Conmann’s 11/11/23 UFC 295 Betting Blueprint

Conmann UFC 295

Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:

Today’s UFC 295 event is a 13-fight card with the prelims starting at 6:00PM on ESPN+ followed by the featured prelims at 8:00 on ESPN News and the Main Card at 10:00PM on PPV. We have seven total bets! Enjoy the UFC 295 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord at 3pm EST

Betting Terms Key:

  • ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
  • Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
  • Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”

Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers

Notes:
  • Buzukja has a record of 11-3 with 5 wins by finish. 
  • Emmers is 19-7 with 10 wins by finish, including 7 by KO. “PrettyBoy” was stopped in 4 of his 7 losses.
Analysis:

We kick off the card with Jamall Emmers, who lost his last fight and is 2-3 his last five UFC fights, vs. Dennis Buzukja, who is looking for his first UFC win after dropping his debut in his last fight via unanimous decision. Emmers has good volume striking and solid leg kicks and has decent wrestling, which he uses opportunistically in matchups and something that I think that he should go to here in this matchup. Buzukja is mainly a kickboxer, but does not have the best striking defense and often gets hit hard. I like the combination of Emmers’ experience, as well as him having the edge in the wrestling department, along with being capable at striking to be too much for Buzukja to handle over the course of three rounds. I bet Emmers and used him in a parlay.

Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas

Notes:
  • Van is 8-1 with 7 wins by finish. “The Fearless” was submitted in his only loss.
  • Borjas is 9-1 with 8 wins by KO. “El Gallo Negro” was submitted in his only loss.
  • Borjas is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:

Joshua Van and Kevin Borjas were destined to be in this position fighting each other, as they were previously scheduled to face off on this year’s Contender Series and then Van was pulled the day before to fight as a late notice replacement for that Saturday’s UFC event vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (that Van won via split decision). Borjas won his Contender Series fight and here we are. These fighters are very similar in size, style, and record. Van is a striker with good power and finishing ability, with seven of his eight wins inside the distance. Borjas is a Karate-style striker and is also a finisher, with eight of his nine wins by KO. Van has fought the better competition and has already experienced the UFC debut jitters and earned a win. Van is the rightful favorite, and it will be too much for Borjas to overcome the previously stated advantages in the favor of Van. I bet Van and used him in a parlay.

John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang

Notes:
  • Castaneda is 20-6 with 14 wins by finish. “Sexi Mexi” was KO in 2 of his 6 losses.
  • Kang is 19-9 with 14 wins by finish, including 12 by submission. “Mr. Perfect” was stopped in 2 of his 9 losses.
Analysis:

This will be a fun fight between two exciting fighters with knockout power and good grappling. Both fighters have a high knockdown rate with Castenada recording a knockdown in each of his last four fights and Kang with one in four of his last six fights. During that same span they combine for three submission victories, showing their well-roundedness. Kang will have a three-inch height and a two-inch reach advantage, which could factor in, although Castaneda is four years younger. Kang is mostly a grappler, averaging two takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon and has 12 of his 19 wins by submission. Castaneda has good power on the feet, and as mentioned, is also a solid grappler. I like Castaneda in this matchup as he is the better striker and will have to avoid the power of Kang, but should be able to excel on the feet and be capable enough on the ground, as he has never been submitted. Castaneda looked bad on the scales, which scares me off a bet on him. I lean Castaneda, but No Bet. 

Jared Gordon vs. Mark O. Madsen

Notes:
  • Gordon is 19-6 with 8 wins by finish. “Flash” was stopped in 5 of his 6 losses.
  • Madsen 12-1 with 6 wins by finish. “The Olympian” was submitted in his only loss.
Analysis:

Jared Gordon is 1-4 his last five fights and will be facing “The Olympian” Mark O. Madsen, who is now 39 years old and coming off his first career loss via submission to Grant Dawson, who is a common opponent to Gordon, who was also submitted by Dawson. Madsen is a Silver Medalist Olympic wrestler and averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. Gordon has good wrestling, but not in comparison to Olympic level. “Flash” is a high-volume striker with little power and questionable durability, as he has been stopped in five of his six losses. I like Madsen here to be able to dictate where the fight takes place with his wrestling edge and think that he will be able to control Gordon for the better part of 15 minutes. At an underdog price of +175, I bet Madsen risking 1 to win 1.75 units.

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

Notes:
  • Sadykhov is 9-1 with 8 wins by finish. “Black Wolf” was submitted in his only loss. 
  • Borshchev is 7-3 with 6 wins by KO.
Analysis:

Nazim Sadykhov is a lefty striker with good power, and he will be facing Viacheslav Borshchev, who is a fellow striker and former kickboxing champion. “Slava” is a counterstriker with big power, but severely lacks in defending takedowns with a below 35% takedown defense and has been taken down 34 times in his five UFC fights, including fights where he was taken down 11 and nine times. Sadykhov, although a striker, has the ability to wrestle and should look to mix in takedowns here often. Borshchev will have the pure striking edge, but Sadykhov is capable there and will be the much better grappler. If Sadykhov is unable to land takedowns, Borshchev could take over on the feet, which scares me off a bet here as I would have to lay -160 on Sadykhov, which I do not want to do. Pass, No Bet.

Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Notes:
  • Rebecki is 18-1 with 15 wins by finish. “Chinczyk” was KO in his only loss.
  • Roberts is 12-3 with 9 wins by finish. “The Predator” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:

Mateusz Rebecki is the biggest favorite on the card, and rightfully so, as the 18-1 “Chinczyk” has 15 of his 18 wins by finish and has looked great during his 2-0 UFC start. Roosevelt Roberts took this fight on late notice last week and will be returning to the Octagon after two wins on the regional circuit after his earlier UFC release in 2021. “The Predator” missed weight and looked pretty haggard on the scale. Roberts is average everywhere and has a boxing style of striking and a suspect takedown defense at just 58%. Rebecki is very well-rounded with knockdown power and utilizes his striking to close distance and get the fight to the ground (where he prefers to be). I don’t think Roberts has anything for Rebecki here and gets steamrolled. I bet Rebecki and used him in a parlay.

Tabatha Ricci vs. Lupita Godinez (women’s)

Notes:
  • Ricci is 9-1 with 4 wins by finish. “Baby Shark” was KO in her only loss. 
  • Godinez is 11-3 with 3 wins by finish.
Analysis:

After dropping her UFC debut, Tabatha Ricci has run off four straight victories and now faces Lupita Godinez, who is on a three-fight winning streak. Ricci is a very good grappler, holding black belts in Judo and BJJ and heavily relies on her grappling as her striking has been nonexistent. “Baby Shark” averages over four takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time and has taken down her opponents over three times each in her wins. Godinez is a high-paced, boxing-style striker, who also has good wrestling, but has a very questionable fight IQ, which has cost her in past fights. “Loopy” will have the edge on the feet, but I think “Baby Shark” will be a step ahead in the grappling. Close fight and tough to call, but I like Ricci to win with her grappling, and at an underdog price, I am willing to make a wager here. I bet Ricci +155, risking 1 to win 1.55 units.

Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa

Notes:
  • Erceg is 10-1 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 by submission. 
  • Costa is 13-3 with 10 wins by finish. “Nono” was KO in 2 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:

Alessandro Costa took this fight on short notice and will look to build on his 1-1 UFC record, as he takes on Steve Erceg, who won his UFC debut in his last fight. Costa is a powerful striker with good leg kicks and a decent grappler, with six of his 13 wins via submission. Erceg is a grappler with six of his 10 wins by submission and has serviceable striking and will have a four-inch height and a one-inch reach advantage in this matchup. I like the durability of Erceg here, and with Costa taking the fight on short notice, I have concern for his gas tank. I like “Astro Boy” to wear out Costa over the course of this fight and get the win. I bet Erceg and used him in a parlay.

Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini

Notes:
  • Lopes is 22-6 with 20 wins by finish, including 12 by submission.  Diego was KO in 2 of his 6 losses.
  • Sabatini is 18-4 with 13 wins by finish, including 11 by submission. Pat was KO in 2 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:

This is such a great fight and one that I am very much looking forward to! Lopes has looked good in his 1-1 UFC start, going the distance with undefeated Movsar Evloev on short notice and winning his last fight by armbar in the first round. Sabatini has also looked good, going 5-1 in his six UFC fights with two submissions. There are a lot of similarities between these two fighters. Both are BJJ black belts and prefer to grapple and lack overall in the striking department. Lopes will have a three-inch height and a two-inch reach advantage. Each fighter was KO twice, which was the only time each has been finished. I like Sabatini to be the stronger top game grappler and think once the fight hits the mat, Sabatini will win the top positions and stay safe from Diego’s submissions off his back and mix in ground and pound. I bet Sabatini -115, risking 2.3 to win 2 units.

Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

Notes:
  • Frevola is 11-3-1 with 7 wins by finish. “The Steamrolla” was KO in 2 of his 3 losses. 
  • St. Denis is 12-1 with all 12 wins by finish.
Analysis:

This is another great fight, as we are treated to two bangers to start this Main Card off. Matt “The Steam Rolla” Frevola has been on a tear, with three first round KO wins in his last three fights, including one here at MSG last November. Saint-Denis is 12-1 with all 12 wins by finish. He’s a tough-as-nails former French special forces soldier, who showed his grit and durability in his only career loss, a beating at the hands of Zaleski Dos Santos that should have been stopped multiple times. Frevola is going to look to knock Benoit’s head into the upper deck and Saint-Denis is going to want to secure a takedown as soon as possible. Saint-Denis has good striking as well, but will have a bigger advantage on the ground. I like Saint-Denis here to strike with Frevola and get takedowns to either use control for a dominant decision or perhaps finish “The Steam Rolla.” I bet Saint-Denis and used him in a parlay.

Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern (women’s)

Notes:
  • Andrade is 24-12 with 17 wins by finish. “Bate Estaca” was stopped in 9 of her 12 losses.
  • Dern is 13-3 with 7 wins by submission.
Analysis:

Former UFC Champion Jessica Andrade has been on a skid as of late, dropping her last three fights, all by stoppage. Two of those fights were late notice replacement fights, but she looked awful, nonetheless. Dern won her last time out and has rotated wins and losses in her last four fights. It is hard to know what to expect from Andrade after such poor showing recently, making this a tough fight to handicap. Dern is a submission specialist and one of the best female Jiu Jitsu practitioners in the world, but lacks in the wrestling department to bring the fight to the ground, where she prefers it to take place. Andrade has been submitted four times and her durability has really worn lately. With Dern as a -220 favorite, it complicates things further, as I do not want to lay that big number, nor do I have any faith in Andrade as an underdog. Pass, No Bet.

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall

Notes:
  • Pavlovich is 18-1 with 15 wins by KO. Sergei was KO in his only loss.
  • Aspinall is 13-3 with all 13 wins by finish, including 10 by KO. Tom was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:

This is a great fight with two finishers who have combined for 28 stoppages in their combined 31 wins, including 27 in the very first round! Pavlovich has the death touch, as his huge power has shut the lights out on many opponents as soon as his fist connects, as shown in his last six fights, all first round KOs vs. some of the toughest UFC heavyweights, including Curtis Blaydes, Derrick Lewis, and Tai Tuivasa. Aspinall is extremely well-rounded with a boxing background and a good grappler with a black belt in BJJ. Aspinall took this fight on less than two weeks’ notice and Pavlovich had a full camp as he was preparing to be the backup fighter in the originally scheduled Main Event between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. I lean Pavlovich, but my favorite bet is VIOLENCE for this fight, and it can be played in many ways, including my favorite bet of under 1.5 rounds. I bet under 1.5 rounds and used it in a parlay. 

Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira

Notes:
  • Prochazka is 29-3-1 with 28 wins by finish, including 25 by KO. “BJP” was stopped all 3 of his losses.
  • Pereira is 8-2 with 6 wins by KO. “Poatan” was stopped in both of his losses.
Analysis:

The Main Event! A strikers delight between two warriors! Alex Pereira is one of the best strikers in the world and is a former Glory kickboxing champion and recent Hall of Fame inductee. The striking prowess translated to MMA for “Poatan,” as he has six of his eight wins by KO. Prochazka is returning after a 1.5-year layoff due to an injury that forced him to vacate his belt, as he was the Champion at the time. Now with current Champion Jamaal Hill sidelined, this fight will be for the Interim Championship. Prochazka is a wild and methodical striker with huge power and has 25 of his 29 wins by KO. Pereira was clipped and finished by KO just two fights ago and needs to be careful here, but Prochazka fights with his hands down and is also ripe to be served by a Pereira left hook. Another fight where I expect VIOLENCE and will bet it as such. I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it in a parlay.

UFC 295 – Official Bets: 

  • 6:00: Emmers/Saint-Denis parlay +103 (2 to win 2.06 units)
  • 6:30: Van & Rebecki parlay -152 (4 to win 2.43 units)
  • 7:30: Madsen +175 (1 to win 1.75 units)
  • 8:30: Rebecki & Aspinall/Pavlovich UNDER 1.5 rounds parlay -150 (3 to win 2 units)
  • 9:00: Ricci +155 (1 to win 1.55 units)
  • 9:30: Erceg & Prochazka/Pereira fight ITD parlay -130 (2.6 to win 2 units)
  • 10:00: Sabatini -115 (2.3 to win 2 units)

Continue Reading: Conmann’s UFC 295 DraftKings Plays

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