What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle!
Chalk Stack Of The Day
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Ty Blach (LH)
What’s a better way to make my triumphant return than a Coors slate with the Jays in an absolutely nuclear spot against Ty Blach?! This matchup is so extremely unfortunate because the Jays look really good tonight, checking off pretty much all the boxes for me. Over the last 30 days they have one of the lowest K rates in the split and Blach does not miss bats, so there will be tons of contact tonight. The only bad thing for the Jays tonight is that Blach can induce ground balls, but the counterpoint to that is the Jays also have one of the lowest ground ball rates in the league to go with one of the highest fly ball rates in the league.
I’m not really sure how the Jays fail here and I will be playing into them, but given the spots other teams are in, I’m not going to get too crazy here. The ONLY reason I think fading them is viable is that there are other teams on the slate at much lower ownership that can produce their upside, but that doesn’t make the Jays any less of a stack tonight. Davis Schneider looks like one of the best plays of the entire slate, and unfortunately, he very well could be the highest-owned bat of the night. He would be my favorite, followed by Danny Jansen, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero.
Top Stacks Of The Day
Atlanta Braves vs. Emmet Sheehan (RH)
This is so boring and old, but I HAVE to list them because, as usual, they look good. It seems since I left they haven’t skipped a beat and this is why we play multiple lineups. You should have at least one Braves stack for exposure and then absolutely look into any one-offs you can fit in your builds. As usual, stack them up anyway you can.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colin Rea (RH)
Over the last 30 days, the Phillies are red hot as the league’s top offense in the split and their power has been through the roof. Just to put it in perspective, in that span they have a .267 ISO and the team ranked second has a .220 ISO. Rea is someone I have been waiting for the collapse on all year because he is really bad against left handed hitting, which is perfect for this matchup. He’s not missing any bats and serving up all the fly balls. I have no idea how Kyle Schwarber isn’t donging tonight and he’s one of my favorite plays of the night. All of the lefties are the top plays here, but 1-9 is firmly in play. My favorites in order are Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, and Bryson Stott.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Slade Cecconi (RH)
On the surface, Cecconi has pitched very well, but it’s pretty blatantly obvious it’s all a hoax and he’s due for some serious regression. Against left handed hitting, he’s got a .250 woba, which is really good, but the issue here is that he’s got a 10% K rate to go with a 50% flyball rate. That is quite literally not sustainable and it will catch up to him sooner rather than later. That “sooner” will be tonight when the O’s tee off on him. My favorites in order are Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Ryan O’Hearn.
Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day
Blake Snell (LH) vs. San Francisco Giants
Blake Snell very clearly stands alone at the top for me in a very favorable matchup against the Giants, who have the second highest K rate in the split over the last 30 days. We also get him at home, where he’s been better all year. I think Snell is the highest scoring pitcher at the end of the night, but the price is adjusted for it. If you can afford him comfortably, I’d prefer you pay up for him, but the savings below are also viable given the upside of the high-end stacks tonight.
Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day
Hunter Brown (RH) vs. New York Yankees
Brown has not been very good to us all year, but we are back for more pain. The Yankees have actually been quite good at home against lefties, but tonight we get them on the road against a right handed pitcher, where they violently struggle. Since August 1st they have been a bottom-three offense in the split with the fifth highest K rate. They don’t really have a ton of ways to do some serious damage, so it’s going to be more difficult for Brown to implode in this spot, which makes him very safe for me. I also think he’s comfortably in line for the win tonight. He shouldn’t be very sneaky tonight, but with the discount on Snell, it’s hard not to love Brown as my favorite per-dollar play of the night, despite probably trailing Snell in fantasy points when it’s all said and done.
Top Value Pitcher Of The Day
Reese Olson (RH) vs. Chicago White Sox
This matchup is beginning to be a rollercoaster of a ride and it’s not as good as it was last month, but at the end of the day, this team stinks. Over the last 30 days they are bottom 10 in the split and top 10 in K rate. Olson has been pretty good to both sides of the plate, but better against right handed hitting and the White Sox should have 6-7 of them in the lineup. We also saw Olson surpass 100 pitches in his last start, which is a good sign that his leash is being lengthened. This is a direct pivot off of what I think will be bad David Peterson chalk on both sites. The only issue is that on FanDuel, Peterson is $1700 cheaper than Olson, which will make him “fine” for me, but really not too excited about the spot. It would be a price only play for me on FanDuel, and at only $1k cheaper on DraftKings, I definitely prefer Olson.
