Daytona 500
Daytona International Speedway
Moved to Monday 2/19/24 4:00 PM
2.5 mile, Paved
Here it is. Finally time. NASCAR 2024!! I told you I was making a stand this year and not touting the exhibition shit. It’s entertaining, but nearly impossible to predict and anyone that tells you different is just lying………..and as you all know me, that isn’t what I do! This is the Super Bowl of NASCAR. Let me warn you now, the last few laps everything will change, so make sure you’re strapped in for the end of the race. LET’S GOOOOOOOAAAAAATTTTTT!!!!
“The Big One” – A wreck that takes out a large number of drivers. This is due to the high speed and how close the cars run at superspeedway……Get ready, it will happen. Not a question of if……but when. If your drivers can avoid it, you could be in good shape, if not…………….Sorry! This wreck typically happens at the end of the race as drivers get more aggressive.
Strategy for the Superspeedways. Talladega and Daytona. Pick one or two drivers to win it, then fill the rest of your lineup with drivers from the back. Salary doesn’t matter at these tracks……………..let me repeat myself………….SALARY DOES NOT MATTER AT THE SUPERSPEEDWAYS AND YOU CAN LEAVE ANY AMOUNT ON THE TABLE!
Alright……..let’s do this!!
Last Race Notables: Buescher won. 17 different lap leaders. Briscoe led 67 laps, Chastain led 19 laps, Harvick led 14 laps, Hamlin led 12 laps, Logano led 9 laps laps. Start/Finish: Buescher 11/1, Kes 12/2, Elliott 23/4, Bowman 31/6, Busch 18/7, Byron 27/8, LaJoie 37/10, Ty Dillon 30/11, McDowell 39/13, Hill 26/14, Smith 36/15, Yeley 33/19.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
Logano | 164 | Buescher | 2023 | Kes | 115 | Ragan | 8.5 |
Truex Jr | 143 | Stenhouse | 2023 | Briscoe | 72 | Cassill | 9.5 |
Busch | 132 | A. Dillon | 2022 | Busch | 46 | Logano | 10 |
Wallace | 130 | Cindric | 2022 | Blaney | 41 | Busch | 10.5 |
Buescher | 125 | Blaney | 2021 | Logano | 36 | Wallace | 11.3 |
Kes | 123 | McDowell | 2021 | Buescher | 35 | Buescher | 12 |
Bowman | 115 | Byron | 2020 | Cindric | 34 | Bowman | 12.3 |
Cindric | 113 | Hamlin | 2010 | Elliott | 33 | Ware | 12.3 |
Almirola | 103 | Haley | 2019 | Hamlin | 31 | Almirola | 12.5 |
Harvick | 93 | Hamlin | 2019 | Truex Jr | 29 | Truex Jr | 15 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Note: I will be going with many lineups that have the strategy of picking two drivers that can win, and a bunch of guys starting in the back who will avoid the “big one” and finish well because of it. Leaving money on the table here is not a big deal at all……any amount!
Top Tier:
- Kyle Busch ($9,700) – Starting 34th.
- Ryan Blaney ($9,800) – Starting 32nd.
- Denny Hamlin ($10,000) – Starting 8th.
- Joey Logano($9,200) – Starting 1st.
Mid Tier:
- William Byron($8,700) – Starting 18th.
- Chris Bell ($8,300) – Starting 4th.
- Ricky Stenhouse ($8,000) – Starting 35th.
- Bubba Wallace ($8,500) – Starting 24th.
Sleepers:
- Cory LaJoie ($6,000) – Starting 29th.
- Austin Dillon ($7,300) – Starting 33rd.
- AJ Allmendinger ($6,200) – Starting 28th.
- David Ragan ($6,500) – Starting 40th.
For More GOAT Bets: See Today’s Plays
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or @GOAT in Discord.