Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:
Today’s UFC Vegas 86 event is a 14-fight card starting at 4:00PM with the card airing in its entirety on ESPN+. We have five bets! Enjoy the UFC Vegas 86 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord at 2pm EST
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Daniel Marcos vs. Qileng Aori
Notes:
- Marcos is 15-0 with 8 wins by KO.
- Aori is 25-11 with 9 wins by finish, including 8 by KO. “Mongolian Murderer” was stopped 4 of his 11 losses.
Analysis:
Daniel Marcos is undefeated at 15-0 and 2-0 in the UFC and will be taking on Qileng Aori, who is 3-3 in his six UFC fights. This fight is a striker vs. striker matchup with Marcos, a high volume striker with good speed, vs. the power punching of Aori. “Mongolian Murder” is a pressure fighter who moves forward, looking to land big shots, but absorbs a bunch of strikes due to his style and striking defense. Marcos has decent power to compliment his volume and speed, but has shown to have suspect takedown defense. I favor the cardio of the undefeated Marcos in this matchup, and I expect him to take over as the fight goes long, as I have seen Aori fade when he gets extended.
I bet on Marcos and used him in a parlay.
Fernie Garcia vs. Hyder Amil
Notes:
- Garcia is 10-4 with 4 wins by finish.
- Amil is 8-0 with 5 wins by finish. “The Hurricane” is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
Fernie Garcia is a low-level, 0-3 UFC fighter who desperately needs a win here to keep his job and he will face Hyder Amil, who will be making his UFC debut off a Contender Series victory. Garcia took this fight as a late notice replacement and is a low-volume, powerless, boxing style striker with poor takedown defense. Amil has a brawling style, fighting out of the southpaw stance, and although powerful, he lacks in the striking defense department. Against a powerful striker that may be a problem, but I do not think Garcia has the power to capitalize on that. I favor the striking output and the superior cardio to be enough for Amil to win a decisive decision or perhaps get a late finish.
I bet on Amil and used him in a parlay.
Zac Pauga vs. Bogdan Guskov
Notes:
- Pauga is 6-2 with 1 win by KO. “The Ripper” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
- Guskov is 14-3 with all 14 wins by finish, including 12 by KO. Bogdan was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:
Zac Pauga has underwhelmed thus far in his 1-2 UFC career, and he will be taking on Bogdan Guskov, who dropped his UFC debut last time out vs. a very tough Volkan Oezdemir via first round submission. Pauga is a one-dimensional striker who does not offer much volume or power. Guskov has big power, as evidenced by his 12 KO wins in his 14 victories and has a 100% finishing rate in his 14 career wins. Pauga has decent cardio and could take over late if Guskov can’t find an early KO. For DFS purposes, I favor Guskov due to price and finishing upside, whereas Pauga generally does not score well. From a betting standpoint, I am a pass for now.
No Bet.
Max Griffin vs. Jeremiah Wells
Notes:
- Griffin is 19-10 with 11 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “Pain” was KO in 1 of his 10 losses.
- Wells is 12-3-1 with 9 wins by finish. Jeremiah was submitted in 1 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:
Max Griffin is 7-8 across his nine UFC fights and has alternated wins and losses in his last four fights. He is coming off a loss his last time out. Jeremiah Wells was submitted in his last fight, snapping his perfect 4-0 UFC run. Griffin is a well-rounded fighter with sharp striking, power in his strikes, and a good wrestling game. Wells is similarly well-rounded, with big power in his strikes and good wrestling, along with being a black belt in BJJ. At a combined age of 75, these fighters are past their primes, however, both are a handful for anyone that they face in the Octagon. I expect a fun, action-packed first round, where either fighter can hurt the other, but then I expect Wells to take over as he has the better cardio and Griffin usually starts to fade.
I bet Wells -150, risking 3 to win 2 units.
Devin Clark vs. Marcin Prachnio
Notes:
- Clark is 14-8 with 5 wins by finish. “Brown Bear” was stopped in 7 of his 8 losses.
- Prachnio is 16-7 with 12 wins by finish, including 11 by KO. Marcin was stopped in 5 of his 7 losses.
Analysis:
Devin Clark is 8-8 in his 16 UFC fights, and he will face Marcin Prachnio, who is 3-5 in his eight UFC fights. Both fighters were submitted in their last fight and the loser of this fight might receive his walking papers. Devin Clark is a grinder who likes to use his size and strength to bull his opponents up against the cage and secure takedowns to grind out victories. Prachnio is quite the opposite, as he is a one-dimensional striker with poor takedown defense. Both fighters have power in their strikes and can finish the other, however, I think the strength of “Brown Bear” Clark’s wrestling will be the ultimate difference maker as Prachnio only defends the takedown at a 54% clip. That is not good when facing a former college wrestler who relies on his wrestling to win fights. This is a great stylistic matchup for Clark.
I bet Clark and used him in a parlay.
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Bruna Brasil (women’s)
Notes:
- Lookboonmee is 8-3 with 2 wins by finish. “Loma Lookboonmee” was submitted in 1 of her 3 losses.
- Brasil is 9-3-1 with 5 wins by finish. “The Special One” was KO in all 3 of her losses.
Analysis:
Loma Lookboonmee has a respectable 5-2 record in her seven UFC fights and Bruna Brasil is an underwhelming 1-1, including a KO loss vs. a common opponent, Denise Gomes, who Lookboonmee beat handedly. Brasil will have a big size advantage with a five-inch height and a four-inch reach advantage. Lookboonmee is a Muay Thai style striker with a good clinch and exceptional kicks. Brasil is also a striker, which could be a detriment in this matchup vs. Lookboonmee, who has also shown the ability to wrestle and mix in takedowns. I like this matchup for Loma and think she gets a dominant win.
I bet Lookboonmee and used her in a parlay.
Timothy Cuamba vs. Bolaji Oki
Notes:
- Cuamba is 8-1 with 4 wins by KO. “Twilight Timmy” was submitted in his only loss.
- Oki is 8-1 with 6 wins by finish. “The Zulu Warrior” is making his UFC debut.
- Cuamba is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
Both fighters make their UFC debut with Timothy Cuamba accepting this fight as a late notice replacement on four days’ notice. Bolaji Oki is on an eight-fight winning streak after dropping his MMA debut and is coming off a first round KO on the Contender Series to earn his UFC contract. Cuamba is a striker who got a win on Contender Series, but did not earn a contract and fought just last weekend, earning a second round KO victory and the UFC call. Oki has raw power and was training for a fight, which gives him a slight edge in preparation, but something smells fishy here and I don’t like the variance with so many moving parts, thus leading me to abstain from a wager.
I lean Oki, but No Bet.
Trevin Giles vs. Carlos Prates
Notes:
- Giles is 16-5 with 11 wins by finish. “The Problem” was stopped in all 5 of his losses.
- Prates is 17-6 with 15 wins by finish. “Carlao” was stopped in 5 of his 6 losses.
- Prates is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
Carlos Prates is making his UFC debut vs. the 12-fight UFC veteran, Trevin Giles. “The Problem” is 7-5 in his 12 UFC fights and will have the experience edge vs. the newcomer. Prates is a good striker with power and has 12 KO’s in his 17 wins. Utilizing an aggressive style, including hard leg kicks, “Carlao” will look to use his one-inch height and four-inch reach advantage to keep Giles at range and look to make this a striking affair. Giles is a low volume striker with a boxing style, which includes a solid jab and good speed, but has below average cardio. I think that the volume and power of Prates will be consistent throughout the fight, and I look for “Carlao” to get stronger as the fight goes long and pick up a win in his UFC debut.
I bet on Prates and used him in a parlay.
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan
Notes:
- Vieira is 9-2 with all 9 wins by finish. “The Black Belt Hunter” was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
- Petrosyan is 9-2 with 6 wins by KO. “Superman” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
This fight is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup with Rodolfo Viera, a world-class grappler, vs. the athletic and explosive kickboxer, Armen Petrosyan. Viera is 4-2 in his six UFC fights and one of his losses was to a kickboxer, Chris Curtis, as Viera struggled finding takedowns and was forced to strike. Petrosyan is 3-1 in his four UFC fights, but unlike Curtis, who is known for his notoriously tough takedown defense, Petrosyan REALLY lacks in the takedown department with only a 36% takedown defense rate. It might only take one takedown by the “Blackbelt Hunter” to submit Petrosyan. However, the fight starts standing where “Superman” will have a HUGE advantage. This fight boils down to who wins the wrestling exchanges, pure and simple. Armen is very athletic and although easy to take down, he does a good job scrambling to his feet getting back up and he also has exceptional cardio. That just might be the difference here vs. Vieira, who has shown to fatigue in multiple fights. This fight is lined at a pick ’em and that is a great line, as it is just a guess in my opinion on how it will play out. Too close to call.
Pass, No Bet.
Michael Johnson vs. Darrius Flowers
Notes:
- Johnson is 21-19 with 11 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “The Menace” was stopped in 12 of his 19 losses.
- Flowers is 12-6-1 with 9 wins by finish, including 8 by KO. “Beast Mode” was stopped in all 6 of his losses.
Analysis:
Michael Johnson is a 28-fight UFC veteran with a 13-15 record. Darrius Flowers lost his UFC debut in his last fight via second round submission to Jake Matthews. “Beast Mode” has a kill or be killed style, with nine of his 12 wins by finish, and he has been stopped in all six of his losses. Johnson has been finished in 12 of his 19 losses. Flowers will have the power advantage and Johnson will have the size and speed advantage. Tough fight to confidently pick the winner, but I think Flowers will get the KO early or Johnson will take over late.
No Bet.
Brad Tavares vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Notes:
- Tavares is 20-8 with 7 wins by finish. Brad was KO in 4 of his 8 losses.
- Rodrigues is 14-5 with 12 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “RoboCop” was KO in 3 of 5 losses.
Analysis:
Gregory Rodrigues is 5-2 in his seven UFC fights with five of the seven ending inside the distance. Brad Tavares is a longtime UFC veteran with a 15-8 record in 23 UFC fights. Now at 36 years old, Tavares has shown himself to be wearing down in his last couple of fights. Rodrigues is a high-level, BJJ blackbelt who prefers to slug it out on the feet moving forward like a zombie. Tavares is not much of a finisher, with only five KO victories of his 20 wins and has not won by KO in over six years and seven opponents ago. I don’t think that Tavares has the power to KO “RoboCop” and think that Rodrigues wins a decisive decision or gets the KO.
I bet on Rodrigues and used him in a parlay.
Robert Bryczek vs. Ihor Potieria
Notes:
- Bryczek is 17-5 with 12 wins by finish, including 11 by KO. Robert was stopped in 2 of his 5 losses.
- Potieria is 19-5 with 15 wins by finish. “The Duelist” was KO in 4 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:
Robert Bryczek will be making his UFC debut riding a five-fight winning streak with all five wins by first round KO. Ihor Potieria is 1-3 in his four UFC fights with all four fights ending by KO in the first two rounds. I smell a VIOLENCE spot! We have a UFC debutant with five straight first round KO’s facing a fighter who has not seen round three in four UFC fights and is dropping down a weight class and missed weight. Potieria has no gas tank and fades fast. Gimme the VIOLENCE!
I bet fight to NOT start Round 3 and used it in a parlay.
Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili
Notes:
- Ige is 17-7 with 10 wins by finish.
- Fili is 23-10 with 13 wins by finish, including 10 by KO. “Touchy” was stopped in 5 of his 10 losses.
Analysis:
I really like both fighters, and this is a great fight. Both fighters are longtime UFC veterans and I expect a scrap. Both fighters have lost three of their last five fights and need a win here. Ige has very crisp boxing with good volume and a sharp jab. Fili will have a four-inch height and a three-inch reach advantage that he will look to use to keep Ige on the outside and use his solid jab and low leg kicks. Both fighters are BJJ blackbelts and can wrestle, making this a very well-matched fight. I like the durability and volume boxing of Ige to be able to close the distance and stay in Fili’s face. I expect a close fight, but think Ige gets the win.
I lean Ige, but not enough to place a bet. Pass, No Bet.
Jack Hermansson vs. Joseph Pyfer
Notes:
- Hermansson is 23-8 with 17 wins by finish. “The Joker” was stopped in 5 of his 8 losses.
- Pyfer is 12-2 with 11 wins by finish, including 8 by KO. “BodyBagz” was stopped in both of his losses.
Analysis:
Jack Hermansson is 10-6 in his 16 UFC fights, but has dropped three of his last 5, including a KO loss his last time out. Joe Pyfer has rocketed to stardom after his Contender Series win, followed by a blistering 3-0 UFC start with all three wins by finish. “BodyBagz” now gets his first opportunity to Main Event, and I think it is a favorable matchup vs. the eight-years-older Hermansson, who has been stopped in five of his eight losses. I don’t think “The Joker” will be able to consistently wrestle Pyfer and take him down, and more importantly, hold him down. Pyfer has a lot of power and is a finisher, with 11 of his 12 wins by finish. I like the ascending vs. descending fighter angle and think Pyfer wins by impressive fashion.
I bet Pyfer and used him in a parlay.
UFC Vegas 86 – Official Bets:
- 4:00: Marcos/Amil parlay +104 (3 to win 3.12 units)
- 5:30: Wells -150 (3 to win 2 units)
- 6:30: Lookboonmee/Clark parlay -107 (3.21 to win 3 units)
- 7:30: Prates & Bryczek/Potieria fight NOT start Round 3 parlay –147 (4.41 to win 3 units)
- 9:00: Rodrigues/Pyfer parlay -104 (3.12 to win 3 units)
