ABER’s Daily MLB DraftKings Plays – 9/7/23

ABER's MLB Daily Fantasy Plays

What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle! 

Chalk Stack Of The Day

Atlanta Braves vs. Adam Wainwright (RH)

I opened up today’s slate to see the matchups and the moment I got to this one, I immediately bounced my head off the keyboard. How many is too many fantasy points tonight? You never really go into a baseball game thinking double-digit runs is likely, but tonight we expect that. They’re soooooo chalky tonight and I think it’s a death wish fading them. The entire team is going to see double-digit ownership, which is quite literally insane and I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before. Even more in depth, on FanDuel the entire team is going to likely be over 20%. Fading them is not the most logical thing, but because they’re so chalky, I definitely encourage you to make an extra lineup in a large field tournament and fade them. IF somehow Waino can salvage a halfway decent game, then you are going to be soooooo far ahead of the field. Other than that, let’s go Braves. At the top for me would be Travis d’Arnaud if he makes the lineup. After that it’s Austin Riley and Matt Olson.

Top Stacks Of The Day

Chicago Cubs vs. Ryne Nelson (RH)

Now that the wind is gone no one wants to play the Cubs in a nut matchup? It wasn’t too long ago we were talking about how the Cubs were the #1 offense in the split. Ryne’s surface and underlying numbers are terrible with a .350+ woba to both sides of the plate with a 15% K rate. He’s giving up more fly balls than ground balls and his hard hit rate is nearing 40% against the right handed bats. My favorites in order are Christopher Morel, Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki.

New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

I want to touch on both of these teams together because they’re in the best environment on the slate and I will have exposure to both teams in different ways. Starting with the Yankees, they get a tough matchup against Eduardo, but they have been pretty good as the third-best offense in the split over the last 30 days. My favorites for them are Aaron Judge, Jasson Dominguez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres. As for the Tigers, it’s a pure leverage play for me. Ideally, I’m not typically using “bad” offenses against bad pitchers, but I’m making an exception tonight. The Tigers have been brutal in this split, but Rodon is going to be the stone chalk tonight and he has been terrible. He is missing bats at a decent rate, so he can easily get it done here, but any contact could be bad given his 60% fly ball rate. Not only that, but his hard hit rate is over 40%, which is why his HR/9 is almost at three. This is a total wild card for me, and given the location of the game, I’m definitely in to get some leverage against a chalky pitcher who has been really bad. My favorites in order are Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, Spencer Torkelson, and Jake Rogers.

Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day

Griffin Canning (RH) vs. Cleveland Guardians

Pitching is an absolute disaster tonight, especially on the high end. This isn’t even a great spot for Canning, but it’s better than everyone else. Cleveland is bottom 10 in K rate, but they are also bottom five overall. Quite frankly, there is not a ton of upside in this matchup, but there’s not really upside anywhere else on the slate. I would be surprised if we seen any high K totals when the night concludes, so we’re looking for the guy that can chew up innings and not get blown up. It’s tough not to imagine Canning as the safest play of the night.

Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day

Javier Assad (RH) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

This is one I never thought I would see myself writing up, but here we are. The D-backs were one of the best teams in the split to start the year, and over the last 30 days, they have fallen to middle of the pack in every major category. Assad is far from exciting with his underwhelming 19% K rate, but he’s pitched very well, especially over his last couple games. He’s limited most of the hard contact and doesn’t give up very many fly balls and the wind is violently blowing in tonight. There’s also a chance that Carroll is not in the lineup after being removed from last night’s game, even though reports state he will be good to go tonight. It’s uneasy, uncomfortable, and doesn’t feel safe, but it’s not as bad as it may seem.

Top Value Pitcher Of The Day

Carlos Rodon (LH) vs. Detroit Tigers

We’re going to round out tonight’s gas cans with Rodon, who I believe has the most upside of the night, and so does everyone else. He’s getting what is likely the best matchup of the day, but he has also been absolutely atrocious this year and he’s pitching at home, which is the worst environment of the night. I didn’t put him here to talk bad about him though, seeing as I already did that and I would be playing him in single entry tonight, but the moment you make a second lineup, it should have some Tigers exposure. Moving onto the good stuff, which is how bad the Tigers have been in the split. This is definitely the side to pick on them, with the fifth-highest K rate and the third-worst offense over the last 30 days. I’m not sure that I’m ready to accept that Carlos Rodon just isn’t good anymore and we know who he used to be, so it’s not a long shot to say he could be the highest scoring pitcher of the night.

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