What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle!
Chalk Stack Of The Day
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Ty Blach (RH)
This is the easiest fade of the day for me with the Braves coming in with similar ownership and being the superior stack by far. The D-backs have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league over the last month and a half. If you want to play into them, I would just focus on the lefties.
Top Stacks Of The Day
Atlanta Braves vs. Luis Severino (RH)
They’re going to slaughter Severino tonight. As usual, stack them anyway you can, but at this point I don’t think you can stack them without Nicky Lopez.
Minnesota Twins vs. Alex Faedo (RH)
The Twins strike out more than anyone else in the league, which is why we tend to target them more often than not, but what we don’t talk about is how good they have actually been. Since the beginning of July, the Twins have the sixth-best offense in the split and Faedo is facing them in back to back starts. Clearly, the Twins’ downfall is the swing and misses, but Faedo only has a 18% K rate against lefties, which is where we will look to target him. My favorites in order are Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and unfortunately, I’m fine with Joey Gallo for value. for value.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Spenser Watkins (RH)
I am going to continue to pick on the era of O’s pitchers that I used to pick on, even when they’re not on the team anymore. Watkins has not yet pitched in the majors this year, and for good reason. In 20 IP in the minors, he’s rocking a 9.74 ERA and a 6.40 xfip, to go with his 15% K rate. He’s never missed bats in his career and pitching to the barrel of these guys’ bats will result in dongs. My favorite plays in order are Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, and Paul Goldschmidt.
Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day
Bailey Ober (RH) vs. Detroit Tigers
There’s tons of options tonight and none of them look great. Ober is the clear-cut top guy for me outside of the back to back red flag. The bonus to that is no one will be playing him tonight. Despite giving up four runs last start, he did strike out nine, so the upside is there. The Tigers continue to be bad, but their K rates have slightly dropped over the last 6-7 weeks. The matchup is still great. Unfortunately, he’s my preferred pitcher of the night, but I will have exposure to guys below. It’s likely a night where I spread out my exposure.
Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day
Kyle Hendricks (RH) vs. Chicago White Sox
Hendricks does not really fit my style because he just flat out doesn’t miss bats, so his upside is extremely capped. The only way he can get there for us is to pitch deeper into the game, which seems likely tonight. This White Sox team stinks and is one of the best matchups in the league for right handed pitchers. Since the beginning of July, they have the second-worst offense in the split with the eighth-highest K rate. I like Hendricks to pitch deep into this game for an easy quality start and win.
Top Value Pitcher Of The Day
Jordan Lyles (RH) vs. Seattle Mariners
Jordan Lyles has some potential to be one of the best per dollar pitchers of the night. The Mariners are so unpredictable at this point in the season, as they got dominated by Singer last night. They have the fourth-highest K rate in the split, which means something has to give here. The price tag here is super nice and it helps you get to the bats you want on a tough pitching slate.
If weather remains safe, I like David Peterson as well.
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