Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:
Saturday’s UFC 294 event is a 13-fight card with the prelims starting at 10:00AM, airing on ESPN+, followed by the main card at 2:00PM on PPV. We have six total bets, including our featured five-unit parlay! Enjoy the UFC 294 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Video Breakdown: Conmann’s UFC 294 YouTube Show
Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Bruno Silva
Notes:
- Magomedov has a record of 11-0 with 10 wins by KO. “Shara Bullet” is making his UFC debut.
- Silva is 23-9 with 20 wins by KO. “Blindado” was submitted in 7 of his 9 losses.
Analysis:
The long awaited debut of Sharabutdin Magomedov, an undefeated 11-0 Dagestani prospect, who only has one eye and is an absolute terror both in and out of the cage! “Sharra Bullet” has had multiple run ins on the street, including once at a mall in Dagestan when he got insulted because a man kissed his own girlfriend in public. Bruno Silva is a longtime veteran with big power of his own and has 20 of his 23 wins by KO. “Blindado,” however, has been KO in seven of his nine losses. The kickboxing background of Magomedov, who has power with punches, kicks, knees, and elbows, along with being five years younger and two inches taller, are all edges that go to the debutant. I bet Magomedov and used him as a parlay piece.
Victoria Dudakova vs. Jinh Yu Frey (women’s)
Notes:
- Dudakova is 7-0 with 6 wins by finish.
- Frey is 11-9 with 3 wins by finish. Jinh Yu was stopped in 4 of her 9 losses.
Analysis:
This is a showcase fight for Victoria Dudakova, an undefeated, 24-year-old prospect with six wins by finish, vs. an aging Jinh Yu Frey, who is 14 years older at 38, and on a three-fight losing streak. Dudakova also has a two-inch height and reach advantage. Outside of all that is mentioned, Frey does not have the skillset to deal with Dudakova once this fight hits the ground. I anticipate either a dominant washing of Frey via decision or Dudakova by submission. I will play both. I bet Dudakova to win and used her in a parlay, and also bet Dudakova by submission +390, risking 1 to win 3.9 units.
Nathaniel Wood vs. Muhammadjon Naimov
Notes:
- Wood is 19-5 with 13 wins by finish. “The Prospect” has been stopped in 4 of his 5 losses.
- Naimov is 9-2 with 7 wins by finish.
Analysis:
This is a good fight between two strikers with opposite styles, Wood is a high-volume striker with good leg kicks that he uses behind a stiff jab. Naimov is a powerful striker with five of his nine wins by KO, including his UFC debut, a second round KO of Jamie Mullarkey. However, he relies on a low volume approach. Wood will be the better grappler here and will have the cardio advantage. Aside from Naimov landing a big shot early, which is his most likely path to victory, Wood will take over as the fight goes long. The Naimov KO is very live, as Wood has been KO in two of his five losses, which is a bit to scare me off of using Wood in parlays at -330, but not enough for me to back Naimov. Pass, No Bet.
Mike Breeden vs. Anshul Jubli
Notes:
- Breeden is 10-6 with 8 wins by KO. “Money” has been KO in 3 of his 6 losses.
- Jubli is 7-0 with 3 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Anshul Jubli is an undefeated 7-0 Indian fighter who has faced low-level opponents on the Indian regional MMA scene, and he gets an opponent who is 0-3 in the UFC and now being flown over to Abu Dhabi to face the only Indian fighter on the UFC roster. My business sense tells me that the UFC, and their mega billion dollar parent company of Disney, would love to penetrate the Indian media market and are giving Jubli the best possible matchup to win. All of that sounds great, but the fighters still have to fight. Jubli is decent on the feet and good on the ground and should look to wrestle here early and often, as Breeden, although winless in the UFC, does have some power, with eight of his 10 wins by KO. Jubli has looked good from what I have seen so far, but I can’t lay -290 on him just yet. I think Jubli wins, but No Bet.
Abu Azaitar vs. Sedriques Dumas
Notes:
- Azaitar is 14-3-1 with 8 wins by finish. “Captain Morocco” was KO in 2 of his 3 losses.
- Dumas is 8-1 with 6 fights ending by finish. “The Reaper” was submitted in his only loss.
Analysis:
Interesting pairing here with Abu Azaitar, who has not fought in almost three years and is now 37 years old, fresh off a third round KO when we saw him last. Azaitar is also coming off a USADA suspension. Sedriques Dumas is nine years younger with a five-inch height and a three-inch reach advantage, and is a very dangerous striker, especially with his kicks to the head. Azaitar has/had good power and I find this to be an odd matchup with Azaitar, who is the A-side in Abu Dhabi paired vs. such a dangerous fighter. Dumas is a rightful favorite at -250, but something smells fishy to me here about the “why” this fight was matched. Pass, No Bet.
Javid Basharat vs. Victor Henry
Notes:
- Basharat is 14-0 with 11 wins by finish.
- Henry is 23-6 with 14 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Javid Basharat is a top prospect at 14-0 and needs to be taken very seriously, as he is now 3-0 in the UFC and is very well-rounded everywhere the fight takes place. “The Snow Leopard” will face Victor Henry, a longtime veteran of the sport who is very durable and has never been finished in his 29 career MMA fights. I think that Henry is just outgunned here anywhere this fight takes place, as Basharat will have the cardio and grappling edge, and although both fighters strike at high volume, Henry is much more easily hittable, whereas I see good striking defense from Basharat. I do think that the line is very high with Basharat at -600, and Henry will have his moments, but as mentioned, I think Javid has him covered everywhere, specifically once on the ground with his control. I bet Basharat and used him as a parlay piece.
Mohammad Yahya vs. Trevor Peek
Notes:
- Yahya is 12-3 with 9 wins by finish. Mohammad was stopped in all 3 of his losses.
- Peek is 8-1 with all 8 wins by KO.
Analysis:
Trevor Peek is a madman who throws every strike 100% with bad intentions and also has a head like a cinderblock and is very hard to put away. Mohammad Yahya is making his UFC debut in front of a home crowd and is the former UAE Warriors Champion. Yahya is an average striker with good wrestling and will have to go through hell vs. Peek to get his hands on him and I think that is going to be a big problem, since he does not have the power to exchange with Peek to earn his respect. I am not impressed with the caliber of fighter that Yahya has thus faced and think that Peek rinses him with a violent KO. I bet on Peek -170, risking 1.7 to win 1 unit.
Tim Elliott vs. Muhammad Mokaev
Notes:
- Elliott is 19-12-1 with 9 wins by finish. Tim was stopped in 6 of his 12 losses.
- Mokaev is 10-0 with 7 wins by finish.
Analysis:
The featured prelim is an exciting matchup between two excellent grapplers with plus scrambling ability. I don’t think any time will be wasted getting this fight to the floor, as Mokaev averages 7.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon and Elliott just under four. Elliott is the much more experienced fighter, but Mokaev is 14 years younger and much fresher for the wear. Elliott has been finished in six of his 12 losses and has recently been dealing with personal issues outside of the cage, where his best friend and teammate banged his wife on their wedding night. Crazy stuff. I think Mokaev mauls him. I bet Mokaev and used him as a parlay piece.
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov
Notes:
- Nurmagomedov is 17-3 with 9 wins by finish.
- Gafurov is 18-5 with 17 wins by finish.
Analysis:
The Main Card kicks off with Muin Gafurov, a fighter from Tajikistan who dropped his UFC debut, vs. Said Nurmagomedov, who is 6-2 in his eight-fight UFC career. Gafurov has decent power in his strikes and is a Combat Sambo Champion that did not wow me in his UFC debut, an unanimous decision loss. Nurmagomedov will be the best fighter that he has faced and is a step up off a loss. Nurmagomedov is a dynamic striker with power and lethal spinning kicks and elbows to compliment a very good front headlock series, which includes a nasty guillotine. Gafurov has given his neck before and Nurmagomedov might just snatch it up. Otherwise, I expect a dominant win. I bet Nurmagomedov and used him as a parlay piece.
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Warlley Alves
Notes:
- Aliskerov is 14-1 with 10 wins by finish. Ikram was KO in his only loss.
- Alves is 14-6 with 10 wins by finish. Warlley was stopped in 3 of his 6 losses.
Analysis:
Warlley Alves is taking this fight on short notice, up a weight class and on a two-fight losing streak, vs. a monster in Ikram Aliskerov, who is 14-1 with his only career loss to Khamzat Chimaev early in his career. Ikram is very dangerous everywhere and has five wins by KO and five wins by submission, including first round finishes in his UFC debut and on the Contender Series. Alves is notorious for gassing out if the fight goes long and I do not see an area that he is better than Aliskerov, who has him covered everywhere, including being younger, taller, and having a four-inch reach advantage. I think Aliskerov gets the finish, but we don’t save much by laying -300 for the ITD win vs. the money line. I bet Aliskerov and used him in a parlay.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
Notes:
- Ankalaev is 17-1-1 with 9 wins by KO. Magomed was submitted in his only loss.
- Walker is 21-7 with 19 wins by finish, including 16 by KO. Johnny was stopped in 5 of his 7 losses.
Analysis:
Johnny Walker is a very exciting fighter and Magomed Ankalaev is a boring fighter, although a very skillful one. Ankalaev is a big man at 6’3″, but Walker is HUGE at 6’6″ and he will also have a seven-inch reach advantage. Ankalaev is a very low-volume fighter in both striking and wrestling and that is always a scare when fights come down to the judges. Walker is the less technical fighter, but is very explosive and has very good leg kicks, which we saw frustrate Ankalaev in past fights, including his last which was a split draw vs. former Champion, Jan Blachowicz. Walker has been KO in four of his seven losses and I anticipate Ankalaev to be a bit more urgent with his volume and movement forward in this fight to close the distance to avoid the leg kicks, which in part will result in him landing a big shot on the chin of Walker or getting the takedown. Ankalaev seldom gets takedowns, but will be very effective to do so in this matchup. I think Ankalaev gets it done. I bet Ankalaev and used him as a parlay piece.
Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Notes:
- Usman is 20-3 with 10 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “The Nigerian Nightmare” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
- Chimaev is 12-0 with 11 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Former UFC Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman is taking this fight on short notice and up a weight class at 185 lbs. vs. 12-0, undefeated phenom, Khazmat Chimaev, which is a very tall task. Usman is now 36 years old and off consecutive losses to Leon Edwards and has been dealing with two bad knees. Not a great recipe for dealing with “Borz,” who has 11 of his 12 wins by finish, including all in rounds 1 or 2. Chimaev is a powerful striker and an exceptional wrestler with a blend of body lock takedowns and traditional shots. Usman has good power and great wrestling as well, but the age, size, and health all factor in greatly. All of those edges baked together, along with the late notice, up a class, in Abu Dhabi, have me loving Chimaev here to get a dominant victory, most likely by finish. I bet Chimaev and used him in my featured parlay.
Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski
Notes:
- Makhachev is 24-1 with 15 wins by finish, including 11 by submission. Islam was KO in his only loss.
- Volkanovski is 26-2 with 16 wins by finish, including 13 by KO. “The Great” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
The Main Event! A rematch from an earlier Makhachev victory that was a great fight in which each fighter had their moments that Islam won via unanimous decision. This is a tricky spot for both fighters, as Volkanovski took this fight on short notice and is free rolling pressure free and getting a big pay day! That can work as a double-edged sword, as fighting such a tough opponent that already defeated you is tough enough, let alone doing it on short notice makes it even more difficult. However, Volk can fight looser and more aggressively with nothing to lose and major upside. The flipside is Islam is now bigger, stronger, and a more skilled fighter than the first go round, who was already in camp for a five-round main event in Abu Dhabi and Volk was out of camp and just had a baby. It’s tough emotionally to switch from fatherly joy to war mindset. Islam makes it look easier this time than last. I bet Makhachev and used him in my featured parlay!
Conmann’s UFC 294 – Official Bets:
- 10:00: Magomedov/Nurmagomedov parlay -127 (3 to win 2.38 units)
- 10:30: Dudakova/Basharat/Ankalaev parlay -125 (3 to win 2.41 units)
- 10:30: Dudakova by submission +390 (1 to win 3.9 units)
- 1:00: Peek -170 (1.7 to win 1 unit)
- 1:30: Mokaev/Aliskerov ITD parlay -143 (4.29 to win 3 units)
- 3:30: Chimaev/Makhachev parlay -122 (5 to win 4.12 units)
