Conmann’s 10/14/23 UFC Vegas 81 Betting Blueprint

Conmann22's UFC DFS Blueprint

Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:

Today’s UFC Vegas 81 event is now an 11-fight card starting at 4:00PM, airing in its entirety on ESPN+. Very light betting card today. There won’t be a voice chat today, so tag me (@Conmann22) in Discord if you have questions and I’ll try to get to them. We have three total bets! Enjoy the UFC Vegas 81 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

Betting Terms Key:

  • ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
  • Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
  • Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”

Ashley Yoder vs. Emily Ducote (women’s)

Notes:
  • Yoder has a record of 8-8 with 4 wins by submission.
  • Ducote is 12-8 with 7 wins by finish. “Gordinha” was submitted in 1 of her 8 losses.
Analysis:

To kick off the card we have a VERY low-level women’s fight between Ashley Yoder, who is returning from a two-year layoff, and Emily Ducote. Yoder is on a two-fight losing streak and is 8-8 overall and Ducote, also on a two-fight losing streak, barely has a better career record at 12-8. Astonishingly, Ducote is a -390 favorite. Trash all around. I am absolutely not betting this atrocity. Pass, No Bet.

Chris Gutierrez vs. Heili Alateng

Notes:
  • Gutierrez is 19-5-2 with 10 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “El Guapo” was submitted in 1 of his 5 losses.
  • Alateng is 16-8-2 with 8 wins by finish. “The Mongolian Knight” was stopped in 4 of his 8 losses.
Analysis:

Chris Gutierrez is coming off his first loss since 2018 and has a good matchup here vs. Heili Alateng to get back on track. Gutierrez is a very good kickboxer with technical striking, including very hard leg kicks. Alateng is a powerful, but low volume, striker with decent wrestling. I expect Gutierrez to be able to control the distance in this matchup and use his technical striking to pick apart Alateng en route to a decision victory. I bet Gutierrez and used him as a parlay piece.

Irina Alekseeva vs. Melissa Dixon (women’s)

Notes:
  • Alekseeva is 5-1 with 3 wins by finish.
  • Dixon is 5-0 with 3 wins by KO. “No Mess” is making her UFC debut.
Analysis:

Another women’s fight between low-level fighters that I have no interest in betting. Irina Alekseeva won her UFC debut and will now be welcoming Melissa Dixon to the Octagon, as she makes her UFC debut. Dixon is a 5-0 undefeated prospect from England with limited striking and a good ground game. Alekseeva is a brawler with questionable cardio. No interest here for me to risk my money. Pass, No Bet.

Terrance McKinney vs. Brendon Marotte

Notes:
  • McKinney is 14-6 with all 20 fights ending by finish.
  • Marotte 8-1 with 6 wins by finish. “The Kid” is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:

Terrance McKinney has a 100% finish rate in his 20 career fights and is the epitome of a kill-or-be-killed fighter! “Twrecks,” a seven-fight UFC veteran, is getting a matchup vs. a UFC debutant in Brendon Marotte and is instilled as a -500 favorite. Marotte is taking this fight as a late notice replacement and is a powerful striker, which really sets the stage here for a Violence spot. I think McKinney is going to overwhelm the newcomer and get him out of there early. I bet McKinney ITD and used it as a parlay piece.

Tainara Lisboa vs. Ravena Oliveira (women’s)

Notes:
  • Lisboa is 6-2 with all 6 wins by finish. “Thai Panther” was submitted in 1 of her 2 losses.
  • Oliveira is 7-1-1 with all 8 fights ending by finish. “Kenoudy” is making her UFC debut.
Analysis:

We now have our third low-level women’s MMA fight out of the first five fights on this card, and another spot that I will be fading. Tainara Lisboa is coming off her UFC debut, which was a submission victory, and she will take on Ravena Oliveira, who is making her UFC debut. Lisboa is a -400 favorite here and this fight will be another one that I will not risk my money on. Pass, No Bet.

Darren Elkins vs. TJ Brown

Notes:
  • Elkins is 27-11 with 14 wins by finish. “The Damage” was stopped in 5 of his 11 losses.
  • Brown is 17-10 with 14 wins by finish, including 10 by submission. “Downtown” was stopped in 7 of his 10 losses.

Analysis:

Both fighters have lost two of their last three fights and need a win here in order to see another fight in the UFC. The clock is ticking for both fighters, especially Darren Elkins, who is now 39 years old. TJ Brown is a decent striker with good leg kicks, but has poor striking defense and durability issues, having been finished in seven of his 10 losses. “Downtown” is a good wrestler, averaging 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. Elkins is also a strong grappler and averages three takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, making this fight most likely to hit the mat sooner than later. “The Damage” has a brawling style on the feet, and much like Brown, he doesn’t have good striking defense. I can’t trust either fighter here and will pass on a bet. No Bet. 

Christian Rodriguez vs. Cameron Saaiman

Notes:
  • Rodriguez is 9-1 with 7 wins by finish.
  • Saaiman is 9-0 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 by KO.
Analysis:

Christian Rodriguez ended the Raul Rosas Jr. hype train in his last fight, administering a beating on the one dimensional young man. Rodriguez has now looked very good in his three UFC fights, only losing up a weight class as a late notice replacement when he made his UFC debut. Rodriguez grossly missed weight here, weighing in four pounds heavy, at 140 lbs. Cameron Saaiman is a 9-0 undefeated prospect fighting out of South Africa and is a powerful striker, with six of his nine wins by KO. Saaiman has good cardio, decent wrestling, and although he has good power in his striking, he is very hittable and a bit wild when exchanging. Rodriguez is a low-volume striker and has good takedown defense. This is an intriguing fight and a good test for Saaiman. At an underdog price, I am willing to bet on Saaiman to get the win due to his volume and cardio. I bet Saaiman +135, risking 1 to win 1.35 units.

Andre Petroski vs. Michel Pereira

Notes:
  • Petroski is 10-1 with 8 wins by finish. Andre was KO in his only loss.
  • Pereira is 28-11 with 17 wins by finish. “Demolidor” was stopped in 2 of his 11 losses.
Analysis:

This is a great matchup between a striker vs. grappler and an interesting clash of styles. Petroski has been scorching hot during his 5-0 UFC run thus far, which includes three wins by finish. Pereira is on five-fight UFC winning streak and has looked sharp, using great movement and sniper-like strikes. Petroski, the grappler in this matchup, averages 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time and Pereira has a 94% takedown defense. If Petroski can’t get the fight to the ground, Pereira will be able to pick him apart with his strikes using his speed and movement. A deciding factor here for me leaning towards Pereira is that Petroski took this fight on late notice and has shown to have cardio problems late in fights. I lean Pereira, but can’t lay -210 on him. Pass, No Bet. 

Jonathan Martinez vs. Adrian Yanez

Notes:
  • Martinez is 18-4 with 10 wins by finish. “Dragon” was KO in 1 of his 4 losses.
  • Yanez is 16-4 with 12 wins by finish. Adrian was KO in 1 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:

Jonathan Martinez is a technical kickboxer with some of the best leg kicks in the UFC. “Dragon” is at his best when he is able to control range and use his kicks and punches in combination to punish his opponents. Where he struggles is when his opponents close the distance and get inside of him, taking away the leg kicks, and either get a takedown or land a big punch, as Martinez has shown to be a bit “chinny.” Yanez is coming off his first-ever loss by finish, which also snapped a nine-fight winning streak. Yanez is a very well-rounded fighter with a black belt in BJJ and is a technical, boxing-style striker with fast punches and good footwork. This is another very tough fight to pick a winner in and is tightly lined at -110 both ways. This is one that I will enjoy watching. No Bet. 

Jennifer Maia vs. Viviane Araujo (women’s)

Notes:
  • Maia is 21-9-1 with 9 wins by finish. Jennifer was stopped in 2 of her 9 losses.
  • Araujo is 11-5 with 7 wins by finish. “Vivi” was KO in 1 of her 5 losses.
Analysis:

Jennifer Maia enters on a two-fight winning streak and is a low-output, boxing-style striker with poor takedown defense and needs to keep fights standing. Araujo has lost her last two fights, although vs. top of the division fighters, including Champion Alexa Grasso, which went the full five rounds. “Vivi” is a powerful striker with good wrestling and submissions and is a black belt in BJJ. Maia will look to keep the fight standing and Araujo can compete in all areas, but will have her biggest edge on the ground. I lean Araujo, but have to abstain from these coin-flip women’s fights, so I will pass. No Bet.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza

Notes:
  • Yusuff is 13-2 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 by KO. “Super” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
  • Barboza is 23-11 with 15 wins by finish, including 14 by KO. Edson was stopped in 6 of his 11 losses.
Analysis:

Fun main event between 2 exciting fighters! Sodiq Yusuff is 6-1 in his seven UFC fights and is a high-volume, boxing-style striker with big power, who utilizes a good jab that sets everything up. Barboza has fought the who’s who throughout his career and most recently is 3-2 vs. top of the division fighters. Barboza is notorious for his deadly striking, specifically his kicks that come from all angles (spinning, jumping, flying, and standing)! Edson has big power and has 14 of his 23 wins by KO. Yusuff will have the wrestling edge and should try to take the fight to the ground, where he will have his biggest edge. While on the feet, Barboza will want to keep distance and Yusuff should look to close the distance to land a big punch that Barboza has shown susceptibility to. I like Barboza as a dog here. This is a big step up in competition for Yusuff and he needs to get through Barboza, who is a very tough test, and do so as a favorite. I bet Barboza +145, risking 1 to win 1.45 units. 

Conmann’s UFC Vegas 81 – Official Bets:

  • 4:30: Gutierrez/McKinney ITD parlay -147 (4.4 to win 3 units)
  • 7:00: Saaiman +135 (1 to win 1.35 units)
  • 9:00: Barbosa +145 (1 to win 1.45 units)

Continue Reading: Conmann’s UFC Vegas 81 DraftKings Plays

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