Ambetter Health 400
Atlanta Motor Speedway
Sunday 2/25/24 3:00 PM
1.54 mile, Paved
Hello 4Deep. NASCAR at Atlanta, which is a mile and a half track. This is a 260-lap event.
Last Race Notables: Byron won. Almirola led 46 laps, Buescher led 39 laps, Blaney led 20 laps, Byron and Kes led 19 laps, Logano led 11 laps. Start/Finish: 18/1 Byron, 26/2 Suarez, 19/3 Allmendinger, 20/4 McDowell, 22/5 Busch, 24/7 Yeley, 29/10 Stenhouse, 25/11 Jones, 23/13 Elliott.
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps means less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likelihood that you need to roster two or three of them and really separate them from the pack.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
| Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
| Blaney | 160 | Byron | 2023 | Byron | 171 | Elliott | 6.7 |
| Logano | 125 | Logano | 2023 | Logano | 163 | Jones | 9.3 |
| Byron | 125 | Elliott | 2022 | Elliott | 125 | Allmendinger | 9.5 |
| Elliott | 124 | Byron | 2022 | Chastain | 79 | Blaney | 9.5 |
| Suarez | 122 | Kurt Busch | 2021 | Almirola | 69 | Kes | 9.5 |
| Cindric | 120 | Blaney | 2021 | Kes | 66 | Suarez | 10.3 |
| Jones | 117 | Harvick | 2020 | Buescher | 44 | Haley | 12 |
| Chastain | 107 | Kes | 2019 | Blaney | 42 | Busch | 12.5 |
| Haley | 104 | Harvick | 2018 | Truex | 37 | Chastain | 13 |
| Bell | 99 | Kes | 2017 | Stenhouse | 31 | Logano | 13.3 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Top Tier Above $9500:
- Ryan Blaney ($10,200) – Starting 6th.
- William Byron ($10,000) – Starting 11th.
- Chase Elliott ($9,800) – Starting 28th.
- Joey Logano ($10,300) – Starting 2nd.
Mid Tier $7500-$9500:
- Brad Keselowski ($9,300) – Starting 24th.
- Ross Chastain ($8,600) – Starting 21st.
- Martin Truex, Jr ($9,000) – Starting 12th.
- Chris Buescher ($8,300) – Starting 7th.
- Erik Jones ($8,000) – Starting 37th.
Sleepers Under $7500:
- Daniel Suarez ($7,300) – Starting 23rd.
- John H. Nemechek ($6,200) – Starting 34th.
- Corey Lajoie ($6,800) – Starting 32nd.
- Ricky Stenhouse ($7,500) – Starting 27th.
For More GOAT Bets: See Today’s Plays
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or @GOAT in Discord.
