What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle!
Chalk Stack Of The Day
For the first time all season, we’re not going to talk about this. Ownership looks fairly spread out tonight. With Baltimore possibly leading the way, I don’t see any reason to label them “chalk.” Play who you want with no ownership concerns.
Top Stacks Of The Day
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Luis Severino (RH)
At the top of the board, I’m going to target the best hitting conditions on the slate, seeing as ownership isn’t going to be an issue. Severino has been really bad all year and he’s not missing bats. The Brewers are a team we targeted early on, but that is not the case now. They have one of the lowest K rates in the league against right handed pitching over the last 30 days. My favorites in order are Willy Adames, Carlos Santana, William Contreras, and Christian Yelich.
San Diego Padres vs. Hunter Brown (RH)
We have spent so much time on the other side of this, complaining about how bad Brown is and how he’s screwing us over again, so why not lean into the other side for a change? Brown has just not been the same pitcher from the first half to the second half and his numbers keep getting drastically worse every month. He’s got control issues and relies heavily on the strikeout. The Padres don’t strike out much at all, which will put Brown in all sorts of trouble tonight. My favorites in order are Xander Bogaerts, Luis Campusano, Fernando Tatis, and Juan Soto.
Miami Marlins vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LH)
Rounding out today’s stacks with a team I don’t talk about very often. They have made a handful of moves over the last couple months that have actually helped them significantly in this split and they have some guys that crush left handed pitching. I don’t actually want to stack them up too crazy tonight, but I love the mini stack here and I will be using it tonight in a couple lineups. Those two guys are Josh Bell and Jake Burger.
Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day
Kodai Senga (RH) vs. Minnesota Twins
What an absolute smash spot tonight for Senga against the strikeout-heavy Twins. He is absolutely crushing these teams that have never seen him before and the Twins are one of them. I think Senga is the top pitcher of the night, the highest scoring pitcher of the night, and the safest pitcher tonight. I just don’t think he’s the best per-dollar play of the slate, which is what makes the pitching tonight extremely interesting.
Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day
Jordan Montgomery (LH) vs. Oakland Athletics
Montgomery is priority #3 for me tonight, given the price tag is so close to Senga and there’s another guy I love that’s cheaper. Getting Montgomery exposure basically boils down to, do I love my lineup and he fits? The matchup is great here against Oakland, who has the seventh-highest K rate and ranks bottom five in the split over the last 30 days.
Top Value Pitcher Of The Day
Kyle Harrison (LH) vs. Colorado Rockies
If you haven’t figured it out yet, Harrison is my favorite pitcher of the night. Obviously the high end is always great to have, but I preach about taking down tournaments with the cheaper pitchers that have ceiling games, and that’s Harrison tonight.
The Rockies on the road over the last 30 days are the worst offense in the league against left handed pitching and they’re so much worse than the team above them. To go with that, they’re also striking out at one of the highest rates.
Through three starts, Harrison has a 40% K rate against right handed hitting and the Rockies will be running out seven of them. The sky is the limit tonight for him and we are riding with him to the moon.
