Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:
Today’s UFC Vegas 85 event is a 13-fight card starting at 4:00PM with the card airing in its entirety on ESPN+. We have a robust nine total bets, including a +850 prop bet! Enjoy the UFC Vegas 85 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord at 2pm EST
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Thomas Petersen vs. Jamal Pogues
Notes:
- Petersen is 8-1 with all 9 fights ending by finish. “The Train” is making his UFC debut.
- Pogues is 10-4 with 5 wins by finish. “The Stormtrooper” was stopped in 3 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:
Thomas Petersen is making his UFC debut after earning a contract on this season’s Contender Series with a second round submission. Jamal Pogues is coming off a unanimous decision loss and is now 1-1 in his UFC fights. Both men can wrestle and Pogues will have a two-inch height and a three-inch reach advantage. Peterson is a kill-or-be-killed fighter, with all nine of his fights ending inside the distance, and Pogues has been stopped in three of his four losses, but does not have big power and has only half of his wins by finish. I think that Petersen is the better grappler and has more finishing upside in this matchup, which I like for both a betting and DFS standpoint.
I bet this fight two ways, Petersen to win ITD +130, risking 2 to win 2.6 units and Petersen via submission +850, risking 1 to win 8.5 units.
Landon Quinones vs. Marquel Mederos
Notes:
- Quinones is 7-2-1 with 6 wins by finish.
- Mederos is 8-1 with 6 wins by KO. Marquel is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
This is a very well-matched fight with Marquel Mederos making his UFC debut after a first round KO victory on this season’s Contender Series, facing Landon Quinones, who lost his UFC debut as a late notice replacement vs. a very tough Nasrat Haqparast. Both fighters are powerful strikers, each with the ability to wrestle when needed. This is a very tough fight for me to confidently make a pick on as I can make an argument for both sides.
No Bet.
Luana Carolina vs. Julija Stoliarenko (women’s)
Notes:
- Carolina is 9-4 with 3 wins by finish. “Dread” was stopped in 2 of her 4 losses.
- Stoliarenko is 11-7-2 with 10 wins by submission. Julija was stopped in 4 of her 7 losses.
Analysis:
Luana Carolina is 4-3 in her seven UFC fights and Julija Stoliarenko is 2-4 in her six UFC fights, making it appear on the surface that Carolina might be a live underdog. However, I see it as Stoliarenko showing signs of growth and Carolina middling. Stoliarenko looked physically better in her last appearance and fought aggressively, derailing the Molly “Meatball” express with a first round submission. Julija is a one-trick pony as an armbar specialist, but it is a great trick as she has 10 wins via first round armbar. Carolina is a Muay Thai style striker with long limbs and that is good for distance striking, but very bad for armbars. “Dread” has been taken down two times in each of her last four fights, and in this matchup, all it will take is for one from Stoliarenko.
I bet Stoliarenko to win via submission round 1 +320, risking 1 to win 3.2 units and I also bet fight to NOT start round 3 +110, risking 1 to win 1.1 units.
Jeong Yeong Lee vs. Blake Bilder
Notes:
- Lee is 10-1 with 7 wins by finish.
- Bilder is 8-1-1 with 5 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Blake Builder is coming off his first career loss in his last fight, a unanimous decision in which he looked lackluster. Jeong Yeong Lee won in his UFC debut last fight and is now riding a seven-fight winning streak with five finishes. Bilder is a high volume striker with decent power, and good grappling, however, his wrestling is average. Lee is predominantly a striker with good power, and he will have a two-inch height and a five-inch reach advantage in this matchup, in addition to also being five years younger than Bilder. I like either Lee to get a KO or Bilder to get a submission. I think this will play out as a striker vs. grappler affair with one man exerting his dominance over the other.
I bet fight to end inside the distance -144.
Themba Gorimbo vs. Pete Rodriguez
Notes:
- Gorimbo is 11-4 with 7 wins by finish including 6 by submission. “The Answer” was stopped in 3 of his 4 losses.
- Rodriguez is 5-1 with 5 wins by KO. “Dead Game” was KO in his only loss.
Analysis:
This should be a fun fight between Themba Gorimbo, who is 1-1 in the UFC, vs. Pete Rodriguez, who is also 1-1. Rodriguez is the ultimate kill-or-be-killed striker style with all six career fights ending by round 1 KO. Gorimbo does not fit the bill as KO artist, as he is more of a grappler and averages almost four takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. “The Answer” is a low volume striker who uses leg kicks to close the distance and bring fights to the ground, where he will have a big edge over Rodriguez. “Dead Game” is returning after a 1.5-year layoff and is a very explosive and powerful striker with a wild brawling style and unproven grappling and cardio due to the quick nature of his fights. I think either Rodriguez starches Gorimbo quickly or he gets taken down and ultimately submitted. I like this fight to end inside the distance.
I bet Fight ITD and used it in a parlay.
Azat Maksum vs. Charles Johnson
Notes:
- Maksum is 17-0 with 12 wins by finish.
- Johnson is 13-6 with 9 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Azat Maksum won his UFC debut vs. a tough veteran, Tyson Nam, by split decision his last time out to keep his record perfect at 17-0. Charles Johnson is on a three-fight losing streak and is 2-4 in his UFC fights and very likely fighting for his job here, as a loss might send him packing. “InnerG” has been taken down 31 times in his six UFC fights and now faces a strong, undefeated wrestler. This fight’s blueprint is simple, Maksum will spam takedowns and Johnson will look to keep the fight standing. Although Johnson has been taken down so much, he is very durable and has never been stopped in his six losses. This matchup is very good style-wise for Maksum and I think he will use his wrestling to keep his perfect record intact.
I bet Maksum and used him in a parlay.
Molly McCann vs. Diana Belbita (women’s)
Notes:
- McCann is 13-6 with 6 wins by KO. “Meatball” was submitted in 3 of her 6 losses.
- Belbita is 15-8 with 10 wins by finish. “Warrior Princess” was submitted in 4 of her 8 losses.
Analysis:
Molly McCann is dropping down a weight class after dropping her last two fights and is now 6-5 in her 11 UFC fights, which includes a win over her opponent, Diana Belbita, back in 2019. Belbita is 2-4 in her six UFC fights and is a high-volume striker with not much else to offer. Molly McCann is a brawler with good power, and she has the ability to wrestle when needed and we saw that in the first fight when “Meatball” took Belbita down five times in addition to out striking her 113-98 and having over two minutes more of control time when on the ground. Belbita took this fight on late notice and Molly looks determined to get back in the win column. I don’t see much changing that Belbita is going to exact her revenge. McCann wins again.
I bet Molly and used her in a parlay.
Gilbert Urbina vs. Charlie Radtke
Notes:
- Urbina is 7-2 with 4 wins by finish. Gilbert was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
- Radtke is 8-3 with 5 wins by finish. “Chuck Buffalo” was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:
Charlie Radtke won his UFC debut in his last fight in what was an unimpressive decision victory over “Blood Diamond,” who he could not finish. Gilbert Urbina is 1-1 in his two UFC fights after picking up his first win via KO in his last fight. Urbina is HUGE and will have a six-inch height and a three-inch reach advantage. Radtke is well-rounded, but does not excel anywhere and lacks in the takedown defense department. Urbina is a high output striker with good wrestling, as he averages four takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. I think Urbina is the better wrestler, the better overall fighter, and has more finishing upside.
I bet Urbina and used him as a parlay piece.
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Makhmud Muradov
Notes:
- Khizriev is 12-0 with 9 wins by finish.
- Muradov is 26-8 with 20 wins by finish including 17 by KO. “Mach” was stopped in 5 of his 8 losses.
Analysis:
Aliaskhab Khizriev is returning after a two-year layoff, and he looked like a different man at weigh-ins with a beefed up body compared to his physique in the past. “Black Wolf” fights sparingly, but when he does fight, he looks great, as attributed to his undefeated 12-0 record. Makhmud Muradov is 4-2 in his six UFC fights, however, he is 1-2 in his last three. “Mach” is a member of Floyd Mayweather’s “Money Team” and has underperformed expectations thus far in the UFC, but is a highly-skilled and dangerous fighter. Khizriev is a tenacious grappler, averaging six takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon and has four wins by rear naked choke. Muradov is a very good striker and has shown he can wrestle, but he tends to struggle vs. better grapplers and that is what we have here in this fight. I think Khizriev will use his grappling to get the win and is also live for a submission.
I bet Khizriev -150, risking 3 to win 2 units.
Viviane Araujo vs. Natalia Silva (women’s)
Notes:
- Araujo is 12-5 with 7 wins by finish. “Vivi” was KO in 1 of her 5 losses.
- Silva is 16-5-1 with 12 wins by finish. Natalia was stopped in 3 of her 5 losses.
Analysis:
This fight sets up to be an ascending fighter vs. descending fighter angle that I like to wager on. Natalia Silva is on a 10-fight winning streak, including a 4-0 record in the UFC and is 11 years younger than Viviane Araujo, who won her last fight, but is showing signs of slowing down recently, especially in her cardio and durability. “Vivi” is a handful early with good power and black belt Jiu Jitsu, but slows down as the fight goes long. That could be a problem vs. the younger, more athletic, volume striking of Silva. Araujo is dangerous, but this is Silva’s fight to win and catapult into the top 10 in her division, setting up a big fight her next time out.
I bet Silva and used her in a parlay.
Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
Notes:
- Brown is 17-5 with 11 wins by finish. “Rude Boy” was stopped in 4 of his 5 losses.
- Salikhov is 19-4 with 15 wins by finish including 13 by KO. “King of Kung Fu” was stopped in 3 of 4 losses.
Analysis:
Muslim Salikhov has lost two of his last three fights and has looked worse for the wear, at a now declared 39 years old and rumored 44. Randy Brown is 11-5 in 16 UFC fights and has won five of his last six. “RudeBoy” will have a huge four-inch height and a three-inch reach advantage in addition to being six years younger (or more?). This should play out as a striking match, as Salikhov is a kickboxer and Brown likes to play a long striking game and stay on the outside. That type of fight will favor Salikhov. However, in the small Octagon at the Apex, I think it will force the action and Brown will grapple. I think that is the biggest edge in this fight. I like Brown to use his athleticism and wrestle when needed to get the win.
I bet on Brown and used him in a parlay.
Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober
Notes:
- Moicano is 17-5-1 with 10 wins by submission. “Moicano” was stopped in 4 of his 5 losses.
- Dober is 27-12 with 20 wins by finish including 14 by KO. Drew was stopped in 6 of his 12 losses.
Analysis:
VIOLENCE spot!!! This fight will end with either a Drew Dober KO or a Moicano submission. Simply put. A combined 17 of their last 19 fights ended inside the distance and the contrasting styles of Moicano, the grappler, and Dober, the striker, will pour even more gasoline on the flames. I envision a wild slugfest as soon as the bell rings, leading to either fighter dropping the other or Moicano getting Dober’s back in a scramble or taking him to the ground and winning by rear naked choke. All my potential outcomes lead to VIOLENCE!
I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it in a parlay.
Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Notes:
- Dolidze is 12-2 with 10 wins by finish.
- Imavov is 12-4 with 9 wins by finish. Nassourdine was stopped in 1 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:
This is a very good matchup in Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov. Dolidze lost his last time out to a top-of-the-division fighter in title challenger, Marvin Vettori, snapping a four-fight winning streak. Imavov has had a bit of a rough go lately with a loss and a no decision in his last two fights. The loss was to Sean Strickland and there is no shame in that, and the no contest was in a fight he was clearly dominating. Very tough matchup here and I can make an argument for both sides, but cannot take a definitive stance. Dolidze is more live for a finish and Imavov is the more likely minute winner. I lean Imavov to wear down Dolidze over the course of the five-round fight and get the win, but I hate betting against the explosive and dangerous Dolidze. I will pass from a bet and enjoy the Main Event.
No Bet.
UFC Vegas 85 – Official Bets:
- 4:00: Petersen ITD +130 (2 to win 2.6 units)
- 4:00: Petersen via SUB +850 (1 to win 8.5 units)
- 4:00: Stoliarenko via round 1 SUB +320 (1 to win 3.2 units)
- 4:00: Stoliarenko/Carolina fight to NOT start round 3 +110 (1 to win 1.1 units)
- 5:30: Lee/Bilder fight ITD & Silva parlay +122 (2 to win 2.44 units)
- 5:00: Gorimbo/Rodrigues fight ITD & Maksum parlay -139 (2.77 to win 2 units)
- 6:00: McCann/Urbina parlay +107 (2 to win 2.14 units)
- 6:00: Khizriev -150 (3 to win 2 units)
- 8:00: Brown & Moicano/Dober fight ITD -133 (3.99 to win 3 units)
