What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle!
Top Stacks Of The Day
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RH)
We had finally just gotten to the point where Pfaadt was adjusting to the regular season big leagues and now he’s going into Milwaukee for a playoff game. I don’t really see how this has any route to go well for him. The Brewers have been a top 10 offense in the split and this is the most hitter-friendly ballpark of the day. My favorite plays in order are Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Mark Canha, and William Contreras, but we will likely lean into most of the value today on the Brewers.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jordan Montgomery (LH)
The entire season has been a roller coaster and we used the Rays non-stop in the split against right handed pitching. Today we are doing something we haven’t done too often this year because they have actually done better in this split, ranking fourth overall in the last month. I don’t think Montgomery is anything to be afraid of and he struggles to miss right handed bats, which is where the Rays will load up. My favorite plays in order are Yandy Diaz, Harold Ramirez, Junior Caminero, and Randy Arozarena, but I’m fine with leaning into any right handed bats in this lineup.
Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day
Kevin Gausman (RH) vs. Minnesota Twins
This one kinda sucks for me because I really like the Twins in this series, but today is not the day. They look pretty good with all the surface numbers, but the moment you dive into pitch data, it all goes south. Gausman is a huge split finger pitcher and the Twins can’t touch the pitch. Wallner is the best hitter on the team against right handed pitching and he’s got a 42% K rate against the pitch. Gausman is probably the chalk today, and of course, it looks great. He should have a field day with this game.
Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day
Zack Wheeler (RH) vs. Miami Marlins
On paper this is not a very good matchup, but I think the Marlins are a little overrated. The matchup across the board is very mutual, so that’s not entirely why I’m going this route. It’s not very often you really see a starter pitch super deep into a game like we see during the regular season, but Wheeler is not one of those guys. The Phillies know their bullpen is not good and they will run him into the ground while they can. I think he’s got the longest leash amongst starters, which gives him the safest floor and the price is great. He’s my favorite per dollar play.
Top Value Pitcher Of The Day
Jesus Luzardo (LH) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
There’s not really any value on today’s slate, but Luzardo is the cheapest I’m looking at today. The Phillies are a little scary because I think they have ice in their veins. I’m not sure there’s actual playoff pressure here because of the experience. With that being said, over the last 30 days they’re coming into today’s slate with the highest K rate against either split, so there is some upside here.
