Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:
Today’s UFC Austin event is now a 12-fight card starting at 4:00PM with the prelims airing on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on ESPN. We have six total bets, including a plus money, five-unit bomb! Enjoy the UFC Austin – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord at 2pm EST
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Veronica Hardy vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (women’s)
Notes:
- Hardy has a record of 7-4-1 with 3 wins by finish. Veronica was stopped in 2 of her 4 losses.
- Horth is 6-0 with 5 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Jamey-Lyn Horth is a 6-0, undefeated prospect, who won her UFC debut her last time out. Veronica Hardy returned to action after a three-year layoff and looked great in defeating Ultimate Fighter Season 30 winner, Juliana Miller, via unanimous decision. Horth is the bigger and more physical fighter and will have a three-inch height and a two-inch reach advantage. Hardy has shown questionable cardio in past fights and poor striking defense. Horth fights like a bully, and I believe her physicality will be the difference maker vs. the smaller Hardy. I bet Horth and used her in a parlay.
Wellington Turman vs. Jared Gooden
Notes:
- Turman is 18-7 with 12 wins by finish. Wellington was KO in 2 of his 7 losses.
- Gooden is 22-9 with 17 wins by finish. “Nite Train” was KO in 2 of his 9 losses.
Analysis:
Wellington Turman, although 3-5 during his UFC career, has shown growth and improvement during his four years with the company and trains alongside UFC Champion, Alex Pereira, and former Champion, Glover Texeira. Gooden is on his second stint with the UFC after a previous run of 1-3 prior to his release in 2021. “Nite Train” lost in his return fight and is now 1-4. Turman is a well-rounded fighter with a background in Muay Thai and is a black belt in BJJ. Gooden has power in his strikes with 11 of his 22 wins by KO and will have a five-inch reach advantage. I favor Turman here and believe he can do well in the striking exchanges and is the better grappler, in addition to having better cardio. I bet Turman and used him in a parlay.
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Ihor Potieria
Notes:
- Bellato is 11-2 with 10 wins by finish. “Trator” was KO in both of his losses.
- Potieria is 19-4 with 15 wins by finish. “The Duelist” was KO in 3 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Ihor Potieria should produce splendid violence. Both fighters earned their way in through the Contender Series, with Potieria 1-2 in his three UFC fights vs. Bellato, who will be making his UFC debut. These fighters combine for 30 finishes in their combined 36 fights, with all coming in the 1st or 2nd round. Potieria is not that great anywhere and I think will be overwhelmed by the volume and power of Bellato. “The Duelist” is live for an early KO if he is able to catch Bellato, which I doubt, but “Trator” will have a huge advantage on the ground and can also finish on the feet. I bet Bellato and used him in a parlay.
Joe Solecki vs. Drakkar Klose
Notes:
- Solecki is 13-3 with 9 wins by submission. Joe was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
- Klose is 13-2-1 with 5 wins by KO. Drakkar was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
This is a good fight between two pretty evenly matched fighters with nearly identical records and both on a two-fight winning streak. Drakkar Klose is returning after a 1.5-year layoff and is now 35 years old. Solecki is five years younger and is a very good grappler, with 9 of his 13 wins by submission. Klose is a good striker with power and can also wrestle a bit, which might prove to be the biggest difference-making edge in this fight, as Solecki is not a good wrestler or striker. If Klose can keep this fight standing, he will have a significant edge. Another important note is that Klose has never been submitted, which is the strength of Solecki’s game. This fight is tightly lined at Klose -125, and I like the plus money on Solecki, as I think he will be able to grapple and control Klose and he is live for a submission. I bet Solecki +110, risking 1 to win 1.1 units.
Cody Brundage vs. Zachary Reese
Notes:
- Brundage is 9-5 with 7 wins by finish. Cody was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
- Reese is 6-0 with all 6 wins by 1st round finish. “Savage” is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
Cody Brundage will welcome undefeated Zachary Reese to the Octagon for his UFC debut. Brundage is 3-4 in seven UFC fights and was on a three-fight losing streak, and heading to his fourth in a row until his opponent was disqualified for an illegal elbow strike after dominating Cody in the short-lived action. Reese has a 100% finishing rate with all six wins in the first round and will have a nice size advantage with a four-inch height and a five-inch reach advantage. Brundage is dangerous early, but then fades quick and relies too much on a very low percentage move where he jumps a guillotine and essentially takes himself down, putting himself on his back if the move fails, which it often does. Reese is the ascending fighter, much bigger, hungrier, and more powerful vs. the fading Brundage, who is a notorious quitter. I like the debutant here to get the finish. I bet Reese and used him in a parlay.
Miesha Tate vs. Julia Avila (women’s)
Notes:
- Tate is 19-9 with 11 wins by finish. “Cupcake” was stopped in 5 of her 9 losses.
- Avila is 9-2 with 6 wins by finish. “Raging Panda” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
This is a very hard fight with high variance. Former UFC Champion Miesha Tate is 1-2 after returning from a five-year layoff and has looked to be slowing down and is now 37 years old and last fought 1.5 years ago. Speaking of time off, Julia Avila is returning to action after a 2.5-year layoff and is now 35 years old, making this fight very intriguing and most likely a retirement fight for Tate if she loses. Avila is coming off injuries and giving birth, so there is a hodgepodge of muck to wade through on both sides. Way too complicated with far too many variables for me to confidently put my money on either fighter. Pass, No Bet.
Punahele Soriano vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Notes:
- Soriano is 9-3 with 8 wins by finish, including 6 by KO. “Story Time” was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
- Stoltzfus is 14-5 with 7 wins by finish. Dustin was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:
Punahele Soriano is 3-3 in his six UFC fights and is a powerful striker with a boxing style. “Story Time” has won by KO in his three wins and has only been stopped one time in his career, which was in his last fight, a KO loss to Roman Kopylov. Stoltzfus has underwhelmed during his five-fight UFC career, with only one win and four losses, including being stopped in three of them. Soriano should prevail here and most likely by knockout, however, his cardio is a concern, and he has faded late during fights. I have no faith in Stoltzfus and have seen nothing from him that indicates that he can beat Soriano. I like Soriano here to get the win, most likely by finish, and to send Stoltzfus to the glue factory after given his walking papers. I bet Soriano and used him in a parlay.
Clay Guida vs. Joaquim Silva
Notes:
- Guida is 38-23 with 21 wins by finish. “The Carpenter” was stopped in 13 of his 23 losses.
- Silva is 12-4 with 10 wins by finish. “Netto BJJ” was KO in 3 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:
Clay Carpenter is now 41 years old and has dropped two of his last three fights. With a loss here, it may be time for “The Carpenter” to hang up his tool belt. Joaquim Silva has lost three of his last four fights, which sets this fight up to be a potential “Loser Leaves Town” match. “Netto BJJ” has big power, with seven of his 12 wins by KO, and is also a kill or be killed fighter who has lost three of his four fights by KO. I do not think Guida has the KO power to hurt Silva and unless he just wears Silva down and his cardio fails, I do not think Carpenter will make it to the judges’ scorecards. Silva is a black belt in BJJ and should be a step ahead in all areas of this fight. I bet Silva to win and used him in a parlay.
Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Notes:
- Brady is 15-1 with 7 wins by finish. Sean was KO in his only loss.
- Gastelum is 18-8 with 11 wins by finish. Kelvin was submitted in 2 of his 8 losses.
Analysis:
This is a great fight and a big test for each fighter. Sean Brady lost for the first time in his career last time out via KO to Belal Muhammad and Gastelum is coming off a win, however, he is only 2-5 in hist last seven fights. Brady is a black belt in BJJ with serviceable striking and good wrestling, averaging three takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. Gastelum is a good wrestler, but relies on his striking from a southpaw stance more than his grappling. Although good on the ground, I think Gastelum will want to keep this fight standing, and Brady will want to take it to the ground. I think Gastelum will sting Brady on the feet, but the fight will eventually hit the ground, where Brady should take over. Very close fight and tough to call. I like Brady and think that he gets it done through his wrestling and control time. I bet Brady -115, risking 1.15 to win 1 unit.
Rob Font vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Notes:
- Font is 20-7 with 13 wins by finish. Rob was submitted in 1 of his 7 losses.
- Figueiredo is 21-3-1 with all 17 wins by finish. “Deus da Guerra” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:
Rob Font enters this matchup on a bit of a skid, losing three of his last four fights, vs. Deiveson Figueiredo, who will be fighting someone other than Brandon Moreno for the first time since 2020. The former UFC Champion went 1-2-1 in their four fights. Font is three inches taller and will have a three-inch reach advantage, which works in his favor stylistically, as he is a high-volume, boxing-style striker with a great jab. Figueiredo is dangerous everywhere and will be moving up a weight class to 135 lbs. in this fight. “Deus da Guerra” is a black belt in BJJ and has powerful striking, including very good leg kicks that I can see being a difference maker in this fight. I favor Figueiredo here and am pleasantly surprised that he is the underdog. I bet Figueiredo +115, risking 1 to win 1.15 units.
Jalin Turner vs. Bobby Green
Notes:
- Turner is 13-7 with all 13 wins by finish. “The Tarantula” was KO in 3 of his 7 losses.
- Green is 31-14-1 with 20 of his 31 wins by finish. “King” was stopped in 6 of his 14 losses.
Analysis:
Jalin Turner is a late notice replacement, taking this fight on none days’ notice, vs. Bobby Green, who was originally scheduled to face Dan Hooker. Turner is huge for the division and will have a five-inch height and a six-inch reach advantage vs. Green, which could cause “King” problems, as he is a boxing-style striker. “The Tarantula” is a well-rounded fighter and dangerous everywhere, utilizing big power in his strikes and a slick grappling game to have a 100% finishing rate with all 13 of his wins by finish in the first two rounds. Green has good cardio and is a good wrestler, however, he seldom uses it. This is a tough fight to call, and I don’t like the line with Turner at -200. I am going to pass on a bet here, as I can make an argument for both sides. Pass, No Bet.
Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Notes:
- Dariush is 22-5-1 with 13 wins by finish, including 11 by KO.
- Tsarukyan is 20-3 with 13 wins by finish. “Ahalkalakets” was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:
The Main Event is a fun fight between two fighters with excellent grappling and scrambling abilities. Dariush lost his last time out via first round knockout to former champion, Charles Oliveira. However, prior to that, he was on an eight-fight winning streak. Tsarukyan has won his last two fights and is 7-2 overall in his nine UFC fights. “Ahalkalakets” is very powerful and has 13 of his 20 wins by finish and is an excellent wrestler, averaging four takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. Dariush is sneaky good with his striking from a southpaw stance and has an excellent left power kick that he utilizes to the body of his opponents. Dariush is a world class grappler, but his durability is a concern, having been stopped in all five of his losses. I like Tsarukyan in this matchup due to his power, athleticism, and youth advantage (being seven years younger). I bet Tsarukyan and used him in a parlay.
UFC Austin – Official Bets:
- 4:00: Horth/Silva parlay +103 (2 to win 2.06 units)
- 4:30: Turman/Tsarukyan parlay +103 (2 to win 2.06 units)
- 5:00: Bellato/Reese/Soriano parlay +141 (5 to win 7.06 units)
- 5:30: Solecki +110 (1 to win 1.1 units)
- 8:00: Brady -115 (1.15 to win 1 unit)
- 8:30: Figueiredo +115 (1 to win 1.15 units)
