ABER’s 8/22/23 MLB Breakdown

ABER's MLB Daily Fantasy Plays

What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle! 

Chalk Stack Of The Day

Atlanta Braves vs. Tylor Megill (RH)
Tonight I welcome you to the purest thing in all of baseball, the Braves as chalk. There’s quite literally nothing I can do to ever say they’re bad chalk when the only days they’re not in play are the ones in which they don’t play at all. You just have to ask yourself, if I am fading them, is there a team that has their upside tonight? Probably not. Is there a way for me to play into this chalk and still get different? Yes, you can. Are they affordable enough to not have to punt pitcher with how expensive the Braves are? Yes, they are. As usual with the Braves, stack them anyway you can get them and fade at your own risk!

Top Stacks Of The Day

Washington Nationals vs. Carlos Rodon (LH)
It’s a Nasty Nats day! What world are we living in that they are coming in tonight as the lowest owned team of the entire slate? This is a prime example of why there is, and will always be, an edge in DFS baseball. People following the projections and optos are extremely flawed in their thinking and this is a prime example. The Nats are a top 10 offense in the split, playing in one of the three most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. What makes this even better is that Rodon is not missing bats anywhere near the rate he has in the past and the Nats have the second-lowest K rate in the split. There will be balls in play all night here and there will be dongs. My favorite plays in order are Riley Adams, Lane Thomas, Stone Garrett, Kiebert Ruiz, and Joey Meneses.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Noah Syndergaard (RH)
Once every five days we have the honor of seeing Noah on the mound. This isn’t your traditional spot that you would love to use teams with speed against him, seeing as the Dodgers are bottom 10 in steals, but quite frankly, anyone can run on him. All speed aside, Noah is just really bad against both sides of the plate and he’s not missing bats. As much as this is also a revenge game for Noah, it’s more about how the Dodgers know how bad he is. 1-9 is firmly in play for me and my favorites in order are Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, and Will Smith.

Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day

Blake Snell (LH) vs. Miami Marlins
Recently the Marlins have slowly regressed into a team we can pick on again. They’re not nearly as bad as they used to be, but they’re bottom 10 in the split and middle of the pack in the K rate. Blake Snell is a different kind of breed at home as well, with a 32.7% K rate as opposed to his 29.2% on the road. I love the idea of getting away from the chalk in the mid tier tonight and getting up to Snell with the Nasty Nats as value.

Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day

Lucas Giolito (RH) vs. Cincinnati Reds
This is likely where most of the ownership will go tonight and I don’t dislike it at all. The Reds are obviously young, fun, and exciting, but with that comes really bad plate discipline. There’s no one in the league that has been striking out more than the Reds in the split since the beginning of August. They’re away from Cincinnati, the price tag is great, and the pitching tonight is not very good. Don’t be afraid to eat this chalk tonight.

Top Value Pitcher Of The Day

Grayson Rodriguez (RH) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
This is primarily a SP2 only play because the price is a little tougher to swallow on FanDuel. The matchup is a roller coaster depending on how you look at it. From a strikeout perspective, the Jays have always struck out at a low rate, but lately it’s been a bit higher, but nothing bad, but in general they have struggled to produce any offense at all over the last month. BUT, we know the upside the Jays have, and any given day, they can blow up anyone, which is why I’m reserving him for a SP2 only. I don’t see a reason to dig into the value tier on FanDuel today.

Also Check Out: 4Deep’s MLB Quick Hits


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