What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle!
Chalk Stack Of The Day
Kansas City Royals vs. Jesse Scholtens (RH)
This one is a little confusing for me from an upside perspective, but also unfortunate, because I liked the Royals quite a bit before diving in fully. The price tags here on these guys are great and they help you get to the pitchers we want. Scholtens is pretty reverse splits as well, which is good here because the guys we want to target are the righties. If you’re playing multiple lineups, I would for sure get into some exposure here. As for single entry, I would lean more into the mini stack or one-off to help construct your best team. I just don’t think this offense has tournament-winning upside by itself, so KC is more of a secondary option for me. My favorites in order are Nelson Velasquez, Bobby Witt, Freddy Fermin, and Maikel Garcia.
Top Stacks Of The Day
Seattle Mariners vs. Cincinnati Reds Bullpen
The Mariners are not my top stack, but they definitely make the list, so I wanted to touch on them first because this is where I thought and still kinda think a majority of the ownership is going today. I think the Royals with Mariners will be the chalk donkey build of the day, so I don’t want to build directly on that path unless you’re using a mini stack or one-off to differentiate. To be completely honest, we don’t even know who’s pitching today for the Reds. The only thing we know is that Tejay Antone will be opening and he’s coming fresh off Tommy John, so I wouldn’t expect much from him. After that we could see Daniel Duarte throw a couple innings, but in all seriousness we are throwing blind darts. I am generally not a huge fan of bullpen games because you can pick and choose the matchups, but the Reds have one of the worst bullpens in the entire league with the second highest xFip. Given the circumstances, it’s hard to even recommend anyone over the next, but more or less just play the best bats. Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford, Teoscar Hernandez, Cal Raleigh, and Eugenio Suarez.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Bryan Woo (RH)
This is the spot I’m looking to get different today and it’s in the most hitter-friendly environment of the day. I’m not really sure why no one is playing them, but we know how bad Woo is against lefties and the Reds don’t have a ton of them, but they have a few good ones and that’s where I will be investing. My favorites in order are Jake Fraley, Elly Cruz, TJ Friedl, and Will Benson.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Peter Lambert (RH)
The D-backs have not been this powerhouse team they were to start the year, which is why we have laid off them a little lately, but today is definitely a high upside spot. Lambert is atrocious against both sides of the plate and doesn’t miss very many bats. There will be tons of contact here and the power hitters are on red alert. My favorites in order are Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel, and Christian Walker.
Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day
Justin Steele (LH) vs. San Francisco Giants
Pitching today is an absolute nuke, so I wouldn’t necessarily say anyone is a stone cold lock, but there are a few that tower above the rest and that starts with Steele. Over the last 30 days, the Giants have the league’s highest K rate against left handed pitching. The win is no guarantee with Webb on the other side, but I think he’s got a good shot to get it. The price is steep, but it’s hard to argue with it.
Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day
Merrill Kelly (RH) vs. Colorado Rockies
Kelly is undoubtedly the top pitcher of the night for me against this putrid Rockies team that he mowed down a month ago in Colorado. Now he’s at home and he’s still a bargain at his current price point. Over the last 30 days away from Coors Field, they lead the league with a 32.6% K rate in the split. I think Kelly is the safest play of the entire slate. I think he’s got all the potential to be the highest scoring pitcher of the slate. He’s going to walk into a quality start and the win. He checks all the boxes and the only reason I see fit to getting away from him is for savings to help with builds, but most of my exposure will be here today.
Top Value Pitcher Of The Day
Cole Ragans (LH) vs. Chicago White Sox
Let’s just get this out of the way right now. What is DraftKings doing with his price tag? I understand there’s variance in baseball, but how do you fade a $7.2k Ragans as a SP2 on DraftKings? By now I think most of you have realized I will be picking on the White Sox more often than not. By now you also probably know I love me a nice reverse splits pitcher. Well, Ragans is exactly that and he gets the moldy White Sox, who have the second highest K rate in the split over the last 30 days. The White Sox are likely rolling out seven right handed bats against Ragans today and that is quite literally a mistake. If you’re playing on FanDuel today, the decision between Ragans and Kelly will be tough and I love both of them equally per dollar, which is why you need multiple lineups. If you’re making me choose, I’m going to lean Kelly because as incredible as Ragans has been, the sample is still too small and he could regress at any moment.
