ABER’s MLB Daily Fantasy Plays – 9/16/23

ABER's MLB Daily Fantasy Plays

What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle! 

DraftKings Chalk Stack Of The Day

DraftKings

DraftKings: San Francisco Giants vs. Kyle Freeland (LH)

FanDuel does not have the Coors game, which is drastically swaying ownership from one site to the other. On DraftKings, the Giants are absolutely dominating ownership and I don’t love it. As most of you know, I do not play on DK, so I will not be invested in this fade, but I don’t like picking on Kyle Freeland. He’s not good by any means, but he’s not the worst. Over the last 30 days, the Giants are bottom 10 in every major category in the split and they lead the league in K rate. Sure it’s Coors and one chalk dong could hurt, but this team stinks. 

FanDuel: Minnesota Twins vs. Touki Toussaint (RH)

The Twins have been scorching hot lately and we have actually been ahead of the curve on that. Touki has been bad against lefties all year and the Twins have a handful of good ones that hit extremely well in the split. Not to even mention, Royce Lewis has been one of the hottest hitters in all of baseball. Given they’re not chalk on DraftKings, they would come in as my top stack over there. On FanDuel, I’m going to play them in one lineup and fade them the rest of the way. My favorites in order are Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Edouard Julian, and Alex Kirilloff.

Top Stacks Of The Day

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miles Mikolas (RH)

I literally have no idea how the Phillies aren’t pulling more ownership tonight and why they’re not the chalk instead of the Twins, but I love it. The Phillies have fallen back behind the Braves as the top offense in the split over the last 30 days. Mikolas is the perfect kind of pitcher the Phillies crush with his 15% K rate. Every single time in these spots I say it, you can not pitch to the barrel of Schwarber’s bat. My favorite plays in order are Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Bryson Stott, but 1-9 is firmly in play for me.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Tylor Megill (RH)

The Reds have been one of the most strikeout-happy teams in the league over the last two months, but that’s against pitchers who have strikeout ability. They still carry tons of upside against pitchers who can’t miss their bats. I think this could be one of those spots with Megill only missing bats 20% of the time. I can also see a path where Megill has himself a game, which we will touch on below. My favorites in order are Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Nick Martini, and Will Benson. By all means, if you want to pay for Elly, it’s fine.

Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day

Pablo Lopez (RH) vs. Chicago White Sox

The price tag is super steep here and it’s going to be tough for me to get here, but he’s definitely the best option amongst the high end pitchers. The White Sox are just an above average matchup across the board and they struggle to generate any offense.

Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day

Tylor Megill (RH) vs. Cincinnati Reds

Pitching is rough out there today and I’m so torn on this spot for Megill. The Reds are not a bad offense and they can blow people up, but they lack discipline, which leads to a lot of strikeouts, but Megill is not really that electric. If you’re not playing Megill, then you’re leaning into a bad matchup or a team that doesn’t strike out, which limits the upside. Something has to give here, but given the uncertainty, I’m probably going to lean into a Megill lineup and then play some Reds in another.

Top Value Pitcher Of The Day

Sawyer Gipson-Long (RH) vs. Los Angeles Angels

We are way past the white flag days for the Angels. They are an absolute abomination and will be a primary target for the remainder of the year. Over the last 30 days, they are the second worst offense with the sixth highest K rate in the split. Sawyer was relatively good in his first major league start, but what’s more enticing is, in AAA this year over 34 innings pitched he had a 32.7% K rate. He’s clearly got the ability to miss some bats and he’s my favorite per dollar play of the entire night.

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