⚽ EPL Slate – 12/2/23 ⚽
We have a small three-game slate on Saturday with Arsenal being massive favorites coming off a massive win in the Champions League. Wolves have historically been a tough team to play against. I think that trend continues. The chalk will be stacking Arsenal. I’ll be looking to Brentford and Burnley as cheap options.
If you have any lineup questions, ask me @Zab in Discord before lock!
UPDATES:
Scoring Notes:
- If you are playing on FanDuel, you’re searching for the goals. Goals count for 15 points, and shots are worth one point. Shots on goal are worth five, while assists are seven.
- For defenders, I like looking at cheap center mids who will be on the defensive. I target these players because they will rack up tackles and clearances. Occasionally will pop up with a cheap goal, also.
- If you are playing on DraftKings, goals are worth 10 points, shots are one, and shots on goal are one. Assists are worth six points.
- Playing on DK you want to look for set piece-takers and players that will be crossing the ball. Defenders won’t get as many points for tackles and clearances, so I’m targeting defenders who play on the outside who will move up and cross the ball in.
Matches:
Arsenal -320 vs. Wolves +900
- Match total 2.5 with the juice on the over -150
- Ars team total over 1.5 -245 and under 2.5 -170
- Wol team total over 0.5 goal -110 and under 1.5 goals -800
*** betting lean over 2.5 goals
Brentford -270 vs. Luton Town +550
- Match total is 2.5 with the juice on the over at -135
- Bre team total over 1.5 goals -180 and under 2.5 goals -235
- Lut team total over 0.5 goal -160 and under 1.5 goals -475
**Betting leans over 2.5 / Bre ML / Mbeumo AGS / Maupay to record a point.
Burnley -270 vs. Sheffield United +340
- Match total 2.5 goals with the juice on the under -120
- Bur team total over 1.5 goals -110 and under 1.5 goals -120
- Shu team total over 0.5 goal -205 and under 1.5 goal -350
*** betting leans under 2.5 goals / btts – no
Main Targets:
- Saka (ars) (m/f) 10500 – Does it all for Arsenal. Monopoly of sets always a threat for a goal/assist.
- Martinelli (ars) (m/f) 10000 – 29 crosses and 5 shots over the last four games gives him a solid floor. Hasn’t scored in premier league play since early October, but scored this past week in champion league play.
- Jesus (ars) (ars) (f) 8500 – Has only scored one goal in premier league play, but has been a force in champions league play. Always a threat for a brace, though.
- Mbeumo (bre) (m/f) 9700 – One of my top plays of the slates, Mbeumo is a slate breaker and likes to beat up on these weaker sides.
- Maupay (bre) (f) 8400 – Great pairing with Mbeumo as a GPP stack. I think most of the ownership goes to Arsenal this weekend, letting Brentford attackers coming in under owned against a weak Luton side.
- Wissa (bre) (m/f) 6800 – Hasn’t made a big dent on the goals/assists score sheet lately, but could be a solid opportunity for him to get on the score sheet.
- Doughty (lut) (m) 6600 – 31 crosses in last 4, Luton should be down early and will be playing more open, which should lean to more crosses. Solid value piece.
- Gudmundsson (bur) (m/f) 7300 – 20 crosses / 5 shots in last 3 games. Getting back to his form. Matter of time before he gets a goal/assist. In a good spot vs. a week Sheffield United squad.
- Rodriguez (bur) (m/f) 6000 – Takes pens for burnley, can pair him up with Gudmundsson for a GPP stack. But other than that, no real interest.
- Amdouni (bur) (f) 5100 – Cheap forward option vs. weak shu side. Won’t play a full 90.
- Norwood (shu) (m) 5500 – Going to score around that 8-10 point mark. Could pop up a goal against a Burnley side that’s known for conceding, but not expecting much from this game.
- McBurnie (shu) (f) 5500 – Price is too cheap for a guy that is always a threat to score a goal. Has scored a goal in his first match back. Only played 45 minutes last match. Expecting him to play closer to 70 this match. Great GPP target.
Defense:
- Zinchenko (ars) (d) 5900 – If you’re paying up, he’s your target. Clean sheet upside, open play upside.
- White (ars) (d) 5400 – Another pay up option. Has open play value and clean sheet upside with the biggest favorites on the board.
- Taylor (bur) (d) 4800 – Against these weaker sides he moves up into fires, crosses shots.
- O’Shea (bur) (d) 4000 – Has scored between 2-10 the last 4 matches. Solid matchup.
- Thomas (shu) (d) 3800 – Going to score between 3 and 7 points, like every match.
- Bell (lut) (d) 3000 – Played on the outside last match and we were all over him and he 2x’d his price.
More defensive options will become available after lineups are released.
