What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle!
Chalk Stack Of The Day
New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin (RH)
Corbin has not been a target as much as I had thought he was going to be this year because he hasn’t been the worst. Tonight, the BVP truthers are obviously driving the ownership because I don’t understand this chalk. Corbin is not that bad and the Mets are not that good. The only positive to come out of this matchup is the amount of times these guys have seen Corbin in their careers and Alonso leads the BVP train today and I don’t care. This is a fade for me given the other options on the slate, and if you want to eat some chalk for safety, (Editor’s Note: eating chalk for safety is not approved by the FDA!) Pete Alonso is really the only one that can hurt us here. After him, I’m intrigued by the lefty on lefty matchup for DJ Stewart.
Top Stacks Of The Day
Atlanta Braves vs. Miles Mikolas (RH)
Scheduled portion of the article. Of course they look good tonight against a soft throwing pitcher that tops out at 93 MPH. This would be my primary stack if you’re only playing one lineup. I know they’re a little more expensive, but there upside is far beyond anything the Mets have to offer for less ownership. As usual, stack them up anyway you can, but my two favorites are Matt Olson and Austin Riley.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pedro Avila (RH)
Pedro has been pretty good this year in a 30-inning sample, but I’m not really buying it. He’s been pitching through the minors and MLB for eight years and has never been this good, which tells me there has to be some regression somewhere. Tonight he’s facing the league’s #1 offense in the split over the last 30 days. My favorites in order are Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, and Kyle Schwarber.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Ken Waldichuk (LH)
Waldichuk has slowly improved throughout the year, but so has the Blue Jays, who have cracked the top five in the split over the last 30 days. They’re also striking out at one of the lowest rates, so there will be tons of balls in play here. My favorite plays in order are Davis Schneider, Vlad Guerrero, Alejandro Kirk, and Ernie Clement.
Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day
Chris Bassitt (RH) vs. Oakland Athletics
Pitching is tough tonight and nothing feels really great, so everything is going to feel a little uncomfortable. Gerrit Cole has the best matchup, but it’s a back to back start and he’s extremely expensive, which is why I’m taking a stand in the salary relief with Bassitt. His kryptonite is lefties and quite frankly the lefties in this lineup aren’t very good. Over the last 30 days, Oakland is just middle of the pack across the board in the split, so it’s not the best spot, but it feels extremely safe at his price point if you’re trying to spend up.
Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day
Brady Singer (RH) vs. Chicago White Sox
This is immediately uncomfortable for me because I’ve never been a Singer fan at all. I lean heavy into pitching analytics and he only throws two pitch types. I’ve always found it extremely hard to believe you can succeed with such a poor pitching arsenal. With all that being said, I can not stop picking on this White Sox team. They’re striking out at an above average rate and they’re bottom five in the split. They’re struggling to generate any offense at all and Luis Robert hasn’t been healthy. With how uneasy the pitching options are tonight, I definitely like the idea of sliding right past the high end and finding the diamond in the rough that helps us get all the bats we want.
Top Value Pitcher Of The Day
Brandon Pfaadt (RH) vs. Colorado Rockies
Moving onto more extremely uncomfortable plays, I present to you, my favorite pitcher of the night. The start to his young career has been nothing but bad, but the talent has always been there and he is transitioning in the correct direction. He’s gotten better in every major statistic in every month up until this point, so things are beginning to look up, and the price is still extremely cheap. Tonight he gets the best matchup in the entire league against what I believe is the worst offense in the league. On the road over the last 30 days, the Rockies are the second worst offense, with an incredible, league-leading 33.5% K rate. 2nd is 29% just to put that into perspective. You quite literally can not ask for a better spot and it happens to be on a slate where everything feels risky.
