Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:
Today’s UFC 297 event is now a 12-fight card starting at 6:30PM with the early prelims airing on ESPN+, followed by the featured prelims on ESPN News at 8:00 and the Main Card starting at 10:00PM on PPV. We have seven total bets! Enjoy the UFC 297 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord at 3:30pm EST
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick
Notes:
- Gordon is 14-7 with 11 wins by finish. “X” was stopped in all 7 of his losses.
- Flick is 16-7 with 14 wins by submission. “The Brick” was KO in 6 of his 7 losses.
Analysis:
This is a matchup between two fighters on two-fight losing streaks and most likely fighting to save their jobs, as the loser most likely gets his walking papers. Gordon is a low volume striker with major durability issues, and he has been finished in all seven of his losses. Flick, like Gordon, also has durability concerns and was KO in six of his seven losses. “The Brick” is a very good grappler, as evidenced by his 14 submission victories in his 16 wins and is also a strong wrestler. I do not anticipate this fight to see the judges’ scorecards and I favor Flick to get the win with his superior wrestling and Jiu Jitsu. I bet the fight to end inside the distance and used it in a parlay.
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Priscila Cachoeira (women’s)
Notes:
- Jasudavicius is 9-3 with 3 wins by finish.
- Cachoeira is 12-5 with 7 wins by KO. “Zombie Girl” was submitted in 3 of her 5 losses.
Analysis:
Jasmine Jasudavicius is one of three fighters from Niagara Top Team fighting on this card, alongside her teammates Mike Malott and UFC newcomer, Serhiy Sidey. Priscila Cachoeira is coming off a submission loss her last time out, snapping a two-fight winning streak. “Zombie Girl” is a very powerful striker with seven of her 12 wins by knockout, but the buck stops there as she is awful in the grappling department, which could be a huge problem here vs. Jasudavicius, a very strong grappler with an Olympic-level wrestling background. Jasudavicius is not great in the pure distance striking exchanges, however, she is very good in the clinch and will often bull her opponents up against the cage in addition to getting takedowns and control time from the top in the grappling exchanges. This fight has a binary outcome, as either Cachoeira lands a big KO for the win or repeatedly gets taken down and controlled by Jasudavicius. I like Jasmine to be able to use her strong wrestling to blow through the below average takedown defense of Cachoeira and earn a dominant victory, if not a finish. I bet Jasudavicius and used her in a parlay.
Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson
Notes:
- Lainesse is 9-2 with 6 wins by KO. “White Lion” was stopped in both of his losses.
- Patterson is 10-2-1 with 9 wins by finish. “The Future” was KO in both of his losses.
Analysis:
Sam Patterson lost his UFC debut by first round knockout his last time out and is a kill or be killed fighter, with all but one of his 12 fights ending by finish. Yohan Lainesse is a low volume striker with a 1-2 UFC record and was finished in both of his losses. “White Lion” is a one dimensional striker with decent power, but has poor cardio and has gassed out in all his fights the longer the fight goes on. Patterson is moving up a weight class and will have a two-inch height and reach advantage in this matchup. “The Future” has decent striking, utilizing a solid jab and good leg kick, but his strength is his grappling. Like Lainesse, Patterson’s durability is a concern, but I like his size and overall skillset to prevail, as I think he will either get the finish with strikes on the feet or on the ground via a submission or ground and pound. Once Lainesse gets extended, he will wilt. I like Patterson and was pleasantly surprised that he was the underdog here. I bet Patterson +125, risking 1 to win 1.25 units.
Gilian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana (women’s)
Notes:
- Robertson is 12-8 with 10 wins by finish, including 9 by submission. “The Savage” was stopped in 2 of her 8 losses.
- Viana is 13-6 with all 13 wins by finish. Polyana was stopped in 2 of her 6 losses.
Analysis:
Both fighters are grapplers coming into this fight off a loss. Gilian Robertson is a black belt in BJJ with good wrestling and prefers to get the fight to the ground as quickly as possible, where she has excellent top control and submissions. Viana will be the better striker of the two and can hold her own on the ground, but lacks in the wrestling department and is known to concede takedowns and then hunt for submissions off her back, which would be a problem here vs. “the Savage,” who, as mentioned, excels from top position. Robertson beats who she should and struggles with faster, more athletic opponents who can also wrestle. Those metrics don’t fit Viana, and I think Robertson will be the bully here. I bet on Robertson and used her in a parlay.
Serhiy Sidey vs. Ramon Taveras
Notes:
- Sidey is 10-1 with 8 wins by finish, including 7 by KO. Serhiy is making his UFC debut.
- Taveras is 9-2 with 8 wins by finish. “The Savage” was KO in both of his losses.
Analysis:
This is a rematch from an earlier fight on Contender Series that was stopped prematurely, resulting in a controversial ending. In the half a round of action that we did see, Sidey dropped Taveras. Sidey is a striker, with seven of his 10 wins by KO and is the striking coach at his home gym. Taveras is a southpaw striker who prefers a rangy, counter-striking style, which includes powerful body kicks that he mixes up very well with his punches. I like this rematch between two strikers and believe that Sidey is the more well-rounded fighter and Taveras is the less durable of the two, although he has power to put Sidey’s lights out. I like violence in this spot, as I think both men will bang until only one is left standing. I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it in a parlay.
Charles Jourdain vs. Sean Woodson
Notes:
- Jourdain is 15-6-1 with 13 wins by finish. “Air” was submitted in 1 of his 6 losses.
- Woodson is 10-1-1 with 4 wins by submission. “The Sniper” was submitted in his only loss.
Analysis:
Charles Jourdain is on a two-fight winning streak and is 5-5-1 in his 11 UFC fights and Sean Woodson is on a three-fight winning streak with a DRAW sandwiched in between. Jourdain is a very fast striker who fights at a high pace and has capable grappling. Woodson is huge for the division and will have a definitive five-inch height and nine-inch reach advantage vs. the three-years-younger Jourdain. “The Sniper” uses his size and length well, utilizing a solid jab and good overall boxing. I like Jourdain here, who will be fighting in front of a home crowd, to land the bigger shots and use his overall athleticism to get the win. I bet Jourdain and used him in a parlay.
Brad Katona vs. Garrett Armfield
Notes:
- Katona is 13-2 with 4 wins by finish.
- Armfield is 9-3 with 8 wins by finish, including 6 wins by KO. Garrett was submitted in 2 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:
Brad Katona looked very good in his last fight, a decisive unanimous decision victory in his return fight to the UFC after winning “The Ultimate Fighter” for the second time. Katona had an earlier 2-2 run in the UFC between 2018-2019. Garrett Armfield is a striker with good power and has decent wrestling, but lacks in the cardio department, which is never good, especially vs. a high volume striker. I think Katona will be the more technical striker and will have the veteran savvy to avoid the big shot needed from Armfield to get the win and will take over the longer the fight goes. I bet Katona and used him in a parlay.
Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev
Notes:
- Allen is 19-2 with 11 wins by finish.
- Evloev is 17-0 with 7 wins by finish.
Analysis:
This is a great fight between Arnold Allen and the undefeated 17-0, Movsar Evloev. Allen lost time out to give him his first UFC loss after a perfect 10-0 run. Evloev was in some trouble in his last fight, but persevered to stay unbeaten. Evloev is a relentless wrestler, averaging over five takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon and has excellent cardio and endurance. Allen is very well-rounded, with good striking and grappling, but is a low output fighter who leaves too many rounds close due to his limited output. I think the wrestling of Evloev will consistently keep Allen on his back foot and even limit his striking output further. If Evloev rinses and repeats his wrestling, as I expect him to, and Allen is not striking on the feet and spending a lot of time on his back, Evloev will win a dominant, grappling-heavy decision. That is good for a bet and good in DFS. I bet Evloev and used him in a parlay.
Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Notes:
- Curtis is 30-10 with 18 wins by finish, including 17 by KO. “The Action Man” was stopped in 2 of his 10 losses.
- Barriault is 16-6 with 11 wins by finish, including 10 by KO. “Power Bar” was stopped in 2 of his 6 losses.
Analysis:
This is a striker vs. striker matchup between Chris Curtis and Marc-Andre Barriault, who combine for 27 KO’s in their 29 combined wins by finish. Curtis is a main training partner of Sean Strickland, and they were in fight camp daily side by side and you know Curtis will be fight-ready. Barriault is a very strong, high volume striker who is good from distance and in the clinch. Curtis is a southpaw with a counter boxing style, which oft leads to low output, and he has very good takedown defense, which will not come into play here vs. another striker. Barriault will be fighting in front of his home crowd here, but I like Curtis to get the win. I bet Curtis and used him in a parlay.
Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott
Notes:
- Magny is 28-11 with 11 wins by finish. “The Haitian Sensation” was stopped in 8 of his 11 losses.
- Malott is 10-1-1 with all 10 wins by finish. “Proper” was KO in his only loss.
Analysis:
Mike Malott is a very well-rounded fighter and someone who I have bet and won on in his last two UFC fights after I saw him beat Mickey Gall. Malott will be fighting in front of his home crowd and is a powerful striker and excellent grappler. Neil Magny is a longtime UFC fighter, but now at 36 years old, is relatively a gatekeeper and has been fed to top prospects Ian Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov and now, for what I foresee, Malott. Magny has been good for a very long time, but it is what it is at this point. I think Malott filets Magny here by whatever means that he chooses. I bet on Malott and used him in a parlay.
Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (women’s)
Notes:
- Pennington is 15-8 with 5 wins by finish. “Rocky” was stopped in 2 of her 8 losses.
- Silva is 10-2-1 with 8 wins by finish, including 7 by submission.
Analysis:
Raquel Pennington is a longtime UFC fighter and now at 35 years old with a 15-8 record, will get another shot at a Championship title. What a sad state of affairs for Women’s MMA if she were to become Champion. Mayra Bueno Silva is 5-2-2 in her nine UFC contests, with wins via armbar submission. Pennington is a grinder who will look to push Silva up against the fence and bore the crowd and viewers to tears, whereas Silva is a finisher and will be looking to fight. That alone makes me root for Silva, however, Pennington is very durable and has only been finished in two of her eight losses. I like Silva to win, but really don’t want to bet on this fight. I will gain exposure to Silva through my DFS lineups. Pass, No Bet.
Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Notes:
- Strickland is 28-5 with 15 wins by finish, including 11 by KO. “Tarzan” was KO in 2 of his 5 losses.
- Du Plessis is 20-2 with 19 wins by finish. “Stillknocks” was stopped in both of his losses.
Analysis:
What a great Main Event! So much has happened already between these two, as they got in to a ringside scuffle with punches exchanged at a recent UFC event. Strickland will be defending his belt for the first time after becoming Champion with a lopsided unanimous decision victory over Israel Adesanya his last time out. Dricus Du Plessis is undefeated in the UFC with a 6-0 record and five wins by finish. “Stillknocks” has an awkward, herky-jerky style of striking, but has big power and has also shown that he can grapple. Strickland fights at a very high pace, using a boxing style consisting of forward pressure and an exceptional jab. Although we rarely see it, Strickland has a decent grappling game and I think it will be tested here by Du Plessis, who I think has the advantage in that department. I really like Strickland, but I think Du Plessis will get it done. I bet Du Plessis -105, risking 1.05 to win 1 unit.
UFC 297 – Official Bets:
- 6:30: Flick/Gordon fight ITD, Jourdain, Malott parlay +145 (2 to win 2.9 units)
- 6:30: Flick/Gordon fight ITD, Curtis, Malott parlay +150 (2 to win 3 units)
- 7:00: Jasudavicius/Robertson parlay -144 (4.31 to win 3 units)
- 7:30: Patterson +125 (1 to win 1.25 units)
- 8:30: Sidey/Taveras fight ITD/Katona parlay -102 (2.04 to win 2 units)
- 10:00: Evloev/Malott parlay -102 (3.06 to win 3 units)
- 12:00: Du Plessis -105 (1.05 to win 1 unit)
