg
Notes:
- Schnell is 16-7-1 with 11 wins by finish, including 9 by submission. “Danger” was stopped in 6 of his 7 losses.
- Erceg is 11-1 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 by submission.
Analysis:
Matt Schnell is 6-5-1 in his 12 UFC fights and is an exciting, all-action, all the time type of fighter. Steve Erceg is 2-0 in the UFC and has looked very good in both wins via unanimous decision. “Astro Boy” is primarily a grappler, with six of his 11 wins by submission, but he has also showcased a granite chin and durability in the striking department, which needs some improvement, but he has proved his durability. Schnell is returning after a 15-month layoff and a KO loss. “Danger” has now lost two of his last three fights, having been finished in both losses with his win being a submission. Unlike Erceg, Schnell has questionable durability, and when paired with the layoff and the fact that Erceg will have the grappling edge, I believe Erceg has him covered everywhere. I like Erceg here and think that he most likely hurts Schnell early and gets the finish.
I bet Erceg and used him in a parlay.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan
Notes:
- Nurmagomedov is 16-0 with 9 wins by finish.
- Almakhan is 14-1 with 13 wins by finish, including 12 by KO. Bekzat was submitted in his only loss.
- Almakhan is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
Bekzat Almakhan is a late notice replacement who enters his UFC debut on an eight-fight winning streak and has the tall task of facing off against Umar Nurmagomedov, who is undefeated at 16-0 and is 4-0 in the UFC with three wins by finish. Almakhan is a solid fighter with big power, as evidenced by his 12 wins by KO. Nurmagomedov is an elite wrestler, as you would expect from his last name, and has been blessed with big power, and it was on display in his last fight, a first round KO. This is a lot to ask of a striker to debut vs. such an elite grappler with such experience in Nurmagomedov and the ridiculous line shows just that, with Umar an absurd -1400 favorite. That line makes this fight unbettable, but Nurmagomedov should most likely get the win.
No bet.
Alex Perez vs. Muhammad Mokaev
Notes:
- Perez is 24-7 with 12 wins by finish. Alex was stopped in 6 of his 7 losses.
- Mokaev is 11-0 with 8 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Alex Perez has not won a fight since 2020 and has not seen a third round since 2019 and now returns after a 20-month layoff to face an 11-0 undefeated phenom, Muhammad Mokaev, who is 5-0 in the UFC thus far. Historically, Perez has big power in his striking game, including good kicks and has a plus-wrestling and grappling game rounding out a well-rounded skillset. Mokaev is a tenacious wrestler, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon and has six submission victories. A large part of Perez’s inactivity is due to cancelled bouts, which are largely his fault, as he struggles to make weight. With all things considered, if this fight happens, I strongly favor Mokaev, who is eight years younger with a one-inch height and five-inch reach advantage. I am surprised that this line is not much higher than where it sits now at -355 and I will gladly bet Mokaev to win.
I bet Mokaev and used him in a parlay.
Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro
Notes:
- Petrino is 10-0 with 8 wins by finish, including 7 by KO.
- Pedro is 10-4 with all 10 wins by finish. Tyson was stopped in 2 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:
This fight should be a banger between Vitor Petrino and Tyson Pedro. Both fighters combine for 20 of their 24 career fights ending by finish. Pedro won by first round KO in his last fight and has won three of his last four. Petrino is a powerful striker with decent wrestling, averaging over four takedowns thus far per 15 minutes in the Octagon. Pedro is well-rounded with very good kicks in his striking and good grappling. His cardio, however, has been an ongoing concern. I like Petrino as the younger fighter with a better gas tank to be able to dominate this fight in all areas and get the win.
I bet Petrino and used him as a parlay piece.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
Notes:
- Rozenstruik is 13-5 with 12 wins by KO. “Bigi Boy” was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
- Gaziev is 12-0 with 11 wins by finish.
Analysis:
The Main Event features the big boys, a good ole heavyweight scrap between the 12-0 undefeated, Shamil Gaziev, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who is 7-5 in his 12 UFC fights. Gaziev looked impressive in his UFC debut, which was a second round KO over Martin Buday who was previously unbeaten in the UFC with four wins. Rozenstruik was submitted in the first round in his last fight and has now lost three of his last four. Gaziev is a powerful striker and wrestler, with eight first round wins. Rozenstruik will be the better pure kickboxer and has a ton of power, winning 12 of his 13 wins by KO. Gaziev would be wise to get this fight to the ground early and often, as Rozenstruik, a former kickboxing world champion, has looked lost when put on his back and has been taken down over 10 times in his UFC career. I like the ascending fighter vs. descending fighter angle here, and as this fight was originally scheduled for Abu Dhabi, Gaziev was the A side. I like Gaziev to use his wrestling to get a ground and pound or submission victory.
I bet Gaziev and used him in a parlay.
UFC Vegas 87 – Official Bets:
- 2:00: Klein ITD/Anders parlay -152 (3.04 to win 2 units)
- 2:30: Duncan/Ribeiro fight ITD & Oliveira/Sopai fight ITD parlay -125 (2.5 to win 2 units)
- 3:00: Basharat/Erceg/Mokaev parlay -132 (3.96 to win 3 units)
- 6:00: Petrino/Gaziev parlay +110 (3 to win 3.3 units)
