Volpe’s NFL Showdown Plays – Lions at Chiefs:
? Thursday Night Showdown 9/7/23 ?
Lions @ Chiefs | 8:20 PM EST
Chiefs -4 | Over/Under 52.5
Home Field advantage will be in full effect as the Superbowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions in the first game of the 2023 NFL Season. Patrick Mahomes has been elite in season openers. Over the past four seasons, he has thrown for 16 touchdowns and just one interception. In addition to his great week 1 history, the Lions allowed the most fantasy points to the QB position in 2022.
The Lions proved to be a scrappy team last season and have gained a lot of hype into this season. Goff finished his last nine games of 2022 with 15 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. It is worth noting that the Lions have lost both season openers under Dan Campbell and will play in a tough road environment to start 2023.
⭐ Notable Info ⭐
- Travis Kelce OUT hyperextended his knee in practice on Tuesday 9/5.
- Chiefs DT Chris Jones is still holding out. They traded for DT Neil Farrell in an attempt to fill his void.
- Kadarius Toney was announced good to go by head coach Andy Reid – 9/4/23. Coming off of a torn meniscus in training camp.
- Lions star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is dealing with a minor ankle injury, but he is expected to play.
- In 2022, the Chiefs’ Defense allowed the most receptions to the running back position (110) and the 4th most receiving yards to the RB position (796). Gibbs is in a really good spot against a defense that allowed an average of 6.5 receptions and 47 yards per game.
? Key Injuries ?
- KC: OUT: T. Kelce QUES: Chris Jones (DT, holdout) – L. Sneed (CB, knee)
- DET: QUES – E. Moseley (CB) – St. Brown (WR) – F. Ragnow (C, toe)
?️ Weather ?️
- Arrowhead (Outdoors) | 75-81°F, 0% chance of rain, Wind 8-18MPH
? Last Matchup ?
- 9/29/19: Chiefs 34 – Lions 30
? QB Matchups ?
- KC Defense: Ranked 29th | 21.3 FP/G allowed to QBs
- DET Defense: Ranked 32nd | 24.0 FP/G allowed to QBs
? RB Matchups ?
- KC Defense: Ranked 20th | 23.4 FP/G allowed to RBs – 4.4 YPC | 83.2 rushing yards/game | 6.5 receptions/game (most in NFL)
- DET Defense: Ranked 8th | 20.6 FP/G allowed to RBs
? Core Players ?
- Mahomes, Gibbs, Gray
? More of ?
- St. Brown, Goff, Moore
? Best Values ?
- Moore, Gibbs, Gray, Bell
? Less of ?
- MVS, Chiefs DST, Toney, McKinnon
?Players that can win large GPPs ?
- Marvin Jones – Returns back to Lions, first time playing with Goff. WR2.
- Rashee Rice – Third-most preseason receptions, with 14.
- Justyn Ross – Talented rookie receiver who is getting high praise from Mahomes. Will have a package.
- Richie James Jr. – Unsure where the veteran fits in his first year with KC.
- Josh Reynolds – He wasn’t involved much over the last seven games of 2022, but may be needed.
- Khalif Raymond – Did not score a TD last year. Averaged four receptions per game and 38 YPG.
- Antoine Green – Sixth-most preseason receiving yards, with 151.
- Noah Gray – Kelce’s replacement who has flashed at times and is very cheap.
? Prediction ?
- Chiefs 30 – Lions 27
I see the Lions pounding the rock with Gibbs and Montgomery to try to slow down the game a bit and expose the missing piece of Chris Jones. I do believe the Lions did show how competitive they are and expect them to keep it close, but ultimately I don’t think their defense is talented enough to stop Mahomes. If Travis Kelce were to miss, the Lions may have a chance to win outright.
? Bets ?
- Gibbs over receptions
- Moore over receptions
