Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:
Today’s UFC Vegas 82 event is a 14-fight card starting at 2:00PM and airing in its entirety on ESPN+. We have six total bets! Enjoy the UFC Vegas 82 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord at 12:30pm EST
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Charles Johnson vs. Rafael Estevam
Notes:
- Johnson has a record of 13-5 with 9 wins by finish.
- Estevam is 11-0 with 7 wins by finish. “Macapa” is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
2-3 UFC veteran, Charles Johnson, welcomes undefeated Rafael Estevam to the UFC in the opening fight of this stacked UFC Vegas 82 card. Johnson has a long, rangy striking approach, and despite a wrestling background, he has been severely out-grappled in his five UFC fights, however, it was against very strong wrestlers. “InnerG” has good scrambling ability and a good get up game and has consistently been able to work his way back to his feet. Estevam is a Black Belt in BJJ and has good volume striking, including powerful leg kicks to mix in with his grappling. Johnson has never been finished, and although having seven of his 11 wins by finish, “Macapa” has most of those finishes against VERY low-level fighters on the Brazilian regional scene. I like Johnson here to win on the feet and get up from any takedowns that occur. I don’t think that Estevam is going to bring the level skills of guys like Mokaev and Osbourne, who were not able to finish Johnson. I bet Johnson +120, risking 2 to win 2.4 units.
Trey Ogden vs. Nikolas Motta
Notes:
- Ogden is 16-6 with 11 wins by submission. “Samurai Ghost” was submitted in 3 of his 6 losses.
- Motta is 13-5 with 9 wins by KO. “Iron” was stopped in all 5 of his losses.
Analysis:
This is a pure striker vs. grappler matchup with Trey Ogden being the grappler and larger man. “Samurai Ghost” will have a two-inch height and reach advantage vs. Motta, who has shown a 100% takedown defense thus far. However, he was dropped in two of his three UFC fights and his chin is an area of concern. Motta is a powerful striker with nine of his 13 wins by KO and has a brawling style, which does not correlate well with a suspect chin. Ogden has 11 of his 16 wins by submission, but he does not wrestle enough as he should, with submissions being the best part of his game. I cannot trust either fighter here with my money on a bet and will pass. No Bet.
Lucie Pudilova vs. Ailin Perez (women’s)
Notes:
- Pudilova is 14-8 with 5 wins by finish. “Bullet” was submitted in 1 of her 8 losses.
- Perez is 8-2 with 5 wins by finish. “Fiona” was submitted in 1 of her 2 losses.
Analysis:
A low level women’s fight between a 3-6 Pudilova, who is in her second stint in the UFC, vs. Perez, who picked up her first UFC win in her last fight to even her record at 1-1. Pudilova is a middling fighter, not great anywhere and prefers to grapple. Perez is also a grappler, which could lead to an exciting or boring fight, but one that I have less than zero interest in betting on. Perez is my preferred side, but I am not laying -200 on her. Pass, No Bet.
Jeka Saragih vs. Lucas Alexander
Notes:
- Saragih is 13-3 with 12 wins by finish. “Si Tendangan Maut” was stopped in all 3 of his losses.
- Alexander is 8-3 with 3 wins by KO. “The Lion” was submitted in all 3 losses.
Analysis:
Jeka Saragih broke many hearts in the betting and DFS community after dropping his UFC debut via KO and looked lackluster in a spot that was tailor-made for him. Alexander is 1-1 in his two UFC fights and will be the bigger man here with a three-inch height and a four-inch reach advantage. Saragih is a wild puncher with power and lacks in the grappling game. Alexander has a kickboxing background and power as well. These fighters share many similarities as Alexander, like Saragih, is not a good defensive wrestler or grappler. I like Alexander in this matchup, but the line is crazy at -520. I will use Alexander as a parlay sweetener if it adds benefit, but he will not be one of my top bets.
Michael Parkin vs. Caio Machado
Notes:
- Parkin is 7-0 with 6 wins by finish including 5 by KO.
- Machado is 8-1-1 with 6 wins by finish. “Bigfoot” is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
Mick Parkin is undefeated with a 7-0 record and six wins by finish. Parkin won his UFC debut utilizing decent volume in a play it safe mode, which is okay if you get the win. The UFC debut jitters are a real thing and often tough for fighters to overcome. Caio Machado will be making his UFC debut after a decision win on Contender Series in a fight which mirrors the performance mentioned of Parkin. Machado utilized solid volume without taking risk and played it safe. It will be interesting to see how this fight plays out, given their last performances. I favor Parkin here due to better cardio, durability, and level of past opponents, in addition to the fighting attributes of striking and wrestling, which are areas that I also believe Parkin has the edge. I bet Parkin and used him in a parlay.
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Denis Tiuliulin
Notes:
- Duncan is 8-1 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 by KO.
- Tiuliulin 10-8 with 9 wins by KO. Denis was stopped in 6 of his 8 losses.
Analysis:
Denis Tiuliulin accepted this fight as a late notice replacement on Tuesday after Duncan’s original opponent, Cesar Almeida, fell out. Duncan took his first loss in his last fight vs. a very tough Armen Petrosyan and will look to get back on track here in a perfect matchup vs. Tiuliulin, who has been finished in six of his eight losses and has a style tailor-made for Duncan to exploit. Duncan has six of his eight wins by KO and is a powerful striker who also has good speed. Tiuliulin does not have the wrestling and grappling needed to beat Duncan, and in a pure kickboxing match, I favor the seven-years-younger fighter with a one-inch height and a two-inch reach advantage. I expect VIOLENCE in this fight and Duncan to emerge the victor. I bet on Duncan and used him in a parlay.
Chad Anheliger vs. Jose Johnson
Notes:
- Anheliger is 12-6 with 10 wins by finish. “The Monster” was submitted in 5 of his 6 losses.
- Johnson is 15-8 with 10 wins by finish, including 8 by KO. “No Way” was stopped in 5 of his 8 losses.
Analysis:
Jose Johnson will have a huge size advantage here with a six-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage vs. Chad Anheliger, who is the older fighter by nine years. Johnson lost last time out via rarely used, and hard to get, twister submission, only the third in UFC history. “No Way” Jose will surely be looking to avenge that loss and has the perfect matchup to do so. Anheliger is a small, power puncher with seven of his 12 wins by KO and lacks the wrestling needed to take Johnson to the ground, which has shown to be his inefficiency. Johnson will look to keep range and use his size, speed, and power to piece up Anheliger and has decent takedown and offensive submission ability should he want to take the fight down. Johnson has Anheliger covered in all aspects of this matchup and just needs to avoid a big punch, which I foresee him being able to do. I bet Johnson and used him in a parlay.
Jonathan Pearce vs. Joanderson Brito
Notes:
- Pearce is 14-4 with 11 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “JSP” was stopped in 3 of his 4 losses.
- Brito is 15-3-1 with 13 wins by finish. “Tubarao” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:
Jonathan Pearce is 5-1 in the UFC and riding a five-fight winning streak after dropping his UFC debut to Joe Lauzon in 2019. “JSP” fights at a very high pace, utilizing good striking volume to set up his takedowns and averages six per 15 minutes in the Octagon. Brito is 3-1 in the UFC and on a three-fight winning streak after dropping his debut to Bill Algeo. “Tubarao” is very powerful and explosive in all aspects, with big power on the feet and a good submission and wrestling game, averaging over three takedowns per fight with six submissions. Pearce will have a four-inch height advantage, which will come into play here, and I think he can wear on Brito if the fight goes long. Neither of these fighters are very durable, and a combined five of their seven losses have come by stoppage. I like Brito early and Pearce late if neither get an early finish. I think this fight finishes either way, and I am going to bet on VIOLENCE! I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it in a parlay.
Uros Medic vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Notes:
- Orolbai is 11-1 with 10 wins by finish. Myktybek is making his UFC debut.
- Medic is 9-1 with all 9 wins by finish, including 7 by KO. “The Doctor” was submitted in his only loss.
Analysis:
Uros Medic will take on late notice, debuting fighter, Myktybek Orolbai, who took this fight on just four days’ notice. Medic is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with a 100% finishing rate in his 10 career fights. “The Doctor” has finished in all nine wins, including seven by KO and was submitted in his only loss. Orolbai is also a finisher with 10 of his 11 wins by stoppage, and just fought in LFA less than three weeks ago. Myktybek will have the grappling edge in this matchup and is a well-rounded fighter in all aspects of the game. Medic is a very powerful striker with solid leg kicks and suspect cardio, to go along with a poor grappling game. With a full training camp, I might lean Orolbai here, but with the late notice and having fought just three weeks ago is a tough task. I like violence here. With all the things mentioned I don’t think this fight sees the judges’ scorecards. I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it in a parlay.
Luana Pinheiro vs. Amanda Ribas (women’s)
Notes:
- Pinheiro is 11-1 with 7 wins by finish.
- Ribas is 11-4 with 6 wins by finish. Amanda was KO in 3 of her 4 losses.
Analysis:
Two former roommates and black belts in BJJ will square off in what should be a fun matchup. Ribas has lost three of her last five fights and Pinheiro is on a nine-fight winning streak, including a 3-0 run in the UFC. Ribas is a high-volume striker who utilizes a good jab mixed with leg kicks and is solid on the ground. One glaring weakness of Ribas is her durability, as she has been KO in three of her four losses. Pinheiro is a low-volume, but powerful, striker with a Judo style of takedowns, which includes foot sweeps and body locks. Pinheiro has shown herself to tire in fights and cardio may be an issue. We have two fighters here that are familiar to one another, with one having a bad chin and the other poor cardio. This is a VERY tough fight to call for all things considered. I will sit this one out. Pass, No Bet.
Payton Talbott vs. Nick Aguirre
Notes:
- Talbott is 6-0 with 5 wins by KO. Payton is making his UFC debut.
- Aguirre is 7-1 with all 7 wins by finish.
Analysis:
This is a good “show me” spot for both fighters here, with Payton Talbott, the highly-touted, undefeated 6-0 fighter, making his debut vs. Nick Aguirre, who is a tough 7-1 with all wins by finish. Aguirre dropped his UFC debut via unanimous decision his last time out, getting dominated by Dan Argueta. Talbott is a striker who gets stronger as the fight goes on and often walks his opponents down looking for a firefight. Aguirre is a grappler with subpar striking. This is a tailor-made matchup to specifically feature Talbott, as he is being pushed by the UFC. I think Talbott gets the finish here. Aguire won’t have a significant advantage anywhere in this fight and Talbott will dictate the terms of where this fight takes place. Talbott by KO on the feet or ground and pound is the call. I bet Talbott to win inside the distance -110, risking 3.3 to win 3 units.
Chase Hooper vs. Jordan Leavitt
Notes:
- Hooper is 12-3-1 with 9 wins by finish. “The Dream” was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
- Leavitt is 11-2 with all 8 wins by finish, including 6 by submission. “The Monkey King” was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
This fight is a battle of grapplers, with Chase Hooper, who looks comfortable in his new weight class at 155 lbs., coming off a win, vs. “The Monkey King,” Jordan Leavitt, who won his last fight by KO. Hooper has improved striking and looks to close distance to initiate a trip or takedown to drag his opponent to the mat. Leavitt has six of his 11 wins by submission, and although getting a KO in his last fight, he prefers to grapple as well. This fight is a coin toss for me, and I cannot confidently pick a side, leading to a pass. Fun fight to watch, but No Bet.
Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews
Notes:
- Morales is 15-0 with 12 wins by finish, including 11 by KO.
- Matthews is 19-6 with 13 wins by finish. “The Celtic Kid” was stopped in 4 of his 6 losses.
Analysis:
Michael Morales is an undefeated 15-0 phenom with 12 wins by finish. Jake Matthews is a 12-6, 18-fight UFC veteran at only 29 years old and is 2-2 in his last four fights, alternating wins and losses. Morales is a powerful striker with solid wrestling and Matthews is a preferred grappler with a black belt in BJJ. The durability of Matthews concerns me, as “The Celtic Kid” has been finished in four of his six losses. I anticipate Morales to be able to keep this fight on the feet, where I believe he will be able to pick apart Matthews until he eventually puts him away, most likely by KO. I bet on Morales and used him in a parlay.
Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig
Notes:
- Allen is 22-5 with 18 wins by finish, including 13 wins by submission. “All In” was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
- Craig is 17-6-1 with all 17 wins by finish, including 13 by submission. “BearJew” was stopped in 5 of his 6 losses.
Analysis:
This is a fun Main Event with Brendan Allen, who is on a five-fight winning streak with four wins by submission, vs. the always exciting, Paul Craig. “BearJew” won via KO in his last fight and is 5-2 in his last seven UFC fights. Allen has serviceable striking and prefers to get the fight to the ground, where he has 13 wins by submission. “All In” is a black belt in BJJ and uses an aggressive attack to control, then submit, his opponent and excels at taking the back. Craig is always in a fight and has proved it with multiple late wins, including a victory over Magomed Ankalaev when he won with just one second left in the fight after losing the first two rounds and 4:59 seconds of round 3! Allen needs to avoid the tricky submission game of Craig, which I think that he is very capable of doing, and Allen will have the edge in the striking game. I bet Allen and used him in a parlay.
UFC Vegas 82 – Official Bets:
- 2:00: Johnson +120 (2 to win 2.4 units)
- 3:30: Alexander & Pearce/Brito fight ITD -149 (4.45 to win 3 units)
- 4:00: Parkin & Medic/Orolbai fight ITD -121 (3.61 to win 3 units)
- 4:30: Duncan/Johnson parlay -141 (4.21 to win 3 units)
- 7:00: Talbott ITD -110 (3.3 to win 3 units)
- 8:00: Morales/Allen parlay -157 (4.71 to win 3 units)
