What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle!
UPDATE: 10/7 9:15am – Replacing value pitcher with Kelly.
Top Stacks Of The Day
Houston Astros vs. Bailey Ober (RH)
I’m not really sure what the Twins are doing starting Ober in Game 1 when Ryan is ready to go, but we are very grateful because I’m not sure Ober is ready for the big show. His surface numbers have been pretty good all year and he misses bats at a great rate, but the Astros don’t strike out much. The Astros should make tons of contact today, which is not good for Ober’s 49% flyball rate. Over the last 30 days, the Astros have the second-lowest K rate in the split and are top five in every major category. Ober is throwing just over 30 and 20% changeups to lefties and righties, which we can use for both sides of the plate, but he’s also throwing a slider over 35% of the time against righties. Against right handed changeups, Yainer Diaz and Yordan Alvarez tower over everyone else, with both guys being over a .530 xwOBA and ISO. Against the slider, Yainer Diaz is the best right handed bat against the pitch, which pretty easily makes him my top overall play from the team. My favorites in order are Yainer Diaz, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Mauricio Dubon.
Texas Rangers vs. Kyle Bradish (RH)
This spot for me isn’t really a great spot for the Rangers because Bradish has been very good and his underlying numbers support it. It’s really just because the Rangers are just that good. Over the last 30 days, they have the league’s best ISO in the split and rank in the top five across the board. The story of the Rangers’ offense has been how Corey Seager could be the league’s best hitter and what people don’t realize is that Evan Carter has been better than him in the split against right handed pitching with a .499 wOBA and a .404 ISO. Bradish is throwing his slider more than any other pitch to both sides of the plate, so that’s where we will lean heavy. Seager is at the top of the list with a .375 xwOBA and .265 ISO. I sort of segwayed right into this, but the guy behind him is Evan Carter with a .342 wOBA and a wild .571 ISO. My favorite plays in order are Corey Seager, Evan Carter, Adolis Garcia, and Nate Lowe.
Favorite One-Off Hitters
- Christian Walker
- Max Muncy
- Matt Wallner
Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day
Spencer Strider (RH) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
This is a VERY tough day for pitching, but a great day of baseball, with a handful of studs on the mound. The talent is not the issue with a handful of bonafide aces on the mound. This is not a series I’m really looking to use any pitchers, with two of the best offenses in the league, but the matchups don’t get any better and Strider can obviously strike out anyone. I don’t think he comes out of this start without giving up a run or two and that’s tough to swallow at his current price tag, but I do believe he has the highest ceiling of the day.
Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day
Justin Verlander (RH) vs. Minnesota Twins
As we all know, I am heavily rooting for the Twins, but I am not one to get lost in the sauce. The matchup here isn’t great, but neither is anyone else. The experience is there and the price tag is great. I, unfortunately, believe this game is the one the Astros take, which puts him in line for the win.
Top Value Pitcher Of The Day
Merrill Kelly (RH) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
It is rough out there on the value side of pitching today and I don’t really have much to support the idea that anything makes sense down here. You’re either playing Heaney because he’s the cheapest of the day or you’re picking on one of the best offenses in the league. I am opting to pick on one of the best offenses in the league because Kelly is the best pitcher of this bunch. Kelly is one of the more underrated pitchers in the league, who’s been pretty solid to both sides of the plate with a .301 woba vs. lefties and a .288 vs. righties. His K rates sit around 25%, which is above average, and he’s inducing more ground balls than fly balls. There’s nothing Kelly does that you can use against him, it’s just the matchup is as bad as it gets. I also think the Diamondbacks have a good shot at getting to Kershaw today, which gives him the opportunity to get the win.
Like always, I will be in Discord (@Aber) before lock to answer all your lineup questions and help us GAPE.